Will it ever be economically feasible to colonize the solar system?

[The Brain]

Why are people discussing prisoner colonists?

[Neil]

It'll probably take more then 10 years to get those phases done (if at all). Why do all that when you can get an operational mine up and running in northern Canada (for example) in a fraction of that time at a much greater margin. We still have plenty of deposits down here.

Whoever succeeds in mining the asteroids will become richer than Rockefeller (the richest man ever) and revolutionize the world economy. There's no comparison.

You keep saying that, but that's not really true.  Whoever does it will be fined, and might spend some time in prison.

The Outer Space treaty, like many UN treaties is unenforceable. As soon as a company manages to mine an asteroid, their home country will simply tax them.

The US government takes care of the enforcement.  Besides, how do you make a profit when they can't sell what they're mining?

[Neil]

Why are people discussing prisoner colonists?

Strix doesn't understand the expense of space travel.

[Agelastus]

They would just treat it like off-shore gambling. Companies would move to 3rd world locations that haven't signed any treaties. Treaties are just paper and worth about as much.

Gambling isn't outlawed by international treaty.

Nor, as far as I can see from the text of said Outer Space Treaty, is mining by private individuals or companies (nor is it banned for governments, either, in fact, by the terms of the Treaty - what is banned is claiming the territory as sovereign, hence you would have no mechanism to stop someone setting up a mine or colony "next door" as it were.)

It is banned by the "Moon Treaty" - however, since said Treaty has not been ratified by any nation currently capable of launching objects into space, I fail to see who you think is going to enforce this provision - Kazakhstan? Lebanon? The Phillipines?

[Agelastus]

Why are people discussing prisoner colonists?

Strix doesn't understand the expense of space travel.

Strix is assuming two costs are inevitable (the cost of keeping prisoners, and the cost of establishing permanent colonies in space.) If both are inevitable, then using the prisoners as the Colonists is a net saving over the total cost of the two activities regardless of the massive costs of the actual space travel.

But since the cost of establishing permanent colonies in space is not an inevitable cost I don't think his argument holds water at the moment.

[Plus, of course, the percentage of prisoners who would actually have the capacity to be educated and trained to be successful hostile environment colonists is likely to be relatively small anyway.]

[Razgovory]

What do you want from me, I'm trying to explain to a person why it won't be cheaper to build prisons on the fucking moon!

No one has suggested building a prison on the Moon. I suggested using prisoners as indentured colonists ala the British model in Australia. Is that a hard concept for you to understand?

Yes, yes it is.  Cause it doesn't make sense.  For instance, Australia has food, water, and air.  The moon is distinctly lacking in these things.  Second, forced labor worked because there was a demand in unskilled workers.  Anyone working on the Moon will have to be highly skilled.  Third, what exactly are they going to do on the moon?  It's not like it would be profitable to grow moon cotton or something.  Fourth, it's illegal under US law almost certainly unconstitutional.


I brought up the example of Antarctica at the beginning of this thread.  Antarctica is sorta was the great unexplored continent a hundred years ago. It's sorta of like the Moon is to us. Today, it's not difficult to go to Antarctica, yet there are still no cities (or Gulags) there.  Why?  Cause there is nothing there.  The moon (and most of the planets) have the same problem.

I refer you back to the title of the thread. I am talking about colonizing the solar system. I am not sure why you are fixated on the Moon.

You make my point for me. There is nothing to attract people to work in space, so the use of prisoners would make it that much easier to create a willing labor pool. Otherwise, you will need to overpay average people to agree to work in space.

What exactly is illegal? The prisoners will sign a waiver in exchange for potential freedom later on ala Australis/United States colonization.

You can't indenture your self like that in the US.  You don't see the US setting up colonization camps in Antarctica or Alaska or Detroit do you?  Why do you think there is a need for massive amounts of human labor in space anyway?  Why not simply use robots?

You and Tamas seem to think that space colonization would be like colonization during the age of sail.  It's not.  Everyplace that isn't Earth is extremely deadly.  A small mistake on Mars, or the Moon could kill you.  You can't just land there and then use local materials to build a home.  You have to bring everything you need with you.  You might be able to extract some resources locally in the future, but all the infrastructure and factories to make use of it will have to brought from elsewhere.

[Josquius]

Penal colonies in space are a non-starter. As said the costs of housing the prisoners in space are far greater than the costs of housing them in a dull little earth based prison.
Plus of course human rights and the like. Prisoners these days often get posted to prisons near their families if thats what they want.

Given the people who spend millions just to go to orbit for a few minutes it seems likely there will be enough people willing to work in space. Companies could probally get away with paying well below the going rate due to offering the trip into space as part of the job (not that they would do that).
And how many prisoners are there who will have the required skills? Not too many mining engineers, robotics experts, etc... in prison.

As to Tim's asteroid mining by the end of the decade- no way in hell. At the most by the end of the decade you could maybe see a sample return mission. But even that is being very enthusiastic. The start of asteroid mining will be solidly something for the second half of the century.

[Neil]

I think we can safely assume that a country that has colonies in space has backed away somewhat from our overweening obsession with human rights.

[Tonitrus]

So basically, if anyone is successful at, it's going to be China.

[Strix]

A single Saturn V launch cost the equivalent of over 2 billion dollars, and you can't pack 2,000 prisoners onto a rocket.

I somehow highly doubt that any expedition setting out to colonize other parts of the planet will start from the ground on Earth. I have a feeling they will leave from a station in orbit.

And give the Chinese a chance, I am sure they will figure a way to pack 2000 prisoners in/on a rocket.

The reality is that China will be the country colonizing the solar system. Hopefully we can piggyback on their ships in some way.

[The Brain]

What will Venusian-Chinese food taste like?

[CountDeMoney]

So basically, if anyone is successful at, it's going to be China.

Yes, as long as they continue to not have a United States House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies.

[Strix]

You can't indenture your self like that in the US.  You don't see the US setting up colonization camps in Antarctica or Alaska or Detroit do you?  Why do you think there is a need for massive amounts of human labor in space anyway?  Why not simply use robots?

You and Tamas seem to think that space colonization would be like colonization during the age of sail.  It's not.  Everyplace that isn't Earth is extremely deadly.  A small mistake on Mars, or the Moon could kill you.  You can't just land there and then use local materials to build a home.  You have to bring everything you need with you.  You might be able to extract some resources locally in the future, but all the infrastructure and factories to make use of it will have to brought from elsewhere.

Yes, you can indenture yourself like that in the US. It happens all the time. What do you think parole is? Internships? Apprenticeships? If both parties agree to the terms there isn't an issue (for most things).

I would also suggest watching the science channels a bit more. The current idea is to launch (unmanned) the tools and equipment needed to build things to the planet first (for example Mars) and than use local resources to build what is needed. So, they are planning to do exactly what you say they can't.

[Razgovory]

   Oh dear.  And you work in criminal justice system right?

[Neil]

A single Saturn V launch cost the equivalent of over 2 billion dollars, and you can't pack 2,000 prisoners onto a rocket.

I somehow highly doubt that any expedition setting out to colonize other parts of the planet will start from the ground on Earth. I have a feeling they will leave from a station in orbit.

And give the Chinese a chance, I am sure they will figure a way to pack 2000 prisoners in/on a rocket.

The reality is that China will be the country colonizing the solar system. Hopefully we can piggyback on their ships in some way.

You still have to lift the prisoners to orbit, so yeah, the expedition starts from the ground.

It's hard to say whether the Chinese will be able to do it.  They don't seem to have the same burning drive to push forward that the Western countries did back before we became failed peoples.