NFL Week 16 - Yes, it's week 16 already

[Neil]

I wonder if he'll tweet a picture of him shit-talking Goodell with 'U MAD BRO?' captioned in? 

[derspiess]

Looks like LeBeau doesn't plan to retire after all.  Goddamnit.

[Syt]

Looks like LeBeau doesn't plan to retire after all.  Goddamnit.

I guess he'll quit when they take him off Heinz Fied in a hearse.

[derspiess]

Looks like LeBeau doesn't plan to retire after all.  Goddamnit.

I guess he'll quit when they take him off Heinz Fied in a hearse.

This is about as bad as it was waiting for Bettis to retire.

[The Minsky Moment]

Offensive line is sometimes a weird position at the Pro Bowl.  The lack of stats mess with the fan vote.  A lot of times, you see well-known players from large-market teams.

The presence of stats doesn't really help; hence Arian Foster over CJ Spiller.

[The Minsky Moment]

They need that New York ratings, man.

You seriously under-rated the Giants' capacity to screw up a game beyond any official's ability to clean up.
Posted 5 days later because too embarassed to check-in during real time.

[Neil]

Offensive line is sometimes a weird position at the Pro Bowl.  The lack of stats mess with the fan vote.  A lot of times, you see well-known players from large-market teams.

The presence of stats doesn't really help; hence Arian Foster over CJ Spiller.

Name value is worth a lot at every position, but even more at the line.

[MadBurgerMaker]

The presence of stats doesn't really help; hence Arian Foster over CJ Spiller.

Did you mean to type something other than Arian Foster there?

[The Minsky Moment]

The presence of stats doesn't really help; hence Arian Foster over CJ Spiller.

Did you mean to type something other than Arian Foster there?

Hmm let's see.
I was thinking of the guy who has stuggled to get to 4 yds a carry despite running behind a monster line and despite the presence of a strong passing attack.  The guy who has half the receiving yards as Spiller despite being targeted more times.   The guy who in the last 4 weeks had three games under 50 yards, two of which his team lost.

Hey, yeah, it is Arian Foster.

[The Minsky Moment]

And just to show no bias here, Victor Cruz is a pretty silly selection.  I love the guy but he has piled up receptions by default due to lack of other options, injuries, etc. 

[MadBurgerMaker]

Hmm let's see.
I was thinking of the guy who has stuggled to get to 4 yds a carry despite running behind a monster line and despite the presence of a strong passing attack.  The guy who has half the receiving yards as Spiller despite being targeted more times.   The guy who in the last 4 weeks had three games under 50 yards, two of which his team lost.

Hey, yeah, it is Arian Foster.

Wait.  So you're basing a pro bowl appearance on the stats from two bad games, plus one he left with an irregular heartbeat?  Then you're discounting the fact that the guy has over 1300 yards rushing (2nd in the AFC) and 14TDs (1st in the AFC), and is one of the primary weapons (22+ carries per game, 335 total, also 1st in the AFC) of a 12-3 football team because of something about stats?  Sorry guy, Foster has had a legit Pro Bowl season.

E: Monster line?  You don't know much about the Texans, do you?  The left side, sure, but they don't only run left. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Wait.  So you're basing a pro bowl appearance on the stats from two bad games, plus one he left with an irregular heartbeat?  Then you're discounting the fact that the guy has over 1300 yards rushing (2nd in the AFC) and 14TDs (1st in the AFC), and is one of the primary weapons (22+ carries per game, 335 total, also 1st in the AFC) of a 12-3 football team because of something about stats?  Sorry guy, Foster has had a legit Pro Bowl season.

I am basing on the fact that Spiller has had a better season.
For one thing, Spiller has more total yards than Foster despite far fewer touches.  For Spiller to get to the same results as Foster, he would have to have another 150-160 touches for a total of negative 40 yards.  It's really not close at all.

Carrying the ball a lot is not a positive in and of itself; the results of those carries matter.  Yeah Houston is 12-3, and in big part because they have a good line and a first rate QB.  So how many backs running in that setting could take some of those carries and eke out 4 yards per rush?  My guess is plenty of guys that wouldn't attract Pro Bowl consideration.  As for TDs, that is a function of the overall quality of the offense, the number of opportunities to run close to goal line, and the proclivities of the offensive coordinator. 

Foster has had a very good year, but it isn't as good as his last couple of years, and its isn't as good as others in the AFC who were passed over.

[Neil]

And just to show no bias here, Victor Cruz is a pretty silly selection.  I love the guy but he has piled up receptions by default due to lack of other options, injuries, etc.

I was just mentioning that to my wife the other night, and that Roddy White should probably have got that spot.  Especially since he'll need something to console him when the Falcons choke out in the divisional round again.

[MadBurgerMaker]

I am basing on the fact that Spiller has had a better season.
For one thing, Spiller has more total yards than Foster despite far fewer touches.  For Spiller to get to the same results as Foster, he would have to have another 150-160 touches for a total of negative 40 yards.  It's really not close at all.

Seems like maybe he should have been given the ball more, so we could actually see how he does instead of just projecting.  Until then, he's sitting at 1100 yards and 6TDs, and we know for a fact what Foster can do over those carries.  Sorry.

Carrying the ball a lot is not a positive in and of itself; the results of those carries matter.  Yeah Houston is 12-3, and in big part because they have a good line and a first rate QB.  So how many backs running in that setting could take some of those carries and eke out 4 yards per rush?  My guess is plenty of guys that wouldn't attract Pro Bowl consideration.  As for TDs, that is a function of the overall quality of the offense, the number of opportunities to run close to goal line, and the proclivities of the offensive coordinator. 

Carrying the ball a lot means he's the starting running back for the Houston Texans, because that's what they do.  The results of those carries is 14 TDs and 1300+ yards, along with 12 wins.  Nearly everything the Texans do is based off of the run, which this year, means Arian Foster. 

You seriously seem to be basing your whole thing around three games and ypc (and pretending that 4ypc is bad somehow).  I mean, come on, there's an RB for the Texans has like a 5.9 y/c (63 attempts).  If you just project that out like you did with Spiller, that's almost 2,000 yards.  You think Justin Forsett is a 2,000 yard back?  It just doesn't work like that.

Foster has had a very good year, but it isn't as good as his last couple of years, and its isn't as good as others in the AFC who were passed over.

Yeah, I mean, being at or near the top of the AFC in nearly every rushing category isn't as good as guys who.....aren't?   It's all about 4.0 ypc and three games?  This is what should cause him to not be in the Pro Bowl?

[The Minsky Moment]

Seems like maybe he should have been given the ball more, so we could actually see how he does instead of just projecting.  Until then, he's sitting at 1100 yards and 6TDs, and we know for a fact what Foster can do over those carries.  Sorry.

I think you are missing a very key point here:
Spiller has MORE yards than Foster.  Receiving yards count.  They move the team down the field the same way.
So there is no question of "projection" here - Spiller did more to help his team win than Foster did in terms of simple ground gained.
The fact that he did so with far less touches is off course also relevant becuase it means he didn't kill as many drives in the process of gaining those raw yards.
Again - the difference between Foster and Spiller is that Foster had 150+ additional touches for -40 yards.  That is not a projection, it is a quantiative fact.  Those additional touches by Foster did not contribute to his team's success; they hurt it.

Carrying the ball a lot means he's the starting running back for the Houston Texans, because that's what they do.  The results of those carries is 14 TDs and 1300+ yards, along with 12 wins.  Nearly everything the Texans do is based off of the run, which this year, means Arian Foster. 

That doesn't make a lot of sense.
The average NFL play gains 5.4 yards and the average run from scrimmage gains 4.3
So a team that runs the ball 335 times should expect (if league average in all respects) to gain 1440 yards.  So why is it some extraodinary accomplishment to gain 1328 instead?  It isn't.  The best that you can really say about it is that the Texans have spent a lot of time with a lead, which has inflated RB carries and arguably supressed YPC accordingly.

When I look at the Texans, I see a team that -- like most NFL teams these days -- passes more than it runs, and gets good results. You can just as easily say that everything Texas does is based off the pass, and that Foster's output benefits from being able to play off the passing threat.  On the flip side Arian Foster's mere presence may help the passing game in some unverifiable degree but another factor is a top notch QB, plus Andre Johnson, plus a line that is doing a damn good job of protecting the QB.  Foster's own receiving which has been terrific in past year has not been a real contribution this year.