NFL Week 16 - Yes, it's week 16 already

[MadBurgerMaker]

I think you are missing a very key point here:
Spiller has MORE yards than Foster.  Receiving yards count.  They move the team down the field the same way.
So there is no question of "projection" here - Spiller did more to help his team win than Foster did in terms of simple ground gained.
The fact that he did so with far less touches is off course also relevant becuase it means he didn't kill as many drives in the process of gaining those raw yards.
Again - the difference between Foster and Spiller is that Foster had 150+ additional touches for -40 yards.  That is not a projection, it is a quantiative fact.  Those additional touches by Foster did not contribute to his team's success; they hurt it.

You're kidding, right?  You seriously think Foster is hurting the Texans because he is running a lot?  I mean, in the sense that he is probably shortening his career and increasing his risk of injury, you're right, but you're out of your damn mind otherwise.

That doesn't make a lot of sense.
The average NFL play gains 5.4 yards and the average run from scrimmage gains 4.3
So a team that runs the ball 335 times should expect (if league average in all respects) to gain 1440 yards.  So why is it some extraodinary accomplishment to gain 1328 instead?  It isn't.  The best that you can really say about it is that the Texans have spent a lot of time with a lead, which has inflated RB carries and arguably supressed YPC accordingly.

Anyway, yeah, the Texans have been running the ball with the lead.  Foster has managed 1300+ yards despite running with the lead and burning clock and defenses waiting for him.  Funny thing: The Texans lead the league in time of possession.  What do you make of that?

When I look at the Texans, I see a team that -- like most NFL teams these days -- passes more than it runs, and gets good results. You can just as easily say that everything Texas does is based off the pass, and that Foster's output benefits from being able to play off the passing threat.  On the flip side Arian Foster's mere presence may help the passing game in some unverifiable degree but another factor is a top notch QB, plus Andre Johnson, plus a line that is doing a damn good job of protecting the QB.  Foster's own receiving which has been terrific in past year has not been a real contribution this year.

You don't know what you're talking about.  Stop.  The Texans are 2nd in the league in rushing attempts with 488. They have 518 pass attempts (tied for 17th).   The Seahawks are first with 506 attempts, and they run the option, for fucks sake. Houston runs the ball 32-33 times a game and base everything off of that.  They pass 33-34 times a game, and throw more PA passes than anyone in the league by a lot, or it was by a lot last time I saw the stat.  If you think that's some sort of pass happy team, there's something wrong with you.

[CountDeMoney]

Minsky's butthurt that his G men are folding their season like the Jets' pocket.

[katmai]

Yet he's not wrong to say that Spiller is having better season than Foster.

[CountDeMoney]

I am not contesting that.

[Admiral Yi]

I think Burger makes a reasonable point about run out the clock yards being harder than regular yards.

[MadBurgerMaker]

Well hell, the only time they start all out passing is when they absolutely have to.  If it's even kind of close and there's enough time, you can count on running plays.  It's been like this ever since Kubiak arrived in Houston, and definitely before Foster.  It's not a coincidence that they suddenly started gettin much better when Foster was running.  Nothing against Slaton and those other guys or anything.

E:  He's certainly not wrong about running with the lead, especially early in the season.  They'd go super run heavy in the second half if they had a two or more score lead.  It was almost irritating at times, but hey....they chewed clock and won games.

[Neil]

I think Burger makes a reasonable point about run out the clock yards being harder than regular yards.

Without a doubt.  On the other hand, I definitely buy JR's argument that Spiller's utility catching the ball is an asset.  I think that it's a legitimate argument as to which one is having the better season this year, but this is the Pro Bowl.  Foster wins because his team wins, he's more of a star, the Texans fans are more motivated right now than the Bills fans and because the stats that people will use to decide are rushing yards and rushing TDs.

[The Minsky Moment]

You're kidding, right?  You seriously think Foster is hurting the Texans because he is running a lot?

I think - compared to Spiller - not only do I think Foster's additional carries were not beneficial, I don't think any reasonable argument can be made to the contrary,

Anyway, yeah, the Texans have been running the ball with the lead.  Foster has managed 1300+ yards despite running with the lead and burning clock and defenses waiting for him.  Funny thing: The Texans lead the league in time of possession.  What do you make of that?

Exactly what I stated earlier - that could be a factor suppressing Foster's YPC.
But there are a couple of problems.  First, Foster's weakest performances in terms of YPC (and generally) came in the Texans three losses - when presumably they were not burning clock. 
Second, it kind of undermines the argument for Foster to point out that he gained a significant chunk of his yardage in blow-outs.
In any case I don't think it does much re the argument against Spiller.

You don't know what you're talking about.  Stop.  The Texans are 2nd in the league in rushing attempts with 488. They have 518 pass attempts (tied for 17th).   The Seahawks are first with 506 attempts, and they run the option, for fucks sake. Houston runs the ball 32-33 times a game and base everything off of that.  They pass 33-34 times a game, and throw more PA passes than anyone in the league by a lot, or it was by a lot last time I saw the stat.  If you think that's some sort of pass happy team, there's something wrong with you.

So they pass more than they run.  As I said. 
The reality in the NFL today is that offenses are based on passing and the run is supportive or complentary.  The few offenses that are exceptions prove the rule because they only do so because of personnel deficiencies on the passing side.  The Texans aren't an exception - thy run more pass plays and they get a lot more yards through the air than on the ground.  They have a lot of rushing attempts because the run more plays generally than most teams and (probably) because they ran a lot this year to chew clock.

The claim that the Texans offense is "based on" the run and that their passing game depends on the run is a claim that cannot be absolutely proven or disproven.  But it can be seriously questioned.  Schaub's best year in the NFL whether measured by absolute output or rate stats like YPA or completion % was 2009.  And in 2009, the Texans had no running attack to speak of - they didn't have a single back clear 450 yards and finished near the bottom in rushing yards and rushing YPC (3.5).  So if Schaub's passing depends on the run, he should have struggled, but the fact is that he didn't - the lack of a running game had no discernable effect on the Texans ability to pass.  The next year, Foster was a full-time starter, the Texans leaped to 7th in rushing yards and 3rd in YPC - but Schaub - in virtually the same number of passing attempts, had fewer completions and 400 fewer yards.  I don't see any basis to conclude that the Texans ability to pass is causually related to the presence of Foster or their running lots of plays on the ground.

[The Minsky Moment]

Minsky's butthurt that his G men are folding their season like the Jets' pocket.

Being not-the-Jets is really the only consolation.

[MadBurgerMaker]

and because the stats that people will use to decide are rushing yards and rushing TDs.

As they should, since he's a running back, and running the ball is what his primary job is.  I do wish they'd use Forsett (or Tate if he isn't broken for once) more though, and give Foster a break.  He's big and he doesn't take many big hits, but he's done a lot of running the last three years (940 carries in 44 games, or 21+ per).

[The Minsky Moment]

Foster wins because his team wins, he's more of a star, the Texans fans are more motivated right now than the Bills fans and because the stats that people will use to decide are rushing yards and rushing TDs.

I'd would supplement with two more things - Foster was terrific in 2010 and 2011 and thus benefits from a halo effect (that's the "star" factor).  Also my impression is that Schaub does not get all the respect his performance merits (at least outside of Houston) and thus perversely, credit for Houston's offensive performance tends to flow to the next obvious big performer.

[Neil]

and because the stats that people will use to decide are rushing yards and rushing TDs.

As they should, since he's a running back, and running the ball is what his primary job is.  I do wish they'd use Forsett (or Tate if he isn't broken for once) more though, and give Foster a break.  He's big and he doesn't take many big hits, but he's done a lot of running the last three years (940 carries in 44 games, or 21+ per).

No, his job is to help the offence win games, usually by moving down the field and scoring points, or by grinding out the clock.  Ray Rice makes the Pro Bowl not on his rushing yardage, which is pretty pedestrian for a starting back, but on the 5-700 receiving yards he has every year.

I mean, I guess his job within the Texans scheme can be to run the ball, but some RBs do other things too.

[katmai]

Yeah MBM's attitude makes Roger Craig cry.

[Neil]

Foster wins because his team wins, he's more of a star, the Texans fans are more motivated right now than the Bills fans and because the stats that people will use to decide are rushing yards and rushing TDs.

I'd would supplement with two more things - Foster was terrific in 2010 and 2011 and thus benefits from a halo effect (that's the "star" factor).  Also my impression is that Schaub does not get all the respect his performance merits (at least outside of Houston) and thus perversely, credit for Houston's offensive performance tends to flow to the next obvious big performer.

I think that the success of Yates last year hurt the respect for Schaub.  Two years ago, they were talking about him as being an emerging star QB in the years ahead.  Then the third-string guy comes in and plays well, and all of the sudden people are acting like he's just a product of the system.  Is Tom Brady a system QB because whatshisname won ten games when Pollard took Brady's knee?

[MadBurgerMaker]

I think - compared to Spiller - not only do I think Foster's additional carries were not beneficial, I don't think any reasonable argument can be made to the contrary,

Foster's "additional" carries are because he plays for the Texans, and his carries per game are just about the same as they have always been (a little higher, and it has actually come down over the last few games.  They were running the shit out of Foster and led in attempts per game up until I think the Patriots game).  The difference now is they are actually winning games, and at the beginning of the season, winning big, so Foster has been running against stacked defenses and has still been getting his.

Exactly what I stated earlier - that could be a factor suppressing Foster's YPC.
But there are a couple of problems.  First, Foster's weakest performances in terms of YPC (and generally) came in the Texans three losses - when presumably they were not burning clock. 
Second, it kind of undermines the argument for Foster to point out that he gained a significant chunk of his yardage in blow-outs.
In any case I don't think it does much re the argument against Spiller.

You realize that they're not going to run much when they're down by 30, and Foster specifically isn't going to run much when he isn't in the game, right?  Even the Texans, who, again, are behind only the read option Seahawks in rushing attempts, don't just hold on the the football and grind it out when they're down by a lot.  They do that when the games are within reach or they're winning and they need to burn clock. 

So they pass more than they run.  As I said. 
The reality in the NFL today is that offenses are based on passing and the run is supportive or complentary.  The few offenses that are exceptions prove the rule because they only do so because of personnel deficiencies on the passing side.  The Texans aren't an exception - thy run more pass plays and they get a lot more yards through the air than on the ground.  They have a lot of rushing attempts because the run more plays generally than most teams and (probably) because they ran a lot this year to chew clock.

Yeah, the Texans base everything on the run.  They control the clock, run the ball, and run a shitload of PA off of that.  That is seriously what they do, and the guy they use to run the ball, which all that revolves around, tends to be Arian Foster. 

The claim that the Texans offense is "based on" the run and that their passing game depends on the run is a claim that cannot be absolutely proven or disproven.  But it can be seriously questioned.  Schaub's best year in the NFL whether measured by absolute output or rate stats like YPA or completion % was 2009.  And in 2009, the Texans had no running attack to speak of - they didn't have a single back clear 450 yards and finished near the bottom in rushing yards and rushing YPC (3.5).  So if Schaub's passing depends on the run, he should have struggled, but the fact is that he didn't - the lack of a running game had no discernable effect on the Texans ability to pass.  The next year, Foster was a full-time starter, the Texans leaped to 7th in rushing yards and 3rd in YPC - but Schaub - in virtually the same number of passing attempts, had fewer completions and 400 fewer yards.  I don't see any basis to conclude that the Texans ability to pass is causually related to the presence of Foster or their running lots of plays on the ground.

It's not a claim.  It is how they work.  Even in 2009, when, as you say, they had some terrible rushing yards, they still ran the ball 27 times a game.  They did that, because the offense revolves around it, including the passing game, which, again, uses more play action than any other team in the league. 

No, his job is to help the offence win games, usually by moving down the field and scoring points, or by grinding out the clock.  Ray Rice makes the Pro Bowl not on his rushing yardage, which is pretty pedestrian for a starting back, but on the 5-700 receiving yards he has every year.

I mean, I guess his job within the Texans scheme can be to run the ball, but some RBs do other things too.

Yes, running the football is the running back's primary job in the Texans scheme, and it should be the first thing voters look at for a running back.  Since you bring him up, I actually think it should be more of a tossup between Rice and Spiller than Foster (or Charles) and Spiller.