Presidential Election or Chinese C.P.Meeting, Which Will Prove More Significant?

[CountDeMoney]

I don't think there's a myth of political reform CdM.

I wasn't referring to the CCP political machine itself, but the increasing relaxation at the street level we've seen in recent years, particularly the wired communications world--which the government now picks and chooses who to slam shut, and when, as opposed to snuffing it all.  There, we've seen the illusion of reform.

It sorta reminds me of the late 1980s, how the party allowed a certain level of dissidence to perpetuate for a while, giving the illusion of possibility, only to snap back the rubber band with a viciousness when the party saw it go too far.  Now, it's not as extreme as it was then, and it's happening on a much longer timeline and along a much broader horizon, but I see parallels.

[Sheilbh]

But even there is there a perceived relaxation?  I mean look at Ai Weiwei and the like.  The extent to which there's been a relaxation seems almost to enable the party to take the pulse of the country - a role the Communist Party historically played in the Soviet structure.

If anything I think a larger worry of this 'relaxation' is that the tail could start wagging the dog and inadvertantly the party could be pushed into more extreme foreign policy posturing, by the nationalist web they've encouraged.

[CountDeMoney]

I would argue that Chinese expansionist nationalism never went away in the first place, it simply had no place to go;  not until 1992 and the subsequent military Great Leap Forward.  It's only been gaining vocal traction in relation to capability.

[Jacob]

CdM, I agree with your assessment of Xi's position; the economic growth is slowing and the wealth disparity increases social tension will rise especially as the those left behind by the new economy are arguably worse off - with fewer government services and fewer guarantees of earning a livelihood.

As I see it, he has two broad courses of action he can take if he can't somehow rejuvenate growth and bring benefits and hope to the bottom 200-400 million Chinese: 1) He can sit tight as pressure builds, hoping that the kettle won't boil over until later; 2) He can try gradual reforms, but that could easily backfire as well, just like it did in 1989. So yeah, as you say, he'll have a lot in his brief. And what you say about the corruption and clientilism as a way of doing business and politics is bang on as well, and is arguably a bigger problem. I think Wen Jiabao was right when he said the biggest threat to the future of the Communist Party is corruption. If Xi could somehow provide good accountable governance then a lot of the other problems would lessen a fair bit.

I don't think there's a myth of reform. There's been some reform, but I don't think there's much more than a hope that more reform is coming; I think what Sheilbh says on that is pretty true. They're signs and portents and indications that are much more gestures in factional infighting as than indicators of actual political programs; I don't think anyone is really fooled that it's more than that.

I definitely agree with you that there's been a relaxation on the wired world. My wife reads political stuff on Weibo daily, and the things people are saying these days may be wrapped in easily pierced metaphors to escape automated censors, but there's no doubt that extremely critical and cynical comments circulate freely. The people of China know what the people of China think without it being mediated by the CCP, and that  is a significant difference from, say, 10 years ago. I don't think that's as much of a relaxation as the fact that it's basically Sisyphean to try to control it and it's impractical to shut down. Instead the CCP is left cracking down on the highest profile dissenters, like Ai Wei Wei, in the hope that it makes an example. In spite of that, the Chinese are pretty blunt and irreverent in what they say about their government. They've always been like that by themselves I think, except through the worst bits of the Cultural Revolution, but now they have a bigger audience through the net.

I see the parallels to the 1980s as well, though I read both cases a little less cynically than you did. I think there was some genuine attempts at gradual reform at the time; however as is often the case in that kind of situation the people, especially the less than satisfied ones and the young, wanted things faster and deeper and that scared the elites so they cracked down. I think there's a definite risk that something like that will play out again.

On the nationalism, I think fears of "the wild beast" that Sheilbh is alluding to are a bit over stated at the moment to be honest. On one hand, your average Chinese is pretty strongly nationalist with some hot buttons especially when it comes to Japan. On the other hand, most of them are also pretty concerned about their bread and butter issues - much like Americans (or anyone else for that matter). Everything I heard about the recent demonstrations and riots against Japan suggests that they were staged and deliberately covered by the media, yet the average Chinese were not particularly moved. I kept hearing things from people there that the protesters were bussed in from out of town, that they were obvious thugs or security people in civilian outfits etc and that their excesses were an embarrassment to whatever city the riots took place in. I mean, I'm not suggesting that there aren't millions of people who agree with the rioters, but I think it's possible to overstate the size of the fire that's being played with.

On the military front, I agree that they're positioning themselves to project force in the region and that's something that will increase tension and the risk of confrontation and worse. I'm not quite sure what you're getting at when you say nationalist expansionism, so I don't have much of a comment there.

[Jacob]

And three carrier battle groups would suffice.

A measured response by languish standards.

[Jacob]

Thank you, thing is, I'm not really anti-china.  I admire their pragmatism.

Yeah, I don't think you are.

[Neil]

When you've got the bigwigs in the PLA and the PLAN sucking down Alfred Mahan like he's back in style as a basic tenet for power projection, you've got trouble in River City.

And that starts with 'T' and that rhymes with 'C' and that stands for 'China'.

Taiwan, Guam and Japan are unsinkable.  When the PRC makes their move, they'll all die.

[Camerus]

"Illusion of political reform" versus what year's political reality? 1990?

And I'd never thought I'd see the day where CDM says he feels for the (upcoming) leader of the Chinese Communist Party.   

[CountDeMoney]

"Illusion of political reform" versus what year's political reality? 1990?

It has certainly convinced Sinopologists who honestly believe change is a' comin'.

And I'd never thought I'd see the day where CDM says he feels for the (upcoming) leader of the Chinese Communist Party.   

I have a soft spot for red, what can I say.  But you guys know that already.

[citizen k]

US election fascinates Chinese; some envy voters

BEIJING (AP) — Where can a pop star score a hit by talking about the U.S. Electoral College for 33 minutes? In China, where Gao Xiaosong's straightforward explanation of the system drew more than 1 million hits in four days.
Chinese have long been fascinated with U.S. presidential elections, but interest is particularly high this year because Americans are voting at the same time Beijing is going through its own political transition. A generation of Communist Party leaders will step down next week to make way for younger colleagues after a highly secretive selection process.
For many ordinary Chinese, comparisons are irresistible.
In a political cartoon circulated online, an American voter covers his ears as the candidates verbally attack each other on TV, while a Chinese man struggles to hear anything from the party congress, taking place behind closed doors.
"Every political system has its pros and cons, but I do think it will be great if I get to participate and get to make a decision after the candidates tell me what their platforms are for the next four years," said Guo Xiaoqiao, a freelance worker in human resources.
Chinese delight in speculating whether President Barack Obama will fend off Republican challenger Mitt Romney, but they are more captivated by Americans' ability to vote for their leader. Their own leaders are distant figures whom they have no way of replacing.
"The 18th Party Congress is a meeting for the party. We ordinary people can only watch it as an audience," said Wang Xiaojian, a 21-year-old Peking University student. "The U.S. presidential election is a campaign that gets everyone involved."
As Gao, a pop singer known for his syrupy ballads, found out, many Chinese are even interested in the U.S. Electoral College, the often perplexing system in which the president is elected not by individual votes, but by the candidates' state-by-state performance.
In a video from his online talk show that was posted on the popular video-sharing site Youku.com, Gao explained that the college is an attempt to balance the rights of states with the will of the majority.
"The opinion of the state is important; so is that of the people," Gao said. He called America's founding fathers the "greatest group of people in history."
As a public performer used to censorship, Gao was careful not to draw direct comparisons to China's system or its leaders. But even explaining America's election system is somewhat at odds with Beijing's practice.
For decades, China's public knowledge of U.S. elections was limited to state propaganda, which depicts the election as a money game controlled by Wall Street. Campaign finance scandals and vote fraud dominate coverage. Even if Chinese don't wholly believe it, the repetitive line of state media has an impact on how they view U.S. politics.
"The coverage is to serve the internal propaganda needs but not explain how the U.S. election works," said Chinese media critic Zhao Chu. "You hardly see any reports that can clearly explain how the U.S. election works."
The less-censored Internet has changed the game, giving Chinese space to comment and exchange opinions. Videos of the presidential debates are available online.
Censorship on the U.S. election has mostly been in form of guidance from censors. State media have been told to play down reports on the election and keep them short and factual, according to editors at two media outlets.
Amateur translator Guo Xiaohui, who has produced Chinese captions of U.S. political programs, said he believes giving the public an unfiltered look at American politics could get them thinking more about their own government, though he added that it also reveals the negative aspects of the U.S. system.
"The two sides are very confrontational and uncompromising," he said. "It would be better off if they can soften a bit, like the Chinese do."
Others see the U.S. system as clearly superior.
"I admire the voting rights protected by the U.S. Constitution. I pay attention to the fairness and seriousness in the election procedure," said Li Youli, a retired manager in a commerce regulatory agency in Beijing who learned about U.S. elections through an English language class.
"China's political system is so backward that it should implement one thing first: to unconditionally ensure the basic political right for citizens in a republic: the voting rights," he said.
Admiration for the U.S. political system does not necessarily extend to the U.S. itself. U.S.-China relations have been buffeted by tiffs over trade, nuclear proliferation and global hotspots like Syria and Iran. Romney has promised to label China a currency manipulator if elected, a step that could lead to a trade war between the world's two largest economies.
Many Chinese resent what they see as scolding by U.S. presidents, politicians and media about China's human rights lapses and its authoritarian system.
A Pew Global Attitudes Project survey released last month found that nearly half of Chinese have a negative view of the United States. Still, the survey registered a small increase among Chinese who like American democracy, up to 52 percent, from 48 percent in 2007. More dramatic was a decrease in Chinese rejecting American democracy, down to 29 percent from 36 percent in 2007.
Xu Chunliu, a content editor for the microblogging site Tencent Weibo, said he has observed little criticism of the U.S. election system among Chinese web users.
"I don't think Chinese people are holding their own political system in such high esteem that they feel they can criticize others," said Xu.
But he added that even being able to have conversations about voting and democracy is a positive step.
"From the Taiwan election to the U.S. election, the Chinese are always thinking and debating among themselves," Xu said. "I think China is developing into a more normal country."

[CountDeMoney]

How adorable.

[Phillip V]

How do you see events following from both 'elections' ?