Different Perceptions of Reality in the US Presidential Election

[CountDeMoney]

Yeah, that's right--the people who actually pay their own bills are the freeriders who are making everything  cost more for everybody.  You just go on believing that.

If you pay cash like Ed Anger at the emergency room, then goody for you.  America thanks you.
When your appendix ruptures, make sure you have your checkbook with you prior to discharge, mmmkaythx

[merithyn]

Yeah, that's right--the people who actually pay their own bills are the freeriders who are making everything  cost more for everybody.  You just go on believing that.

Since my three-hour trip to the ER to diagnose an ulcer came out to around $7000, I'm curious to know how you're going to manage that if something really serious happens to you.

[Ed Anger]

Yeah, that's right--the people who actually pay their own bills are the freeriders who are making everything  cost more for everybody.  You just go on believing that.

If you pay cash like Ed Anger at the emergency room, then goody for you.  America thanks you.
When your appendix ruptures, make sure you have your checkbook with you prior to discharge, mmmkaythx

What the fuck. I have insurance. Like I wanted to pay the 300K plus for my broke leg in '06.

[PDH]

He meant that you OWN an emergency room or two.

[The Minsky Moment]

Professor Fair is a statistics professor at Yale.

Economics.
But th point is well taken.

[The Minsky Moment]

My take on Silver pretty much tracks Otto: partisans on both sides of the blogosphere are mis-reading/mis-understanding his analyses.

For a more serious criticism on Silver's work:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/11/04/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/

this gets into some detail about Silver's previous forecasting work for Baseball Prospectus and his problems with the latest British election.

I think some of it is overly harsh - while Silver's model may be poorly optimized for the three party race, that shouldn't affect its application to the US.  Re the the baseball stuff, conceptually the PECOTA system that Silver designed is pretty clever, because it can adjust for all sorts of factors that can impact career devleopment without formally modelling each one.  There are basic theoretical shortcomings to that kind of approach of which the "Ichiro" problem is one.   Some of the complaints Cosh raises may be more due to the fact that Baseball Prospectus is for profit and thus PECOTA was (and must be) proprietary, which therefore decreases transparency.

The broader point is that Silver is not some kind of unique wunderkind, but a clever kid with a decent background statistics who saw a market opportunity that a numbers-phobic media had left wide open. 

[Ed Anger]

He meant that you OWN an emergency room or two.

In Theme Hopital I do.

[PDH]

In Theme Hopital I do.

I know how the nurses are dressed....

[Tonitrus]

In Theme Hopital I do.

I know how the nurses are not dressed....

Fixed.

[Ed Anger]

Man,the nurses in '06 were great. The flirty Kentucky girl and the occupational therapist  especially.

And the 2 that put the catheter in when I was having trouble from all the gas they pumped into me.