Different Perceptions of Reality in the US Presidential Election

[Eddie Teach]

Obama doesn't need Florida to win.

True, but nailing up the coffin makes it harder for the zombie to escape.

[Count]

Aw who am I kidding I think it'll look like this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgAs

I'll bet you a trillion internet quatloos that Romney wins Virginia.

Romney's a slight underdog in Virginia and a slight favorite in Florida.

[CountDeMoney]

Otherwise I think this is a fairly good look at the consensus: Obama's favored, Dems likely to retain the Senate, Republicans very likely to retain the House.

The sheer amount of money spent for this election on all levels, from the White House to Congress, from the campaigns to the Super PACs...all for a status quo election.

[CountDeMoney]

I really hope Romney's Jeep bullshit totally collapses him in Ohio. 

[Count]

Otherwise I think this is a fairly good look at the consensus: Obama's favored, Dems likely to retain the Senate, Republicans very likely to retain the House.

The sheer amount of money spent for this election on all levels, from the White House to Congress, from the campaigns to the Super PACs...all for a status quo election.

there's a lot of money being spent on state attorney general races and judicial elections, too.

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/2012_judicial_campaign_spending_exceeds_13_million_surpasses_2010_spending/

[sbr]

I really hope Romney's Jeep bullshit totally collapses him in Ohio.

What did he do?

[Count]

Latest Nate Silver post compares pre-election state polls to the results:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/

[garbon]

I have a question after looking at Silver's site. So per him Romney's chances of winning now (~15% chance) show that Romney is near his all time low in chance to win on Silver's tracker?

[Count]

I have a question after looking at Silver's site. So per him Romney's chances of winning now (~15% chance) show that Romney is near his all time low in chance to win on Silver's tracker?

Yeah, but that's more a function of their being so little time before the election. If the election was held the day before the first debate, Obama's chances would be much higher.

edit: you'll see that if you look at the "now-cast" which tells you what the model thinks would happen if the election happened right now. Before the first debate the now-cast was at almost 100%; now it's only slightly higher than the actual prediction.

[Sheilbh]

I have a question after looking at Silver's site. So per him Romney's chances of winning now (~15% chance) show that Romney is near his all time low in chance to win on Silver's tracker?

I think it's what Count says, the percentage shifts as the polls get closer to election day because there's more chance of them tallying to actual votes.  So the forecast goes from one that takes into account the potential of intervening events into a more concrete prediction that Obama/Romney will win these states giving a certain result.

[Ed Anger]

I really hope Romney's Jeep bullshit totally collapses him in Ohio.

That stuff may really resonate in the area where I'm in, where the auto plants got gutted. I don't know how the ex GM and Delphi workers are gonna take it.

[garbon]

Gotcha, thanks.

[CountDeMoney]

I really hope Romney's Jeep bullshit totally collapses him in Ohio.

That stuff may really resonate in the area where I'm in, where the auto plants got gutted. I don't know how the ex GM and Delphi workers are gonna take it.

But it's a fucking lie.  The worst he's dropped yet, and there have been some real wing dingers.  And when Chrysler, GM and every paper from Detroit to Cleveland call you on your bullshit, you know you've piled it up. 

http://youtu.be/Y-iYRtfOazE

[garbon]

I really hope Romney's Jeep bullshit totally collapses him in Ohio.

That stuff may really resonate in the area where I'm in, where the auto plants got gutted. I don't know how the ex GM and Delphi workers are gonna take it.

But it's a fucking lie.  The worst he's dropped yet, and there have been some real wing dingers.  And when Chrysler, GM and every paper from Detroit to Cleveland call you on your bullshit, you know you've piled it up. 

http://youtu.be/Y-iYRtfOazE

But not an issue if it resonates. Isn't that how we got Mr. Hope and Change 2008?

[CountDeMoney]

But not an issue if it resonates. Isn't that how we got Mr. Hope and Change 2008?

Explain, or I'll just take it you're trying to start bullshit.