Presidential Election or Chinese C.P.Meeting, Which Will Prove More Significant?

Started by mongers, October 29, 2012, 04:43:29 PM

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Which of these two 'elections' will prove to be the most important historically ?

US Presidential / General Election 2012.
10 (34.5%)
Special 10 yearly Chinese C.P. Meeting
12 (41.4%)
About the same significant.
4 (13.8%)
Neither is of any importance (Jaron option)
3 (10.3%)
Don't know
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 29

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Ed Anger

#45
October 31, 2012, 06:06:53 PM
This Bo guy, he the one from Tecmo Bowl?
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Razgovory

#46
October 31, 2012, 06:08:17 PM
I don't think so, Jake is just being a dick as far as I can tell.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Jacob

#47
October 31, 2012, 06:46:01 PM Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 06:49:18 PM by Jacob
Alright, just in case you're not deliberately obtuse here's the breakdown, in very broad strokes:

The struggle for the leadership in China takes place before the CCP congress. What happens there is a result of all the politicking that goes on before the actual meeting.

These last 6-12 months (or longer) has seen significant turmoil within in the CCP as competing factions, with competing visions for China (and competing cliques of clients as well).

On one hand we have a group who have things like persecuting the Falun Gong up to and including widespread torture and organ harvesting and the crackdown on Tiananmen Square in '89 as their legacy and who believe that the Cultural Revolution is a useful model and Mao worship is good and useful; on the other hand, we have a faction who was sympathetic to the student protestors in '89, who advocate gradual reform including experiments in local democracy and a move away from state control in business, and who thinks the Cultural Revolution was a terrible mistake.

That's not to say that neither faction is considering giving up power, or that they don't have corrupt members; but there is nonetheless a stark contrast between the two and the direction they'll take the country; and how they'll interact with the world as exemplified by one faction whipping up and publicizing anti-Japanese sentiment over border disputes.

... nor is it likely accurate that there are just two factions, but these are the broad differences that we can see right now.

So this thing is going on right now, and has been for a while. The fall of Bo Xilai (a significant member of the neo-Maoist faction) - and a number of other events - are indications of how the power struggle is going. The rest of us will have an idea how it turns once the party congress is done, but given the recent 2.7B story in the papers it seems like things aren't settled quite yet.

So yeah, Bo Xilai is not in the running anymore. That's significant because he was a terrible douche and corrupt motherfucker even by Chinese CCP standards, because it's one of the biggest shakeups in the CCP in years, and because it's the result of the battles to determine China's future.

Razgovory

#49
November 01, 2012, 01:55:34 AM
I was under the impression that the ones who ordered Tienanmen square were also those who pushed for economic reforms and were not interested in another cultural revolution.  You know, like Deng and his successors.  The Bo scandal seems to me that the party isn't interested in another Maoist, and power will go to someone like Hu Jintao, ie another technocrat.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

derspiess

#50
November 01, 2012, 11:33:33 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 31, 2012, 06:06:53 PM
This Bo guy, he the one from Tecmo Bowl?

LOL BO KNOWS REPRESSION
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Jacob

#51
November 01, 2012, 12:59:56 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 01, 2012, 01:55:34 AM
I was under the impression that the ones who ordered Tienanmen square were also those who pushed for economic reforms and were not interested in another cultural revolution.  You know, like Deng and his successors.  The Bo scandal seems to me that the party isn't interested in another Maoist, and power will go to someone like Hu Jintao, ie another technocrat.

There are different factions and cliques within the CCP, with often conflicting goals. If you chose to conflate them all then of course you're not going to be able to see the difference between them.

There are significant differences in goals and aims between, say, Bo Xilai and Wen Jiabao for example; or between Zhao Ziyang and Zhou Yongkang. Zhao Ziyang, for example, was one of the key architects of economic reforms and he was dismissed and confined to house arrest for his support of the students at Tiananmen; Zhou Yongkang on the other hand is (or at least was) responsible for public security and is widely seen as favouring harsher crackdowns on dissent (except, of course, staged nationalist protests used to display his own influence).

Whether the party is or isn't "interested in another Maoist"* depends on the outcome of the internal power struggle that is being played out leading up to the upcoming congress and transfer of leadership. Bo's ouster and the fallout from that points at the outcome you're saying, but it was far from a given and it's not quite settled yet.

*not that Bo Xilai was necessarily Maoist in any sense other than as a populist aesthetic (though I suppose you could argue that is all there really is to Maoism).

Razgovory

#52
November 01, 2012, 04:33:36 PM
Are you sure I'm the one who's conflating them, and you aren't seeing differences that aren't there?  It was Deng who had the economy liberalized and reformed the succession processes, and at the same time it was ultimately Deng who ordered the crackdown at Tienanmen Square.  There are differences between the cliques, but it's a matter of shades of grey, not black and white.  I strongly suspect that new leaders will follow the same policies that have profited the old leaders so well for the last 20 years, at least until some outside influence shakes it up.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Jacob

#53
November 01, 2012, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 01, 2012, 04:33:36 PM
Are you sure I'm the one who's conflating them, and you aren't seeing differences that aren't there?

Yes.

QuoteIt was Deng who had the economy liberalized and reformed the succession processes, and at the same time it was ultimately Deng who ordered the crackdown at Tienanmen Square.

Deng isn't around anymore.

Razgovory

#54
November 01, 2012, 04:53:10 PM
Oh, well since you are sure you are right and I'm wrong, then I reckon there's no point in arguing with you.  I mean, who is Raz to argue with an evolved ball of light who is not only certain about the inner politics of an opaque organization such as politburo, but also my own mind.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

CountDeMoney

#56
November 01, 2012, 05:43:12 PM
I like the new I-found-a-new-hobby-as-a-China-watcher-so-it-makes-me-smarter-than-you-even-though-we-all-read-the-same-open-source-shit-on-them Jacob.   :)

Barrister

#57
November 01, 2012, 05:52:58 PM
But don't forget Jacob gets all the inside news from his in-laws in Sichuan, which makes him an expert in Chinese politics.

It's the same factor that has suddenly made my brother an expert on Brazilian politics. :rolleyes:
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Ed Anger

#58
November 01, 2012, 05:54:07 PM
Maybe he can tell us which dog food doesn't have lead in it.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive
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