Politico: 4 Possible freak election outcomes

[Phillip V]

I'm going to predict that there is no surprise outcome and that Obama is re-elected with a comfortable (though hardly huge) margin of victory in both popular votes and electoral college votes.

From your lips to the gods of elections' ears. 

I hope not. I'm tired of our smug do-nothing President.

I don't trust Romney's plan. I've read it over and over again on his website, but it still doesn't make any sense, financially.

On top of that, I don't want Obamacare repealed. Period. Having gone two years without insurance, having made bad choices for my health because I just couldn't afford to do what I knew needed to be done, I just don't want to go back there. In fact, I don't think that Obamacare goes far enough, so the idea of Romney taking away what few gains toward a better healthcare program that we've made just kind of makes me a bit irritated.

Criticize Romney about his math, but then where is the math on how Obamacare will be repealed? It is highly likely there will be a Democratic Senate. And many parts of the legislation are now entrenched.

[garbon]

On top of that, I don't want Obamacare repealed. Period. Having gone two years without insurance, having made bad choices for my health because I just couldn't afford to do what I knew needed to be done, I just don't want to go back there. In fact, I don't think that Obamacare goes far enough, so the idea of Romney taking away what few gains toward a better healthcare program that we've made just kind of makes me a bit irritated.

On the flipside, I was reading an article about how more and more companies are only offering plans with high deductibles (partly economy and partly mandate). So for those whole already had insurance, they are getting squeezed tighter and those who did are still getting fucked.

[garbon]

Well not sure that a person should be happy that people are either secretly racist and/or feel that they have to say they'd vote for a black guy so as not to appear racist.

And here we go

Did I say I hoped people are secretly racist?  All I'm saying is it would be nice if turns out the polling numbers for Obama were inflated and Romney ends up winning.

One of those two things has to be true for the effect to occur.

[derspiess]

I'm going to predict that there is no surprise outcome and that Obama is re-elected with a comfortable (though hardly huge) margin of victory in both popular votes and electoral college votes.

So same thing as in 2008, then?  Do you really think enthusiasm for Obama is the same as it was 4 years ago?

Clearly not.

But he's also not an unknown any more.  He's the incumbent.  He doesn't need a wave of "Hope and Change" to get him elected.

Incumbency isn't always a bonus, particularly when you have a stagnant economy.  Going by past history Obama should be getting thumped in the polls.

Now I think he may well win the election based upon undecideds who check the box next to his name because all things being equal in their minds, they don't necessarily want to 'change captains in the middle of the storm'.  But I don't think it would be by a comfortable margin.

[derspiess]

One of those two things has to be true for the effect to occur.

Well I think it's pretty well established that whites are often cowards when it comes to race 'issues' (whether real or imagined).

[garbon]

One of those two things has to be true for the effect to occur.

Well I think it's pretty well established that whites are often cowards when it comes to race 'issues' (whether real or imagined).

I'm not sure why you objected to what I said. Neither of those are heart warming.

[derspiess]

I'm not sure why you objected to what I said. Neither of those are heart warming.

Because I accept one of them (THE LATTER) to fit into the reality we live in.  I don't have to like that reality for hoping it may mean that Romney wins.

You're reading way too much into what I said.

[Valmy]

As I mentioned in the other thread, it didn't happen in 2008.  So that be why nobody is talking about it now. 

I do not get the paranoia over this.  This effect happened thirty years ago in the 80s. 

[alfred russel]

As I mentioned in the other thread, it didn't happen in 2008.  So that be why nobody is talking about it now. 

I do not get the paranoia over this.  This effect happened thirty years ago in the 80s.

In a previous election I read a rather convincing analysis that the effect may not have happened at all.

[merithyn]

On the flipside, I was reading an article about how more and more companies are only offering plans with high deductibles (partly economy and partly mandate). So for those whole already had insurance, they are getting squeezed tighter and those who did are still getting fucked.

That trend was in place well before 2010. The economy downturn forced employers to either cut employees or cut insurance costs. Those who could cut employees did that; those who couldn't cut insurance. Interestingly, during that time, individual policies have become far more affordable for more people. In fact, it would have been cheaper for me to have a family individual policy than to take the insurance the middle school offered, and I worked there four years ago.

As I said, I don't think Obamacare went far enough, and the compromise ends up thumping the middle class... again.

[garbon]

I'm not sure why you objected to what I said. Neither of those are heart warming.

Because I accept one of them (THE LATTER) to fit into the reality we live in.  I don't have to like that reality for hoping it may mean that Romney wins.

You're reading way too much into what I said.

Actually I'm just pointing out that what you want comes with some pretty shitty conclusions.

[derspiess]

Actually I'm just pointing out that what you want comes with some pretty shitty conclusions.

And like I said, I think one of them may already be our reality.

[garbon]

Actually I'm just pointing out that what you want comes with some pretty shitty conclusions.

And like I said, I think one of them may already be our reality.

So? Pretty clear that my statement acknowledges that one or the other must be true for Brady effect - which unless you thought I was suggesting that this would change in the next 9 days, assumes current state.  Also, even if that is the current state, I'd say I'm still right in pointing out that such is not a good thing.

[mongers]

They missed out the major possible freak outcome, that the President and congress elected manages to work together to get significant and workable legislation and policies enacted for the long term benefit of the American people. 




edit:
Sorry, on reflection that's just a ludicrously unlikely thing to happen. 

[Razgovory]

I'm not sure why you objected to what I said. Neither of those are heart warming.

Because I accept one of them (THE LATTER) to fit into the reality we live in.  I don't have to like that reality for hoping it may mean that Romney wins.

You're reading way too much into what I said.

If Obama loses because of racism is that reality you like or not?