US Presidential Election 2012, your prediction.

[mongers]

5 weeks today till American finally get to vote, so about time people here staked their bet on the outcome.

I'm using the electoral college numbers as those are the only ones that count* so what is your prediction.

Maybe it would be more interesting to look at the numbers in terms of historical elections, so one can compare and contrast.

But by all means make a specific prediction like Obama to win by 20-30 electoral college majority. Which is my guess as, I think things will tighten in the run up to the vote.


For some reason I took my starting point as post WW1, and yes I know some of those elections didn't have exactly 538 electors, but the numbers are broadly similar.
And no I could be arsed work out the numbers and write say 479-485, you have to make do with a + to the number.







*certain rare exceptions, like 2008. 

[DGuller]

My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes.  I didn't vote in the poll yet, I'm waiting for my buddy in NSA to decrypt it.

[mongers]

There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. 

[Sheilbh]

At this point I think Obama with about 330-40.

[DGuller]

There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. 

Yeah, that fixed it right up.

[mongers]

There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. 

Yeah, that fixed it right up.

[Eddie Teach]

My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes. 

I predict Obama's electoral vote total will be an integer.

[DGuller]

My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes. 

I predict Obama's electoral vote total will be an integer.

Hmm, that's a pretty clever thought.  If you assume an integer vote total, the number of possible results is reduced by a factor of infinity. 

[Admiral Yi]

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.

New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.

What else is in play?  There's 8, right?

[derspiess]

Obama with 303.  Dems will narrowly hold the Senate 51-49 after the election and GOP will gain a couple seats to maintain solid control of the House.

In 2014 the GOP will win control of the Senate and maintain control of House.

[Sheilbh]

What else is in play?  There's 8, right?

Romney's campaigning in PA.  But the polls suggest it's not really in play. 

I don't think Romney's got a chance in NH and I think Obama has a (slim) chance in NC.

[Phillip V]

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.

New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.

What else is in play?  There's 8, right?

Colorado, Virginia

[mongers]

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.

New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.

What else is in play?  There's 8, right?

World peace  ?

[Admiral Yi]

Colorado, Virginia

Groovy.

Virginia to Obama, Colorado to...I don't know.

[mongers]

The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259