US Presidential Election 2012, your prediction.

Started by mongers, October 02, 2012, 03:48:37 PM

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What will be the winning margin in the 2012 US Presidential election.

531+   1936   Franklin D. Roosevelt
3 (10%)
486+   1964   Lyndon B. Johnson
0 (0%)
472+   1932   Franklin D. Roosevelt
0 (0%)
449+   1940   Franklin D. Roosevelt
0 (0%)
432+   1944   Franklin D. Roosevelt
0 (0%)
379+   1996   Bill Clinton
1 (3.3%)
370+   1992   Bill Clinton
1 (3.3%)
365+   2008   Barack Obama
3 (10%)
303+   1948   Harry S. Truman
6 (20%)
303+   1960   John F. Kennedy
6 (20%)
297+   1976   Jimmy Carter
2 (6.7%)
269 - 269      a Draw - not seen since early days of republic.
0 (0%)
271+   2000   George W. Bush
0 (0%)
286+   2004   George W. Bush
2 (6.7%)
301+   1968   Richard Nixon
2 (6.7%)
382+   1924   Calvin Coolidge
1 (3.3%)
404+   1920   Warren G. Harding
0 (0%)
426+   1988   George H. W. Bush
0 (0%)
442+   1952   Dwight D. Eisenhower
0 (0%)
444+   1928   Herbert Hoover
0 (0%)
457+   1956   Dwight D. Eisenhower
0 (0%)
489+   1980   Ronald Reagan
0 (0%)
520+   1972   Richard Nixon
0 (0%)
525+   1984   Ronald Reagan
1 (3.3%)
Other      A court decides.
0 (0%)
Other      Mayan doomsday comes early.
2 (6.7%)

Total Members Voted: 30

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Ed Anger

#15
October 02, 2012, 06:40:42 PM
I predict I won't make up my mind by November.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

derspiess

#16
October 02, 2012, 06:57:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 06:39:01 PM
The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259

You Limeys mind yer own bidness :angry:
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

katmai

#17
October 02, 2012, 06:59:59 PM
I predict someone who had parent not born in America will win.
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

Ed Anger

#18
October 02, 2012, 07:02:39 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 06:57:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 06:39:01 PM
The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259

You Limeys mind yer own bidness :angry:

I'm awaiting with baited breath the first article from a foreigner paper demanding they should get a vote in us elections and a seefor style pleading thread asking Americans to vote the way they want.

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Phillip V

#19
October 02, 2012, 07:04:59 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 02, 2012, 06:59:59 PM
I predict someone who had parent not born in America will win.
Funnily, only one of them had a polygamous father. :D

Fate

#20
October 02, 2012, 07:28:36 PM
332 Obama - 206 Romney. The map will be the same as 2008 except that NC and IN will go GOP.

Strix

#21
October 02, 2012, 07:30:17 PM
Obama wins by a Presidential Mandate!!

It's a done deal.
"I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left." - Margaret Thatcher

Phillip V

#22
October 02, 2012, 07:35:14 PM
Two big markers this week before making a prediction:

Wednesday: first presidential debate
Friday: monthly jobs/unemployment numbers

derspiess

#23
October 02, 2012, 08:34:23 PM
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance.  Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Sheilbh

#24
October 02, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 08:34:23 PM
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance.  Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
Expectation management.  All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.

Expectations matter a lot.  It's why Clinton was the comeback kid after coming second in New Hampshire, or why, say, Ed Miliband did quite well today.
Let's bomb Russia!

Razgovory

#25
October 02, 2012, 09:22:58 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 08:34:23 PM
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance.  Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
Expectation management.  All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.

Expectations matter a lot.  It's why Clinton was the comeback kid after coming second in New Hampshire, or why, say, Ed Miliband did quite well today.

Back in 2004 the Bush camp claimed that Kerry was the greatest debater since Cicero. :lol:
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

derspiess

#26
October 02, 2012, 09:33:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Expectation management.  All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.

Not all campaigns do it-- certainly not to the extent that Obama has in the past few days.  And it's like much like him to be humble.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

CountDeMoney

#27
October 02, 2012, 09:39:59 PM
My prediction?  President, CEO and Fruity Religion Bishop-in-Chief Mittens Romney by roughly 300.

Razgovory

#28
October 02, 2012, 09:40:40 PM
I don't understand the poll. :(
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

CountDeMoney

#29
October 02, 2012, 09:41:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 02, 2012, 09:40:40 PM
I don't understand the poll. :(

He confused "winning margin" with "total electoral votes".
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