The China Thread

[Sheilbh]

And of course the other interesting point is Taiwan is particularly strategic in the modern world because of its dominance of global semiconductor manufacturing.

China, Europe and the US are all making developing domestic semiconductor manufacturing a priority, which must be something Taiwan looks at with concern/alarm.

[Berkut]

What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

It is not simply a question of relative strength though.

War over Taiwan is the worst possible outcome for the US. They want to avoid it at nearly any cost. Because there is very little to be gained by such a war. Indeed, there is almost nothing to be gained. Winning such a war might be worse then just letting China have Taiwan...but maybe not.

Germany in 1914 had rivals next door to them, that could (and evenutally did) directly invade and dismember the country. The current (and long ongoing) showdown over Taiwan is nothing like that.


Finally, the cold war mentality is exactly what has been done.

[Threviel]

Yes, war is something to be avoided at almost all cost. I don't think the commies want a big war either and would probably just have to accept a US trigger force.

And then have ROC drop its claims to China and de facto declare independence so that the rest of the world can have proper diplomatic relations and all that.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

[Sheilbh]

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

I don't think 1914 analogy specifically works with Taiwan

[Berkut]

Yes, war is something to be avoided at almost all cost. I don't think the commies want a big war either and would probably just have to accept a US trigger force.

And then have ROC drop its claims to China and de facto declare independence so that the rest of the world can have proper diplomatic relations and all that.

We don't know what the commies will accept though. They have their own internal pressures, and I don't think you can really over-estimate their concern that they be taken seriously and treated as a great power.

There is a significant element in China that says that a showdown with the US is inevitable in the long run, and there will eventually be a war -so why not one over something that actually gets China something important, like control over Taiwan?

Again, there is no upside to fighting China over Taiwan for the US - the best possible outcome of that is a lot of blood and treasure lost to get the status quo!

The best possible outcome for China is securing Taiwan, and dealing a crippling blow to western prestige and a HUGE boost to China both internally and externally by beating the west in a shooting war.

Provocation, like basing actual troops on Taiwan, makes not sense for the US now, and I can't imagine a scenario where it makes sense ever - absent perhaps the US and China just becoming openly belligerent.

[Threviel]

Fair enough.

[Threviel]

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

It was not a WW1 analogy. Insert Roman Empire during the five good emperors, or Britain at about 1900 or some other historical example where a power is waning due to other powers rise.  As China grows in power the relative superiority of the US will decrease over time. If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US. Like tsarist Russia would do to Germany unless Germany does something about it.

So, if the US had wanted to put trip wire troops in Taiwan it could have done so in the 90ies and just laughed at Chinese protests, but there was no need back then.
At some point fear of China would make those trip wire troops impossible. Perhaps that point is already reached or perhaps it is decades away.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships. 

They've had surface task forces of different compositions operating of the coast of Africa for over a decade now, so at the very least they have decent experience in blue water deployments and sustainment. \

[Josquius]

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

It was not a WW1 analogy. Insert Roman Empire during the five good emperors, or Britain at about 1900 or some other historical example where a power is waning due to other powers rise.  As China grows in power the relative superiority of the US will decrease over time. If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US. Like tsarist Russia would do to Germany unless Germany does something about it.

So, if the US had wanted to put trip wire troops in Taiwan it could have done so in the 90ies and just laughed at Chinese protests, but there was no need back then.
At some point fear of China would make those trip wire troops impossible. Perhaps that point is already reached or perhaps it is decades away.

Trends obviously won't continue however. China's current path has a clear cliff-edge, already they're passed the peak for many of the advantages that got them where they are.
Could China still fin a way to succeed in the future? Yes.
But it won't be on current trends.

[grumbler]

The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships. 

They've had surface task forces of different compositions operating of the coast of Africa for over a decade now, so at the very least they have decent experience in blue water deployments and sustainment. \

Those forces are tiny, though (two destroyers or frigates, supported by a single replenishment oiler that represented about 50% of the deployable AORs in the fleet).  Australia has more experience in blue water ops over the last 20 years than the PRC.

The PRC is definitely growing in capabilities faster than any other navy, though.  Time is on their side, for the next decade or so.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US.

It depends which trend you mean.  GDP growth is still strong at around 6 percent a year (official numbers) but that is down from the 10+ percent recorded last decade.  Per capita GDP is in the 11-12K range as opposed to 50-60 for the advanced OECD nations.  Demographically, birth rates are down to 1.3 per woman - this is a population that is going to age very fast.

In 2050 China is likely to be a reasonably prosperous (ie roughly where SKorea is now in relative terms) but elderly nation.

[The Minsky Moment]

Those forces are tiny, though (two destroyers or frigates, supported by a single replenishment oiler that represented about 50% of the deployable AORs in the fleet).  Australia has more experience in blue water ops over the last 20 years than the PRC.

The PRC is definitely growing in capabilities faster than any other navy, though.  Time is on their side, for the next decade or so.

What are they keeping in Djibouti these days?

[grumbler]

What are they keeping in Djibouti these days?

Just a small support base, as far as I know.  About what Japan has, and much les than what the US and France have.  Djibouti is making bank on renting sand to foreigners.

[Jacob]

Good news for China - the central government has decreed that couples are now allowed to have three children each. Unfortunately, many young couples can't afford to have even one child.

My prediction: China will need additional measures to reverse the impending population decline.