The China Thread

[Zanza]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day.

.

That's not how it works. Spread is exponential, not linear. The original strain doubled the amount of infected hosts every two to three days. Omicron can do that at least daily.

So if 2.5% of the population is infected now, tomorrow 5% will be and the day after 10%. Eventually the virus starts running out of "fuel" and the wave ends. But China is still a few weeks from that.
And in the meantime the health system will collapse, since there are about 100 million unvaccinated Chinese (with no natural immunity either).

The 2.5% might be the sustained rate of infection considering the factors you name that brake an exponential growth. Exponential growth does not have to mean doubling every day either.

[Josquius]

So. Apparently there's been a big rush to book foreign travel in China.

In response a bunch of countries putting mandatory testing in place. One plane found half its passengers infected.

Given how much of a petri dish China is... I do think there's value in a bit of caution here. Covid 23 et al.

BBC News - Covid in China: US imposes Covid testing for visitors from China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64111492

[mongers]

So. Apparently there's been a big rush to book foreign travel in China.

In response a bunch of countries putting mandatory testing in place. One plane found half its passengers infected.

Given how much of a petri dish China is... I do think there's value in a bit of caution here. Covid 23 et al.

BBC News - Covid in China: US imposes Covid testing for visitors from China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64111492

Who goes back to square one first?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If it gets put again the repercussions for China will be more severe though, I think. Especially as it seems they're again withholding data on the virus-trains.
Frankly, it would be best if the rest of the world puts in major restrictions on travel from China. Let them stew a bit more while protecting our own people.

[mongers]

Going back to the topic of a Taiwan crisis, found this CSIS report published on Monday interesting:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
January 9, 2023

CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.
However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

Download the full report here, a longish PDF, but it's an interesting read:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ


And here's their 3 minutes summary video on youtube:
https://youtu.be/bFDMh_dyshY

[Josquius]

Drone subs are something one rarely hears about though it strikes me they're what this report is solidly pointing towards as a key requirement.

I'm curious on the US losing global position point.... Since China lost more, who won?

[Grey Fox]

Turkey probably.

[Sheilbh]

Drone subs are something one rarely hears about though it strikes me they're what this report is solidly pointing towards as a key requirement.

We're providing some minehunting automated subs to Ukraine - I think there's others western countries are providing more generally.


Edit: I think there was a video from an automated boat that attacked Russian ships in Sevastopol which was really fascinating. But it definitely feels like an increasingly important area?

[Jacob]

Random Chinese related gossip - some years ago the Xi regime put a whole bunch of money into an initiative to help China advance rapidly in microchip manufacturing. Progress has been solid, with chips being revealed showing advances and showcasing Chinese industry's ingenuity.

... except, recently, it turns out that at least two of these new technology champions (who received lots of money from the goverment) were simply taking chips from old Nokia phones and from Samsung washing machines respectively. The Nokia guy left China before this was discovered. Not sure about the Samsung fellow.

In any case, media coverage of the great microchip initiative has dropped off significantly in China since this was discovered.

[Valmy]

The courage and nerve of people when committing cons and scams is amazing. If only people had similar audacity when advancing noble causes.

[HVC]

The courage and nerve of people when committing cons and scams is amazing. If only people had similar audacity when advancing noble causes.

Being noble don't make you rich... unless your the kind of noble who had an ancestor that was a close personal friend of William the conqueror

[Zanza]

Around 900 million people in China, or 64% of the population, had contracted COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic as of Wednesday, according to a report by local researchers.

A team led by Peking University assistant professor Ma Jingjing compiled the figure using private-sector estimates on infection rates, the Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported. The estimates were based on online search data for key phrases, like "fever."

The new report also provided infection rate estimates for different provinces, including around 91% in Gansu province, around 84% in Yunnan province, and around 80% in Qinghai province.

Coronavirus cases have been surging across China since the government eased its strict zero-COVID restrictions last month. The country saw 3.73 million new infections and  21,300 deaths on Friday, British research company Airfinity estimated -- up from 2.42 million infections and 15,850 deaths on Jan. 5.

Cumulative deaths since December have topped 345,000, and are expected to reach 1.7 million by the end of April, Airfinity said.

Local governments in China continue to report rapid rises in infections. Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia, said Thursday that its infection rate stood between 74% and 81%. Henan province on Monday reported an 89% infection rate.

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has not published daily infections and deaths since Sunday, making it difficult to grasp the extent of the spread nationwide.

The World Health Organization has expressed doubts over the accuracy of data coming out of China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs hit back at these comments Thursday, with spokesperson Wang Wenbin saying Beijing hopes the WHO'S statements"reflect objectivity and impartiality."

[Valmy]

I always wondered what the point of the zero Covid policy was. Covid was well established in the world by that point. It seemed to serve no purpose at all but delay the inevitable.

The lockdowns way back in 2020 might have done something, but doing this shit in 2022? That was ridiculous.

[mongers]

I always wondered what the point of the zero Covid policy was. Covid was well established in the world by that point. It seemed to serve no purpose at all but delay the inevitable.

The lockdowns way back in 2020 might have done something, but doing this shit in 2022? That was ridiculous.

It was the emperor's command, the only necessary reason.

[Sheilbh]

It made sense and was a really impressive policy to buy time for vaccines and to support a vaccine roll-out so you can then transition out of it. It feels like it became a bit of a fetish where zero covid was the purpose in itself.

And as Mongers says it became very tightly associated with Xi.