The China Thread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm surprised the Xi regime has part backed down on the zero-covid policy.

Maybe they'll watch it rip through the population, say 'See We* were right' after all and re-institution harsh state control?


* Xi and the loyal CCP.

Yeah, that's option too. Let it rip for a bit, then uncle Xi comes back with even harsher repression.

[PJL]

I'm surprised too but not inconsistent with the CCP responding to specific gripes to alleviate / divert focus away from the more generalized criticism of the regime. Basically a divide and conquer tactic.

[Zanza]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

I think it was Zeihan who mentioned that 20 million would not be impossible. Relatively a drop, absolutely a near incomprehensible amount of people.

[Admiral Yi]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

Did everyone stop wearing masks overnight?  I'm trying to understand what change in behavior would have led to this.

[Tamas]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

Did everyone stop wearing masks overnight?  I'm trying to understand what change in behavior would have led to this.

The stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.

[Admiral Yi]

The stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.

But we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.

[Sheilbh]

But we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.

We had far higher acquired immunity and didn't lift lockdown into omicron. There may also be a density factor but that seems high - especially as China's also wound down a lot of mandatory testing.

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

Yeah. New Zealand and Australia had a very successful zero covid approach that means their fatality rate over the pandemic is far lower than countries that failed to keep it out - but even with mRNA vaccines they have had around 500 deaths per million. In a country like China that's still a lot of deaths.

And that's assuming the healthcare system holds up.

[DGuller]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

I'm skeptical that the Omicron fatality rate really is 0.5%.  I think the numbers of confirmed cases these days are less reliable than they were even at the very start of the pandemic, because now people just test themselves with home kits.  I think at this point you'll get a better estimate just by looking at Covid deaths per population, since it's safe to assume that a large portion of population has had Omicron.

[Zanza]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

I'm skeptical that the Omicron fatality rate really is 0.5%.  I think the numbers of confirmed cases these days are less reliable than they were even at the very start of the pandemic, because now people just test themselves with home kits.  I think at this point you'll get a better estimate just by looking at Covid deaths per population, since it's safe to assume that a large portion of population has had Omicron.

Fair point. But then our numbers are probably not comparable to Cjona precisely because our population had multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, which means it is likely deadlier in China than it was in the West. But we will never know as the Chinese will not provide any figures.

[Jacob]

The stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.

But we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.

I don't know about the 2.5% number specifically, but reasons that Chinese mortality numbers may be higher than in the West are:

- less efficacious vaccine, targeted at earlier variants rather than Omicron and later.
- lower rate of vaccination (especially multiples) across the population.
- years of strict covid zero lockdown policies have resulted in lower natural immunity in the population.
- the PRC need to save face and comply with central directives increases the odds of inefficient and counterproductive decision making.
- there's a real risk the Chinese health system will be overwhelmed if the preceding items play out poorly.

[Jacob]

Seeing reports that several provinces are telling health staff "come to work even if you're sick, no need to get tested."

[Sheilbh]

I don't know about the 2.5% number specifically, but reasons that Chinese mortality numbers may be higher than in the West are:

- less efficacious vaccine, targeted at earlier variants rather than Omicron and later.
- lower rate of vaccination (especially multiples) across the population.
- years of strict covid zero lockdown policies have resulted in lower natural immunity in the population.
- the PRC need to save face and comply with central directives increases the odds of inefficient and counterproductive decision making.
- there's a real risk the Chinese health system will be overwhelmed if the preceding items play out poorly.

It's also worth remembering that China never had a national lockdown. In a way I think the most likely risk is that they go through what Europe went in the first wave (with the very good news that they already have vaccines) of being forced into lockdowns on and off to stop health systems being overwhelmed.

[Iormlund]

Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day.

.

That's not how it works. Spread is exponential, not linear. The original strain doubled the amount of infected hosts every two to three days. Omicron can do that at least daily.

So if 2.5% of the population is infected now, tomorrow 5% will be and the day after 10%. Eventually the virus starts running out of "fuel" and the wave ends. But China is still a few weeks from that.
And in the meantime the health system will collapse, since there are about 100 million unvaccinated Chinese (with no natural immunity either).

[Legbiter]

Looks like it's starting to rip through China.

I just came back from two harrowing days traveling from emergency ward to emergency ward around Baoding in Hebei, one of the first areas hit by the current wave. The situation is very grim. ICU units totally overwhelmed.

https://twitter.com/dakekang/status/1606551661367132160