The China Thread

[Jacob]

You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

Why would the Xi regime desire to enact a hard crackdown and further backsliding? If they did desire a hard crackdown and further backsliding, why would they need to trigger mass public protests to do so?

Why would a regime which is notoriously sensitive about appearances and displays of dissent - even by Chinese standards - manufacture incidents to make themselves look foolish and illegitimate? Why would they deliberately undermine the image of "benevolent paternalists" that they work so hard to cultivate at all times?

Do you think the protests in Iran were staged by the regime there as well?

[Josquius]

You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

Why would the Xi regime desire to enact a hard crackdown and further backsliding? If they did desire a hard crackdown and further backsliding, why would they need to trigger mass public protests to do so?

Why would a regime which is notoriously sensitive about appearances and displays of dissent - even by Chinese standards - manufacture incidents to make themselves look foolish and illegitimate? Why would they deliberately undermine the image of "benevolent paternalists" that they work so hard to cultivate at all times?

Legitimising crack downs is very much part of the standard dictator playbook. Things were very much looking that way in light of Hong Kong, Xi's new term, continued covid measures, and other factors in China.
I really wouldn't be surprised if his plans are sped up out of this.

Do you think the protests in Iran were staged by the regime there as well?

As well?

[Sheilbh]

You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

I think that's working backwards. I don't think you can look at outcomes or results and work out causes from that.

I also don't think a harsh crackdown necessitated by a challenge to the legitimacy of the regime is helpful for Xi, even if it means stricter control.

Edit: There's definitely regimes that use agents provocateurs etc - but that's normally because they're already in a more unstable position (Tsarist Russia, South Africa spring to mind). But they didn't cause the underlying instability/attack on the regime's legitimacy.

[Sheilbh]

Jiang Zemin has died. Strikes me as a risky element to throw into the current situation.

But I was just reading about the history of Chinese protests and how many of them seem to happen or coalesce around funerals. So I might just have Zhou Enlai in mind but I wonder if there's a bit of a risk especially as Jiang is, I believe, associated with a looser more open time and more collective leadership?

[Josquius]

You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

I think that's working backwards. I don't think you can look at outcomes or results and work out causes from that.

I also don't think a harsh crackdown necessitated by a challenge to the legitimacy of the regime is helpful for Xi, even if it means stricter control.

Edit: There's definitely regimes that use agents provocateurs etc - but that's normally because they're already in a more unstable position (Tsarist Russia, South Africa spring to mind). But they didn't cause the underlying instability/attack on the regime's legitimacy.

I don't think its at all likely that the protests from the ground up are all the regime's doing.
I definitely wouldn't put it past them to use the opportunity to try and drag some dissidents out into the open however.

[Zanza]

A paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

[Legbiter]

A paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.

[Josquius]

A paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.

That's a potential big worry.
I hope moves are afoot to friendshore it?

[Duque de Bragança]

A paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.

Not to mention the masks.

[Jacob]

So it looks like the Xi regime has decided to do away with all anti-Covid measures - no lock-downs, no vaccine passports; but also no mask mandates and no testing anywhere.

Predictably, there are a lot of people who are getting really sick as Covid spreads like wildfire and the Chinese vaccinations are wearing off (or were less efficacious than hoped to begin with).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

That could turn very nasty very fast. Especially as their vaccine isn't efficient against more modern models of covid, there's no herd-immunity and there's been more than a few possible superspreader events (protests) already.
Whatever happens, this may backfire on Xi in full since he's the emperor resposible for everything.

[Sheilbh]

From what I've read, the Chinese vaccines are perfectly good - but they need three jabs and for whatever reason there's not been a massive campaign of getting jabs in arms. They focused on working age people so the stats on how many of the elderly are vaccinated is really alarming especially if you're looking at the full booster course. I believe vaccinations are now surging but where barely happening for months so there's a lot of catching up to do especialy with the most vulnerable.

The vaccine nationalism is also a problem because it means China can't just expand its programs by getting other vaccines from Western companies. I've no issue with countries bigging up their vaccines - I think it's probably quite good and helps enccourage people - but doing down other vaccines was a huge mistake in my view (as well as just wrong).

Sadly none of the vaccines are perfect and capable of stopping all deaths. So even countries that were really successful in zero covid approaches, like New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and Japan have now experienced deaths around the 400-600 per million figure - it's still vastly better than countries that failed to stop it straight away. China is still in single digits per million.

There's really no easy way out for China. There's never been a national lockdown but I wonder if we might see China going through something like the European experience (but with fewer deaths because it's happening when vaccines are available) of vaccine drive with intermittent lockdowns not to try and get to zero covid, but to stop the risk of the health system being overwhelmed? Again I just don't see an easy or good way out

[Josquius]

I wonder whether party people and other well connected folks are vaccinated and what with...

[The Minsky Moment]

The consensus seems to be that the mRNA vaccines are superior.  I don't know enough of the science to form an educated opinion as to the accuracy of the consensus.  However, observing that wealthy Chinese are crossing borders to get western mRNA vaccines whereas no one in the US and Europe seems to be seeking out the Chinese vaccine is evidence favoring the consensus.

[mongers]

I'm surprised the Xi regime has part backed down on the zero-covid policy.

Maybe they'll watch it rip through the population, say 'See We* were right' after all and re-institution harsh state control?


* Xi and the loyal CCP.