The State of Affairs in Russia

[Jacob]

Putin is waging a massive war on government corruption? I wish him luck.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Putin is waging a massive war on government corruption? I wish him luck.

Yes... ministers, officials, police officers and so on are landing behind bars en masse, their "hard-earned assets" being confiscated into the state treasury. In the mid-sized industrial dump of a town I used to live, the entire local administration was jailed and rightly so. Suddenly, the town is being rebuilt — as if by magic.

The new prime minister Mishustin is an administrative beast, driving a lot of change.

Internally, the current government is reasonably successful. Of course, still tons of major issues to address.

[Jacob]

Xi, similarly, is driving hard at anti-corruption in China. Curiously, however, almost everyone who is done in for corruption (and there are many) is either expendable or inconvenient to Xi... while at the same time Xi (and Xi's family) and people well connected to him continue getting wealthier and be offered all sorts of opportunities.

It seems very much like Xi is wielding anti-corruption as a political weapon, while happily allowing his allies and family to benefit from corruption.

[Sheilbh]

And similarly - until this confrontation - lots of commentators were noting the "social turn" in Putin's rhetoric and that, for example, the main focus in his New Year's press conference was mainly that especially raising living standards. It doesn't necessarily mean anything but seemed unusual if a leader's prepping their country for war.

Add to that - less like China - that Russia is hugely exposed to climate change and to decarbonisation. I'm not convinced Putin has established a real growth model outside of oil and gas (though I saw GdM's post on that earlier). I think he's smart enough to know that and also to know that oil and guess is not even a medium term bet anymore. I listend to one Russia expert/commentator speculate that a "heroic" style investment and rebuilding the domestic economy might be a project that appeals to Putin - especially building up Siberia, a bit like a 21st century virgin lands campaign. He even wondered if it might be something that would interest Shoigu who's acquired a good reputation as Defence Minister, is a potential successor but might want to build up some domestic policy achievements first.

[The Minsky Moment]

Okay, everyone, stand down.  Gaijin does not see the need for the invasion, so no need to be concerned about a large military force massed at the border.

Do you have a rational explanation on why Putin would invade? Every crime needs a motive.

I asked this question a dozen times. I got no logical response.

Ask me again if an invasion happens . . .

Right now all he is done is threaten to invade and backed that threat with very visible preparations on the ground.  There are a number of reasons why he might act in that way.

As to why he would invade, it is purely hypothetical at this point.  But to speculate, he may view the 2014 incursion and annexation of Crimea as a viable model.  He may think he can contain the fallout from a war with the limited aim of forcing a peace that creates a Russian puppet statelet or "autonomous region" in the eastern Ukraine.  Russia is better prepared for Western sanctions then it was in 2014 or at least Putin and the leadership think it is prepared and have reasons to think that way.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Ask me again if an invasion happens . . .

Right now all he is done is threaten to invade and backed that threat with very visible preparations on the ground.  There are a number of reasons why he might act in that way.

As to why he would invade, it is purely hypothetical at this point.  But to speculate, he may view the 2014 incursion and annexation of Crimea as a viable model.  He may think he can contain the fallout from a war with the limited aim of forcing a peace that creates a Russian puppet statelet or "autonomous region" in the eastern Ukraine.  Russia is better prepared for Western sanctions then it was in 2014 or at least Putin and the leadership think it is prepared and have reasons to think that way.

Interesting — you're assuming Ukraine holds any value that would justify a military conquest. I don't think it does. Even forgetting the sanctions, pacifying a conquered country is almost an impossible task (cue Afghanistan for any empire which attempted to control it).

So far, Russia has abstained from sponsoring and executing colour revolutions, at least as far as I know. It's a much smarter way to get vassals or simply neutral regimes into power. You can even build an entire epic story around this event, like they did in Ukraine.

I wonder if RU would ever do this.

[Josquius]

Curious how slavic solidarity between Bulgaria and Russia is expected but not between Bulgaria and Ukraine.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

And similarly - until this confrontation - lots of commentators were noting the "social turn" in Putin's rhetoric and that, for example, the main focus in his New Year's press conference was mainly that especially raising living standards. It doesn't necessarily mean anything but seemed unusual if a leader's prepping their country for war.

This is still being done. He introduced a whole set of measures to support families with children, for example.

His pension reform massively dropped his approval ratings though. The Russians were too spoiled, retiring at 55-60. He gradually raised the age by 5 years, whilst increasing the payouts.

Being closely exposed to the internal agenda in Russia, all this war talk completely took me by surprise.  The internal narrative was dominated by measures to support young families to have more children, increasing longevity, combatting domestic violence, raising the living standards, fighting corruption, supporting various religious denominations, and so on.

[Sheilbh]

Curious how slavic solidarity between Bulgaria and Russia is expected but not between Bulgaria and Ukraine.

It's a bit like Germany's sense of historic responsibility being invoked in relation to policy with Russia, but not Ukraine so much (maybe a perception of Russia as the successor state of the Soviet Union, while Ukraine isn't? ).

[viper37]

Even forgetting the sanctions, pacifying a conquered country is almost an impossible task (cue Afghanistan for any empire which attempted to control it).

I don't know.  Russia always had a way to pacify occupied countries in the past.

[Legbiter]

The Russian quality of life is still far behind Europe and US on some aspects, but it's the highest in all the history of that country.

I know my opinions are unpopular on this board, but that's what I see.

Yeah. The Russian people given how the 20th century turned out deserve at least 10 centuries of peace and quiet. A nice life with children, an active social calendar and community obligations and a yearly 3 point something interest on the retirement fund above inflation over a 30 year period. 

[Solmyr]

And similarly - until this confrontation - lots of commentators were noting the "social turn" in Putin's rhetoric and that, for example, the main focus in his New Year's press conference was mainly that especially raising living standards. It doesn't necessarily mean anything but seemed unusual if a leader's prepping their country for war.

Add to that - less like China - that Russia is hugely exposed to climate change and to decarbonisation. I'm not convinced Putin has established a real growth model outside of oil and gas (though I saw GdM's post on that earlier). I think he's smart enough to know that and also to know that oil and guess is not even a medium term bet anymore. I listend to one Russia expert/commentator speculate that a "heroic" style investment and rebuilding the domestic economy might be a project that appeals to Putin - especially building up Siberia, a bit like a 21st century virgin lands campaign. He even wondered if it might be something that would interest Shoigu who's acquired a good reputation as Defence Minister, is a potential successor but might want to build up some domestic policy achievements first.

It's pretty obvious that Putin considers having to deal with the welfare of Russian people as an annoying distraction to his grand geopolitical ambitions. He sounds like he's barely paying attention whenever he speaks about it, and mostly makes the same empty promises of "things will get better" every year.

Shoigu's suggestion of building huge cities in Siberia was laughable. There are no people to populate such cities, nobody in their right mind would voluntarily move to Siberia.

[Solmyr]

Being closely exposed to the internal agenda in Russia, all this war talk completely took me by surprise.  The internal narrative was dominated by measures to support young families to have more children, increasing longevity, combatting domestic violence, raising the living standards, fighting corruption, supporting various religious denominations, and so on.

Oh yeah, that sounds like combatting domestic violence alright: https://time.com/5942127/russia-domestic-violence-women/

[Gaijin de Moscu]

It's pretty obvious that Putin considers having to deal with the welfare of Russian people as an annoying distraction to his grand geopolitical ambitions. He sounds like he's barely paying attention whenever he speaks about it, and mostly makes the same empty promises of "things will get better" every year.

Shoigu's suggestion of building huge cities in Siberia was laughable. There are no people to populate such cities, nobody in their right mind would voluntarily move to Siberia.

I see it the exact opposite way.

The geopolitical moves of Russia are designed to serve the internal agenda. For example, the action in Syria was most likely taken to block the pipeline from Qatar and keep the RU share in the European energy markets, thus securing income for internal social reforms. It also was a signal to RU's allies that it's a reliable partner who would step in when needed. It served as a showroom for the RU weapons, helping secure many profitable deals. Finally, it allowed RU to give combat experience to its special ops and aviation troops, and battle-test its emerging armament systems.

As for the cities in Siberia — Shoigu approaches this as a minister of defence. He wants to place the critical decision-making infrastructure of his country in the most defensible location away from the western borders.

Putin is doing this differently. He's reducing the symbolic importance of Kremlin, and dispersing his government infrastructure across Moscow, St-Pete, and Sochi.

Edit: typos 

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Oh yeah, that sounds like combatting domestic violence alright: https://time.com/5942127/russia-domestic-violence-women/

It's a huge problem. The government has been pushing some important laws through.

For example, repeat offenders against children will now almost automatically get life sentence.