The State of Affairs in Russia

[crazy canuck]

@Sheilbh: I am with Berkut here and don't get why we need a "development model". The West is literally "on top of the world" in just about every statistic that matters.

The only thing that can topple Western leadership is as you say distrust in our own system and turning to authoritarianism,I.e. becoming more like e.g. China or Russia.

The main threats I see to Liberal Democracy is that it has been undermined from within by the right starting in the Reagan/Thatcher years so that now we have societies with dramatic wealth and income disparity combined with declining social mobility. 

The thing that can topple Western leadership is the policies and politics of the West and the damage those things do to the West.

Agreed. I would add two grassroots trends: a) distrust in science and facts as presented by "elites" and b) the filter bubble in media consumption. Those exacerbate the top-down policies you mention.

Agreed

@sheilbh - I also agree with your point about the post Reagan years - I was just picking the starting point of where the damage starting being done.

[DGuller]

We're sending two frigates to the Black Sea. I hope they come back. We haven't finished paying for them yet...

If they don't, write it off as sunk costs.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The Russian troops are on the Russian territory in response to the NATO activity in Ukraine. We've talked this.

And yep, nothing will happen.

I agree with this, but probably not in the way you intended.

To claim that the Russian troops are there to defend against a couple hundred civilian subcontractors who are training Ukrainians to use their new military gear is farcical..

They are there as a show of force to bully Ukraine into not applying for NATO membership.

Have you considered the internal inconsistency of threatening to invade a country (which has recently been invaded and had part of its territory unilaterally annexed) in order to prevent that country from entering into alliances to safeguard its security?

No, they're not there to defend against a hundred sub-contractors, lol.

Anyway, after the speeches by Putin, Zelensky, and Biden I'm now even more convinced that we're watching a carefully orchestrated performance. Both the Russian and Ukrainian leaders are telling their populations to relax and not get caught in emotions. Zelensky pretty much called the rumours of invasion "manipulation."

I'm going to go ahead and agree with them at this stage. I'm no longer giving my energy to this issue. Will wait for the next one

[Gaijin de Moscu]

had part of its territory unilaterally annexed

I've read and fully understood the western dominant legal view on this issue, for example here:

https://www.mpil.de/files/pdf4/Marxsen_2014_-_The_crimea_crisis_-_an_international_law_perspective.pdf

... and the Russian dominant legal view expressed here, for example:

https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/krymskoe-pravo-ili-yuridicheskie-osnovaniya-dlya-vossoedineniya-kryma-s-rossiey/viewer

I simply don't see how these two diametrically opposite views can ever be reconciled. Both sides feel fully justified in their positions.

My father's family comes from Simferopol Crimea, so this peninsula will always remain my fatherland, whoever it belongs to politically

[Tamas]

The Russian troops are on the Russian territory in response to the NATO activity in Ukraine. We've talked this.

And yep, nothing will happen.

I agree with this, but probably not in the way you intended.

To claim that the Russian troops are there to defend against a couple hundred civilian subcontractors who are training Ukrainians to use their new military gear is farcical..

They are there as a show of force to bully Ukraine into not applying for NATO membership.

Have you considered the internal inconsistency of threatening to invade a country (which has recently been invaded and had part of its territory unilaterally annexed) in order to prevent that country from entering into alliances to safeguard its security?

No, they're not there to defend against a hundred sub-contractors, lol.

Anyway, after the speeches by Putin, Zelensky, and Biden I'm now even more convinced that we're watching a carefully orchestrated performance. Both the Russian and Ukrainian leaders are telling their populations to relax and not get caught in emotions. Zelensky pretty much called the rumours of invasion "manipulation."

I'm going to go ahead and agree with them at this stage. I'm no longer giving my energy to this issue. Will wait for the next one

Let me guess if the tanks assembled for the military exercise in Belarus will roll south and take Kiev, you'd consider that the West's fault?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Let me guess if the tanks assembled for the military exercise in Belarus will roll south and take Kiev, you'd consider that the West's fault?

If they start rolling, let's then talk.

Why engage in theoretical discussion which will only drain your and my energies? It's not wise.

[DGuller]

I guess some people want to pin you down before it happens, because they suspect that if Russia does invade, you're going to go "of course they're justified, Ukrainians did attack that radio station".

[Admiral Yi]

*Whether* Russia invades or not is a pointless debate and best left to the betting markets.

How to best respond to Russia's massing of troops on the border is non-theoretical.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I guess some people want to pin you down before it happens, because they suspect that if Russia does invade, you're going to go "of course they're justified, Ukrainians did attack that radio station".

Funny how you and Tamas are putting your words into my mouth. It's like you know what's going to happen and who will be to "blame."

I simply don't know what will happen, so what do you want me to say?

You know, I'm a member of a large group in Telegram (about 4000 people). Roughly 40% of participants are from Russia, same from Ukraine, the rest are from Belarus, Baltics, Kazakhstan, a bunch of random Russian speakers from around the world.

You'll never guess what we're discussing there.

It's the amount of snow in Kamchatka, the difference between the Ukrainian and Russian borscht, how to create passive income streams, and so on. Not a single mention of tanks, invasions, "pinning someone down"...

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Meanwhile, the non-raw material, non-energy export from Russia has set a new record in 2021, growing 36% versus year ago to $191 billion.

https://amp.rbc.ru/rbcnews/rbcfreenews/61e8746f9a7947475ba309fb

The top 5 buyers were China ($15.6 Bln), Kazakhstan ($14.4), Belarus ($11.4), Turkey ($10.9) and the US ($7.9bln).

This record was set even though Russia removed gold from this category in January 2021, so it was done against a higher base.

Still relatively low numbers on a global scale, but it's encouraging to see less reliance on the natural gas, oil, and raw materials. Incidentally, the international sanctions seemed to have contributed to this: Russia finally got serious about rebuilding its agriculture and industry after the communist legacy of universal decline and collapse.

Edit: just saw that the trading exchange between RU and UA in 2021 also grew by 20% vs. YA on average both ways, according to the Voice of America which quotes Ukrainian data:

https://www.golosameriki.com/amp/ukraine-russia-trade/6354236.html

[Sheilbh]

The other interesting diplomatic angle is Turkey (who are exporting to Ukraine the same drones Azerbaijan used so effectively against Armenia). Erdogan had suggested a summit with Putin and Zelenskiy which the Kremlin rejected because Turkey was "pumping up Ukraine with weapons". But Erdogan has announced that Putin is visitng Turkey soon - and, apparently, ahead of Erdogan's own planned trip to Kyiv.

[jimmy olsen]

However, I have trouble buying that Putin actually and sincerely believes the nonsense he spews. He's supposed to be a chess master of manipulation, not a lucky rube like Trump.

I'm baffled where people got this idea. Putin is absolutely a lucky rube, he was a two-bit gang member from the slums who became a KGB pawn and then moved into organized crime, which propelled him to the top in the 90s.

That's like saying Stalin was just a lucky bank robber.

[Malthus]

This is interesting:

https://www.state.gov/russias-top-five-persistent-disinformation-narratives/

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The other interesting diplomatic angle is Turkey (who are exporting to Ukraine the same drones Azerbaijan used so effectively against Armenia). Erdogan had suggested a summit with Putin and Zelenskiy which the Kremlin rejected because Turkey was "pumping up Ukraine with weapons". But Erdogan has announced that Putin is visitng Turkey soon - and, apparently, ahead of Erdogan's own planned trip to Kyiv.

This is an interesting angle, also given Turkey's economic interests in Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea parts of which used to belong to Ottomans and their vassal.

I'm convinced that Russia and Turkey are closely coordinating their actions over the last few years. Will be interesting to see what comes of it. So far, Putin has shown no desire whatsoever to talk with Zelensky whom he doesn't see as able to make independent decisions.

[The Brain]

This is interesting:

https://www.state.gov/russias-top-five-persistent-disinformation-narratives/