The State of Affairs in Russia

[The Minsky Moment]

No but some of them are on their way to Belarus for joint military exercises.

Routine, I'm sure.

For a different perspective:

If our Western colleagues continue the obviously aggressive stance, we will take appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps," Putin said at a Defense Ministry board meeting, according to the state-run TASS news agency.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/21/putin-warns-of-military-technical-response-to-western-aggression-a75891#:~:text=President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20threatened%20a%20%E2%80%9Cmilitary-technical%E2%80%9D%20response%20Tuesday,Moscow%27s%20ongoing%20tensions%20with%20Western%20countries%20over%20Ukraine.

[The Minsky Moment]

I.e the reason why there is an "invasion narrative" is not because of some obscure conspiracy among "Western media" or hysterical neo-con retreads.  It's because Putin is very deliberately fomenting such a narrative.

[Malthus]

Thinking on the situation of Russia and Ukraine - a somewhat applicable historical precedent, in one respect, is the War of 1812. That respect is how it helped form Canadian nationalism.

Russia and Russians tend to view Ukraine as simply more Russia, that Ukrainian identity is a false construct, one encouraged or even instigated by the West. Many Ukrainian citizens are in fact Russian in origin, speak mostly Russian. So Russia figures why not assimilate them?

Similarly, in Upper Canada, prior to the War of 1812 many of the inhabitants were in fact of recent American origin. Canadians tend to remember the "united empire loyalists" who fled the revolution, but in point of fact, most locals of recent American origin were not loyalists - they came for cheap land opportunities. The Americans knew this (and so did the British), and both anticipated that many of the locals would really be loyal to America, not the Empire.

The war though changed all that - as the war's fortunes swayed one way then the other, raiding, burning and military impositions hardened attitudes - on the Canadian side, gradually uniting public opinion against the invaders. Stuff like the burning of Niagara on the Lake, the sack of York, etc. basically discredited those citizens who were loyal to the US, and created the beginnings of a distinct English-Canadian identity (French Canadian identity having a separate origin).

A similar effect is going on in Ukraine. There were many in the territory of Ukraine who may have been loyal to Russia, given a chance. However, they have been thoroughly discredited by Russia's aggressive actions. The use by Russia of "separatists" as Trojan horses for Russian intervention, the constant treats and harassment, and now this - all are forging an oppositional Ukrainian identity.

I think the process is not reversible. Russia may well defeat Ukraine militarily, and the West may allow that to happen. But mere defeat can't erase a nationalist attitude once it has formed. Indeed, it may harden it. Ukrainians are very unlikely to see *themselves* as Russians now, and for that, the Russian government itself is to blame.

[The Minsky Moment]

Interesting analogy.

I would add that to the extent we are premising arguments on the effects of past historical events on present day national attitudes, I imagine the Holodomor is not likely to promote great trust and faith in Russian leadership, at least among some Ukrainians.

[Malthus]

Interesting analogy.

I would add that to the extent we are premising arguments on the effects of past historical events on present day national attitudes, I imagine the Holodomor is not likely to promote great trust and faith in Russian leadership, at least among some Ukrainians.

The usual answer to that from the Russian side is that historical crimes committed against Ukrainians were crimes of the communist leadership that were also committed against ethnic Russians, so not a Russian vs. Ukrainian thing. Of course, Stalin himself was Georgian ...

Also, many of those with Russian background currently within the borders of Ukraine, were moved there by the Soviets ... and these folks are some of those whose sympathies are now up for grabs.

[DGuller]

And lots of communists were Ukrainian anyway, so actually Ukrainians were the perpetrators...

[garbon]

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Interesting analogy.

I would add that to the extent we are premising arguments on the effects of past historical events on present day national attitudes, I imagine the Holodomor is not likely to promote great trust and faith in Russian leadership, at least among some Ukrainians.

The usual answer to that from the Russian side is that historical crimes committed against Ukrainians were crimes of the communist leadership that were also committed against ethnic Russians, so not a Russian vs. Ukrainian thing. Of course, Stalin himself was Georgian ...

Also, many of those with Russian background currently within the borders of Ukraine, were moved there by the Soviets ... and these folks are some of those whose sympathies are now up for grabs.

The communism was a nightmare which happened to us all who lived there. We honestly didn't even think about nationalities back then — we thought in terms of social classes. I grew up in Uzbekistan, no one cared that I was half-UA/half-RU. Everyone cared about my class origins and my family connections though.

And yes, a lot of Ukrainians live in Russia and vice versa. And many Russians ended up in Ukraine because the communists moved them there along with their lands (Crimea, Donbas, Odessa...). Doesn't mean Russia should invade, of course.

I personally don't know a more savagely Russophobic / Ukraino-fobic regime than the communists.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

So... why should Russia invade?

[Zoupa]

GdM, the West is talking about the threat of Russian invasion because Russia has amassed its soldiers on Ukraine's borders.

I just don't get the supposed motive for this invasion.

I'm not sure motive even matters, it seems to be happening. Or at least Russia is spending lots of money and diplomatic capital on making the threat of it happening real.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

GdM, the West is talking about the threat of Russian invasion because Russia has amassed its soldiers on Ukraine's borders.

I just don't get the supposed motive for this invasion.

I'm not sure motive even matters, it seems to be happening. Or at least Russia is spending lots of money and diplomatic capital on making the threat of it happening real.

How can it be happening without the need?

The Russians said repeatedly the troops are there because of the NATO activity.

We're in a deadlock.

[DGuller]

Okay, everyone, stand down.  Gaijin does not see the need for the invasion, so no need to be concerned about a large military force massed at the border.

[Zoupa]

Allez arrête.. quelle activité de l'OTAN? Les 3 ou 4 instructeurs, ca requiert 100 000 troupes et des chars d'assaut?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Okay, everyone, stand down.  Gaijin does not see the need for the invasion, so no need to be concerned about a large military force massed at the border.

Do you have a rational explanation on why Putin would invade? Every crime needs a motive.

I asked this question a dozen times. I got no logical response.

[Sheilbh]

Russia has said during the talks going on today that they want NATO troops withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria which is, I think, new and it seems strange to escalate the demands.

I saw that Romania have rejected and France has called for more troops to be put into Romania and Bulgaria instead