The State of Affairs in Russia

[Josquius]

However, I have trouble buying that Putin actually and sincerely believes the nonsense he spews. He's supposed to be a chess master of manipulation, not a lucky rube like Trump.

I'm baffled where people got this idea. Putin is absolutely a lucky rube, he was a two-bit gang member from the slums who became a KGB pawn and then moved into organized crime, which propelled him to the top in the 90s.

I don't know if that career path gels with just being lucky. It's quite the impressive climb.
Sure, roll a million dice and you'll likely get a fair few sixes. But I suspect given Putins staying power there is some actual skill there.

With trump too I wouldn't be so keen to just dismiss him as an idiot. His wisdom and int stat may be low but he has some kind of weird setup to give him 18+ charisma on stupid (mostly white) people. Grifting takes some skill.

[The Brain]

Trump is incredibly stupid, likely not fully sentient. This appeals to the American voter.

[Tamas]

What? I don't think it's spite or smugness

It's aspiration and a little bit of grandeur.

Who should we believe about what you think? You or Berkut?

Calling Zoupa's butthurt nationalism grandeur is pushing it a bit though. :p

Not as much as Trianon pushed back Hungary's borders though. 

Forgot to react to this. You are very much right of course, I DO have extensive experience of witnessing the spite in people resulting from the collision of perceived national importance with the cold embrace of reality. I can spot it from a mile away.

[DGuller]

To get to the very top of anything you have to be very lucky, and it helps a lot to also be very good.  The richest self-made people have all been very lucky in their lives, the top sportspeople have all been very lucky in their lives, and so on. 

People seem to have this concept that being lucky precludes ones from being good, when they're really orthogonal concepts.  Skill alone, no matter how great, isn't nearly enough to get you to the top of the pile of millions and millions of people.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Swedish Commander-in-Chief has gone public with a comment that if the west agrees to the Russian demands, he will not be able to do his job.

Meanwhile, the Swedish strategic reserve, the military force of last and first (it's also a rapid reaction force) resort have moved out to Gotland, increasing the presence there with 150 soldiers. The total strategic reserve is a company on 150 soldiers. 

Heads should be rolling over this, but the journalists are mostly leftist airheads not understanding anything so no tough questions are being asked of the politicians.

For the first time in years however, a Swedish Armed Forces news item made it to lemonde.fr

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/01/20/l-armee-suedoise-envoie-des-renforts-sur-l-ile-de-gotland-en-plein-c-ur-de-la-baltique_6110181_3210.html

Article says 350 military personnel were already there, with 150 more as reinforcements.

[Zoupa]

What? I don't think it's spite or smugness

It's aspiration and a little bit of grandeur.

Who should we believe about what you think? You or Berkut?

Calling Zoupa's butthurt nationalism grandeur is pushing it a bit though. :p

Not as much as Trianon pushed back Hungary's borders though. 

Forgot to react to this. You are very much right of course, I DO have extensive experience of witnessing the spite in people resulting from the collision of perceived national importance with the cold embrace of reality. I can spot it from a mile away.

Not to be an asshole, but there's a difference in the options and capabilities of Hungary and France.

French defense and foreign policy is not operating in lalaland, I don't think we have any illusions about our real "power".

France looks for force multipliers. Nuclear weapons, humint, the EU, Françafrique, even now Macron's call for a European solution to Ukraine-Russia.

[Malthus]

However, I have trouble buying that Putin actually and sincerely believes the nonsense he spews. He's supposed to be a chess master of manipulation, not a lucky rube like Trump.

I'm baffled where people got this idea. Putin is absolutely a lucky rube, he was a two-bit gang member from the slums who became a KGB pawn and then moved into organized crime, which propelled him to the top in the 90s.

He's an ex KGB spook who managed to survive a free for all among a lot of scary Russian crime bosses. Of course he's lucky, but it seems pretty likely he's tough and clever.

Agreed that people merely *suppose* he's a chess master, because of some of his apparently clever moves - like getting Trump beholden to him. Perhaps the contrast between him and Trump makes him shine by comparison.

Dictators being taken for clever before they screw up isn't uncommon. Mussolini was largely admired for his cleverness, before WW2, even by people who hated him. Not so much after WW2.

[Sheilbh]

Not to be an asshole, but there's a difference in the options and capabilities of Hungary and France.

French defense and foreign policy is not operating in lalaland, I don't think we have any illusions about our real "power".

France looks for force multipliers. Nuclear weapons, humint, the EU, Françafrique, even now Macron's call for a European solution to Ukraine-Russia.

I do think it was badly timed and unfortunate given the previous unity - that's exactly what I said when I posted it.

But ultimately I'm not sure America has or wants to have a military big enough to increase or even maintain current commitments in Europe and have a chance of restoring their edge in Asia v China. I think Biden recognises that there is a need to prioritise which is exactly why he gave that speech after Afghanistan that is key. Because they will need to prioritise I think they will choose facing the rising power, rather than increasing commitments to defend one of the richest areas of the world against a declining power.

But I think in Europe only the UK and France recognise it. Or they're they only ones willing to acknowledge it even if others know it's happening (I think it is striking that France and the UK have both very recently increased their naval commitments in the Baltic and Black Sea). I think Macron's approach is necessary.

I also think that the EU for all of the grand rhetoric around it, bends towards accountancy - see the slightly mad video of the EU as Clint Eastwood in the wild west of digital markets posted by one of the Commissioners. Which is a very dramatic "cool guy" way of framing market regulations It's good to have a bit of ambition and vision about it which is what Macron does at his best that goes beyond that stuff.

[Threviel]

The Swedish Commander-in-Chief has gone public with a comment that if the west agrees to the Russian demands, he will not be able to do his job.

Meanwhile, the Swedish strategic reserve, the military force of last and first (it's also a rapid reaction force) resort have moved out to Gotland, increasing the presence there with 150 soldiers. The total strategic reserve is a company on 150 soldiers. 

Heads should be rolling over this, but the journalists are mostly leftist airheads not understanding anything so no tough questions are being asked of the politicians.

For the first time in years however, a Swedish Armed Forces news item made it to lemonde.fr

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/01/20/l-armee-suedoise-envoie-des-renforts-sur-l-ile-de-gotland-en-plein-c-ur-de-la-baltique_6110181_3210.html

Article says 350 military personnel were already there, with 150 more as reinforcements.

Yeah, there's an Armoured Regiment based on Gotland.

[PJL]

But I think in Europe only the UK and France recognise it. Or they're they only ones willing to acknowledge it even if others know it's happening (I think it is striking that France and the UK have both very recently increased their naval commitments in the Baltic and Black Sea). I think Macron's approach is necessary.

So Second Crimean War it is then...

[viper37]

Article says 350 military personnel were already there, with 150 more as reinforcements.

so, they moved their entire army over there?  Wow.

[Razgovory]

I'm not sure what you're talking about Raz. Macron literally wants the opposite, EU defense and foreign policy.

these next few weeks should lead us to bring about a European proposal building a new order of security and stability. We must build it between Europeans

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-wants-new-euro-russian-security-negotiation/

Seems like there are countries that aren't part of the EU.

[celedhring]

We're sending two frigates to the Black Sea. I hope they come back. We haven't finished paying for them yet...

[celedhring]

Incidentally, there's a Catalan saying that goes "God give us water, clear days, and war in Sevastopol" 

[Syt]

We're sending two frigates to the Black Sea. I hope they come back. We haven't finished paying for them yet...

If they don't, write it off as sunk costs.