The State of Affairs in Russia

[Sheilbh]

Gaijin, so as I understand what you are claiming is that the civilian protesters largely concluded it was mission completed when the gas subsidies were restored and went home, but armed tribe militias reinforced by foreign agents remained on the streets to stage a coup?

The opposition press in Russia is reporting that the violence is basically an intra-elite fight. There are protests which has caused unrest. But the violence is basically between remnants and supporters of Nazarbayev and his family who were being removed from positions of power (and also rent-seeking) v the state led by his successor. It had been a peaceful transition and Nazarbayev has been removed from his life position but has been getting sidelined for a while - that's what, allegedly, is causing the violence and the confused response from the security forces. No idea if that's true.

Again this and Gaijin's analysis makes me think it's more not less of a revolutionary situation - what's more normal than protests and anger at a regime being used by armed elites to clean house, or for the most well-armed, disciplined (and often radical) group to rise to the top?

Edit: And reports that Nazarbayev and most of his family have now left the country - which would possibly seem to link to the opposition reporting in Russia. And a bit of a sign that no matter how much Putin might like you (and Nazarbayev's family members are on the board of Gazprom) he'd rather stability/support the state once you've left office - which might have consequences elsewhere.

[Zoupa]

Gaijin, so as I understand what you are claiming is that the civilian protesters largely concluded it was mission completed when the gas subsidies were restored and went home, but armed tribe militias reinforced by foreign agents remained on the streets to stage a coup?

That's one possible scenario, yes. I believe it's the most likely one, but I could be wrong.

We don't have enough info to conclude anything yet.

What evidence is there of foreign militants?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

What evidence is there of foreign militants?

Currently it's an assumption based on beheadings.

I guess we'll know at least a portion of truth when the investigations conclude.

[Tamas]

Gaijin, so as I understand what you are claiming is that the civilian protesters largely concluded it was mission completed when the gas subsidies were restored and went home, but armed tribe militias reinforced by foreign agents remained on the streets to stage a coup?

The opposition press in Russia is reporting that the violence is basically an intra-elite fight. There are protests which has caused unrest. But the violence is basically between remnants and supporters of Nazarbayev and his family who were being removed from positions of power (and also rent-seeking) v the state led by his successor. It had been a peaceful transition and Nazarbayev has been removed from his life position but has been getting sidelined for a while - that's what, allegedly, is causing the violence and the confused response from the security forces. No idea if that's true.

Again this and Gaijin's analysis makes me think it's more not less of a revolutionary situation - what's more normal than protests and anger at a regime being used by armed elites to clean house, or for the most well-armed, disciplined (and often radical) group to rise to the top?

Edit: And reports that Nazarbayev and most of his family have now left the country - which would possibly seem to link to the opposition reporting in Russia. And a bit of a sign that no matter how much Putin might like you (and Nazarbayev's family members are on the board of Gazprom) he'd rather stability/support the state once you've left office - which might have consequences elsewhere.

Fair enough. Seeing pro-democracy revolutions into every popular uprising I am definitely against. But as I tried to explain before, I am convinced that economic failure by the regime had to contribute to the unrest and you need significant unrest to see these kind of protests in a country like that. This could not have been a case of a content stable country flipped into such chaos at a press of a button by some contender for the top post.

If Nazarbayev has fled it would support the point that there's a powerbloc which have stepped in to support and benefit from the unrest though - I doubt the regime would fall apart this quickly from a decentralised uprising.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Fair enough. Seeing pro-democracy revolutions into every popular uprising I am definitely against. But as I tried to explain before, I am convinced that economic failure by the regime had to contribute to the unrest and you need significant unrest to see these kind of protests in a country like that. This could not have been a case of a content stable country flipped into such chaos at a press of a button by some contender for the top post.

If Nazarbayev has fled it would support the point that there's a powerbloc which have stepped in to support and benefit from the unrest though - I doubt the regime would fall apart this quickly from a decentralised uprising.

Yes, it appears Nazarbaev has fled. We'll know more later.

It also appears the original organisers of these protests have lost control. Here's the video, allegedly by one of these leaders, recorded one day before his arrest.

In this video, he says things like "people, what are you doing? Why are you killing others? The policemen are simple Kazakhs like you and me, why are you killing our brothers? Why are you looting and raping our women? These are not the protests we wanted!" And so on. My translation is approximate, as he switches from Russian to Kazakh:

https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/20361

What also surprised me is the amount of gear Russia is shipping over there. Here's just one batch:

https://youtu.be/x9i7Quh3mMc

It's like they're repelling an invasion.

(Edited for the correct video)

[Berkut]

What evidence is there of foreign militants?

Currently it's an assumption based on beheadings.

I guess we'll know at least a portion of truth when the investigations conclude.

Who would be doing these truth seeking investigations?

[garbon]

Thanks, Radio Sputnik?

Newsweek, for example:

https://www.newsweek.com/police-officer-beheaded-kazakhstan-russia-protests-violence-almaty-1666378%3famp=1

They are reporting 1 policeman beheaded, local news report up to 3. So I took 2.

It's violent there. Nothing peaceful about that botched coup attempt.

I think your subsequent posts and the below more than justify my retort.

Nord Stream 2 could help normalise the prices, but for political reasons it's been stalled by our European partners.

[Berkut]

If only the evil Westerners would not politicize gas delivery!

[Sheilbh]

Fair enough. Seeing pro-democracy revolutions into every popular uprising I am definitely against. But as I tried to explain before, I am convinced that economic failure by the regime had to contribute to the unrest and you need significant unrest to see these kind of protests in a country like that. This could not have been a case of a content stable country flipped into such chaos at a press of a button by some contender for the top post.

Oh absolutely and I think there is definitely homegrown protests and demands - but it strikes me as plausible that the reason it seemed to escalate so quickly and the role of the security forces was very confused is because there was an intra-elite struggle and someone tried to take advantage of the chaos caused by protests to clean house/settle scores.

If Nazarbayev has fled it would support the point that there's a powerbloc which have stepped in to support and benefit from the unrest though - I doubt the regime would fall apart this quickly from a decentralised uprising.

Just as a quick flag on the British angle. Nazarbayev would no doubt be able to flee to one of his properties in London - I believe the City, in its standard role as amoral facilitator of looting, has helped Kazakh leaders and oligarchs build up a huge £500 million neatly laundered set of assets in the rest of the world. And of course Tony Blair was for several years after his premiership paid by Nazarbayev to offer consultancy (including on PR) on human rights.

[DGuller]

And of course Tony Blair was for several years after his premiership paid by Nazarbayev to offer consultancy (including on PR) on human rights.

Ugh, sounds like a horrible job.  I'm sure it paid well, but it really kills your motivation when your boss doesn't really believe in your work product.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Who would be doing these truth seeking investigations?

The law enforcement, of course. Who else?

[Berkut]

Who would be doing these truth seeking investigations?

The law enforcement, of course. Who else?

Nobody else. I am just amused at the idea that there is going to be some "truth seeking" investigation.

It will be as truthful as RT reporting on how that jetliner was full of dummies.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Nobody else. I am just amused at the idea that there is going to be some "truth seeking" investigation.

It will be as truthful as RT reporting on how that jetliner was full of dummies.

My rule #1 is to never watch the mainstream mass media. In any country Well, I do make an exception for Japan to watch their wacky programs.

But the truth tends to come out, eventually. We'll see.

[Jacob]

I would suggest that what's happening now in Kazakhstan is not a "revolution against a hated regime", but an internal strife between three Kazakh Hordes (Zhuz's) fuelled by external militant forces who are explicitly anti-Russian.

What is the source of the "external militant forces who are explicitly anti-Russian"? Is this being blamed on the West? Muslims?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

What is the source of the "external militant forces who are explicitly anti-Russian"? Is this being blamed on the West? Muslims?

After a quick scan of the Russian media, I see 2 main theories related to the "foreign" influence:

- West (US/UK) attempted to destabilise the vulnerable Russian borders in the south ahead of the Jan 10 Geneva meeting.

- One of the competing oligarchs has brought in militants with experience of fighting in Syria and Iraq. Mind you, "foreign" doesn't have to be anything else than Kyrgyz, Uzbek, or Russian for example (we have more than our fair share of home-grown terrorists.)