The State of Affairs in Russia

[Sheilbh]

So has anyone raised the idea of involving Ukraine in discussing Ukraine with Russia, or are we really doing a Czechoslovakia here?

Agreed.

The White House line has consistently been that there will be no discussions or decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. But I think the US approach of having a few tracks is probably the right one - a line with Russia, a line with NATO allies (particularly in the region) and a line with Ukraine. Because Ukraine is a friendly country that has been invaded because it wants to be closer to Europe - what kicked all this off was Euromaidan and the association agreemement with the EU, not NATO - but practically it's not a member of NATO or the EU so I think it's fair to have them on a separate track.

Sheilbh and me have said so before here on the board. It's hardly a controversial view.

Exactly - I think we've agreed on that and on some possible solutions because I think the world and certainly Europe's neighbourhood would be better if the EU was a foreign policy actor.

But we're not there yet and I'm not convinced by the "if we build it they will come" approach works where you build structures, issue statements and demand a seat at the table before building the internal capacity and trust.

[Zanza]

Berkut, just imagine the United States, but not with virtually all foreign policy competence concentrated in a single person, but rather in a kind of senate (but with the state govenors I stead of senators) that always needs to decide unanimously on any foreign policy. With a structure like that, you only have foreign policy power when there is full consensus. A single domestic opponent stops it...

[Berkut]

Berkut, just imagine the United States, but not with virtually all foreign policy competence concentrated in a single person, but rather in a kind of senate (but with the state govenors I stead of senators) that always needs to decide unanimously on any foreign policy. With a structure like that, you only have foreign policy power when there is full consensus. A single domestic opponent stops it...

Right. That is...unfortunate. A situation where a Putin can trivially neuter it.

[Valmy]

Berkut, just imagine the United States, but not with virtually all foreign policy competence concentrated in a single person, but rather in a kind of senate (but with the state govenors I stead of senators) that always needs to decide unanimously on any foreign policy. With a structure like that, you only have foreign policy power when there is full consensus. A single domestic opponent stops it...

I don't think I need to imagine it:



Europeans do love these big dysfunctional confederations.

[Sheilbh]

Right. That is...unfortunate. A situation where a Putin can trivially neuter it.

You don't even need Putin to meddle. Add in the geography - one side faces Russia, the other faces the Middle East and North Africa and a lot are distant from either border and live some of the most pleasant and well-to-do lives in the world. It's tough to get a common perception of risks, threats or priorities in that environment.

I don't know if it'll be possible until people think of themselves as Europeans in the way Americans think of themselves as American. Or at least until they are able to identify and empathise with each other despite their governments (which I think is happening - but as the Eurozone crisis and all the foreign policy stuff shows is still a work in progress).

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally, meanwhile in Almaty:


The President's announced his patron the former leader (since 1991) will step aside from his remaining roles. But also said this is clearly a conspiracy which he's going to respond to "as toughly as possible", they have also called for Russian help countering "terrorism". Apparently he's spoken to Putin and Lukashenko.

Separately apparently there's a list of demands from the People's Committee of Kazakhstan (whoever they are):

1. lower food prices
2. lower fuel prices
3. lowering the pension age to 58/60
4. resignation of the entire government
5. release those arrested
6. higher salaries for working-class people
7. deletion of all branches of national companies
8. cancellation of waste collection
9. cancellation of toll roads for Kazakh vehicles
10. Increase in minimum pension
11. increase in family allowances
12.president kassym-zhomart tokayev meeting these political demands

Which does not sound particularly like a foreign plot but very, very domestic.

[Zanza]

Wait, why would they demand point 8? 

[Sheilbh]

Not fully clear and I wonder if that's a mistranslation

[Valmy]

Yeah surely wanting waste to just pile up all over the country is not what they are demanding. I presume a translation issue?

[Tamas]

Probably they want to cancel the fees for it

[mongers]

Probably they want to cancel the fees for it

My guess too,

[Sheilbh]

And the CSTO have announced that they'll be sending a "peacekeeping force" to Kazakhstan for a "limited period of time" - it feels likely that this is going to get very nasty now

Not least because the only reason I can think why the Kazakh government would request foreign support is they don't trust their own army or security forces, which I'd worry means very hard represssion is coming.

[Eddie Teach]

Not very nice.

[jimmy olsen]

And the CSTO have announced that they'll be sending a "peacekeeping force" to Kazakhstan for a "limited period of time" - it feels likely that this is going to get very nasty now

Not least because the only reason I can think why the Kazakh government would request foreign support is they don't trust their own army or security forces, which I'd worry means very hard represssion is coming.

Wonder if we'll see defections among them fighting the peacekeepers?

[Jacob]

I am shocked to learn that the founder of a neo-Nazi para-military group that intended to provide military training to members, carry out assassinations, and engage in terrorist activities fled to Russia once his group was infiltrated and arrests were being made.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/neo-nazi-group-infiltrator-the-base-1.6302804