The Thurston Mittens the 3rd Veep Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

Sure, with respect to Medicare and Medicaid Ryan's plan specifically limits the growth in spending to the inflation rate.  So with Medicare all you need to do is plug in CBO's population forecasts and you get Medicare/GDP and Medicaid/GDP with no muss and no fuss.

What you do *not* get is zeroed out residual discretionary spending to fit Ryan's spending/GDP target, as you suggested earlier.

You get about 3.5 percent, but only on the assumption (under the CBO's growth model) that GDP under the Ryan plan will end up 70 higher than under the baseline plan.

I'm not sure when the last time discretionary fed spending (including military) was below 3.5 percent because it falls way off the charts I have going back to WW2.  It is lunacy.  But even that 3.5 percent is only feasible with the "growth bonus" based on a Solow Growth Model that essentially gives big growth credits for cutting fiscal deficits.  That is, the CBO's growth model is already giving Ryan a free lunch equal to 70% of future GDP.  Thus, to hit the 3.5 percent, GDP growth would have to increase from a projected average of 2.2 percent a year to 3.4 percent a year.  If it doesn't, you get zeroed out.

Population above replacement rate does not create an increasing age profile.  It creates the opposite.

Depends on what happens in the future and what happens to life expectancy.  Point is, even after the Boomers are dead and gone (which is 40 years out or more) there still are plenty of people born subsequently that will be moving into retirement and barring breakdowns in medical science, will be living quite a bit longer than people live now.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm not sure when the last time discretionary fed spending (including military) was below 3.5 percent because it falls way off the charts I have going back to WW2.

You've convinced me.  Let's come up with a plan that does the job.

[DGuller]

Population above replacement rate does not create an increasing age profile.  It creates the opposite.

I don't see the connection between the two.  I'm no expert on this, so I may be wrong, but I think you're looking at the wrong derivative here.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't see the connection between the two.  I'm no expert on this, so I may be wrong, but I think you're looking at the wrong derivative here.

Ceteras paribus, a growth rate above replacement will lower the average age.  Each succeeding age cohort gets larger and larger.  The ones that are already born stay the same size until they start to die.

[Neil]

Unless they don't die, or live rather a long time before dying.

Our only hope is that obesity can defeat medical science.

[Eddie Teach]

Our only hope is that obesity can defeat medical science.

Until we can grow new organs without killing people to do it, there's a hard cap on human lifespans.

[Admiral Yi]

Unless they don't die, or live rather a long time before dying.

Ceteras paribus means everything else being the same.

[Neil]

Unless they don't die, or live rather a long time before dying.

Ceteras paribus means everything else being the same.

Yeah, but it's a meaningless statement, because the future is always changing.

[DGuller]

I don't see the connection between the two.  I'm no expert on this, so I may be wrong, but I think you're looking at the wrong derivative here.

Ceteras paribus, a growth rate above replacement will lower the average age.  Each succeeding age cohort gets larger and larger.  The ones that are already born stay the same size until they start to die.

I'm not sure about that.  What if your society has been right at replacement age for the last century, except for a period of ten years where there was a huge baby boom?  Wouldn't the average age keep increasing for some time, even after the growth returns to replacement level?

[The Minsky Moment]

You've convinced me.  Let's come up with a plan that does the job.

My plan would be taxation at a level sufficient to support long term federal expenditures at about 25% of GDP.  A tax take around 22-23 percent avergage long-term should do the job.  A reasonable conservative counter would be to get spending down to 22.5 and taxes to 20.   

[DGuller]

What about fraud, waste, and abuse?  Are you going to keep it?

[The Minsky Moment]

What about fraud, waste, and abuse?  Are you going to keep it?

I would privatize it but that might already have happened.

[DGuller]

What about fraud, waste, and abuse?  Are you going to keep it?

I would privatize it but that might already have happened.

[Martinus]

The Onion's take on it:

Admit It, I Scare The Ever-Loving Shit Out Of You, Don't I?

By Paul Ryan

When Mitt Romney selected me as his running mate, I knew the Democratic attack dogs would come out in full force. They would say I'm a right-wing ideologue. They would say my views on entitlement programs are far too radical. They would say putting me on the ticket immediately kills Mitt Romney's chances of becoming president because I'm a liability. But if we're being honest with each other—if we're able to put aside the talking points for a few minutes and say what we're all actually thinking and feeling—I believe we can acknowledge the real truth here.

I'm young, I'm handsome, I'm smart, and I'm articulate. And that scares the ever-loving shit out of you. You can pretend like you have this thing in the bag, but you know good goddamn well that this race just got real interesting, real fast.

It's okay to admit it. You're frightened to death of me. It might actually be healthy for you to face your fears now rather than later, when Mitt and I are leading by a few points in the polls and it looks like this thing might end badly for you. Face it: I'm not some catastrophe waiting to happen, like a Sarah Palin or a Dan Quayle. On the contrary, you have the exact opposite fear. I'm a solid, competent, some might say exceptional, politician.

Did you get nervous when you read that last sentence? Is it because you know in your heart of hearts that it's 100 percent true? Is it because, even if you strongly disagree with my beliefs on Medicare, Social Security, women's rights, and marriage equality, you know my talent as a speaker and my well-thought-out approach to these issues—no matter how radical and convoluted you find them—might just be enough to win over independent voters?

Do you get chills just thinking about how strong my appeal actually is?

I have another question for you: How scared are you that I can convince people I'm right? Because I'm good at it. No, I'm really good at it. You see, I know how to turn up the charm and charisma without putting people off. Then I back up what I'm saying with arguments that, when they come out of my mouth, sound completely accurate and well-reasoned. And I do it with such passion that people automatically recognize me as a man with deep convictions he will stand up for, no matter what.

The American people love that shit. They love it.

Passion, intellect, and a magnetic personality. Pretty damn intimidating combo, if I say so myself. You want to talk about polish? Man, I've got polish for miles. Oh, and by the way, I'll go ahead and say this next thing because, if we're being honest, why the hell not, right? In case you haven't noticed, I'm white. Hoo, brother, am I white.

Yup, you should be scared shitless of me, because guess who isn't? The people of Wisconsin. They love me. Republicans and Democrats there love me. Hell, I get Democrats to vote for me even if my policies make zero sense when it comes to their livelihoods. Do you know why? Because they like me. They like my story. Young, good-looking kid who pulled himself up by his bootstraps to make something of himself. Christ, I'm a storybook candidate. I balance out this ticket so well it's almost too perfect. The people of Ohio are going to think that. And seniors in Florida—the state we supposedly lost when Mitt picked me—won't be so scared as soon they know that my mother lives in Florida, and that all I want to do is reform the health care system so she can receive care that makes good fiscal sense.

Boy, I'm going to sell the shit out of that talking point. And I'm going to do a great job of it. Why? Because I'm Paul Ryan. That's what I do.

And if we're having trouble getting Pennsylvania on board, just wait until I absolutely wipe the floor with Joe Biden in the vice presidential debates. Don't think for a second that I don't know you're terrified of us facing off, because in the back of your mind you know it could be a bloodbath up there.

Well, that's 77 electoral votes, and by my math that means you can kiss your golden boy goodbye after four short years. All that promise. All that energy. All that potential. Gone in one November night.

I'm your worst fucking nightmare.

Oh, and by the way, don't even try to pretend you haven't imagined me being elected president one day.

I kinda agree. I don't think Romney could have chosen better.

[Barrister]

I dunno.  Ryan to me has a very Jack Kemp feel about him as Veep.

He's a long-time politician, connected to right-wing economic policies.  And I liked Jack Kep - a fair bit.  He's selected by a more centrist presidential candidate to prove his right-wing credentials.

But Jack Kemp didn't win Bob Dole the Whitehouse.  And I have mu doubts it'll work for Romney.