How can Afghanistan and Iraq maintain their own security?

[Phillip V]

The current and future massive expansion of Iraq and Afganistan's militaries and police forces is a good idea, but minus the U.S. how can that be sustained if their economies are not built up extensively either? The only reason why I fail to see how Iraq will do fine if we leave in a year or two is that building up an economy and institutions such as education, democratic government, healthcare, etc. take time.

Another concern of mine is that a built-up military/police in comparison to other less advanced sectors in those countries is a bad thing.

[Berkut]

At least Iraq could support a military that can manage its own security in theory.

Afghanistan is hopeless in that regard.

[Queequeg]

Afghanistan is hopeless in that regard.

If we hadn't gone into Iraq in the first place and had helped Afghanistan get out of the 7th Century BC it wouldn't be so hopeless.  They are not animals. 

[Berkut]

Has nothing to do with being animals, or Iraq, or what we have or have not done.

It is simple economics. They are a poor country in the best of times, and cannot afford anything like the number of men they need to keep armed to have any shot of keeping the peace.

Right now, there defense budget is something like 40% of their total government income, and the US and NATO want them to at least double their military and para-military forces. There is no way they can pay for that, probably not ever.

[Queequeg]

They have large amounts of natural resources and a pent-up demand for education and consumer products in the non-Talibanized (read non-Pashtun) areas.  If we'd just payed some more attention to the country and helped develop Pakistani infrastructure and ports (if the Pakistanis were not behaving like angry retarded children Gwadar would be a port on par with anything in India or China), Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia would be the world's non-African source of raw materials.   

[Queequeg]

40 years ago Afghanistan was not nearly as poor as it is today.  Nowhere even close.  You'd be surprised what being ravaged by Communists and the Taliban could do to a place; the USSR might as well have dropped neutron bombs on all the major urban centers. 

EDIT: Might as well as dropped neutron bombs on urban areas rather than wage the campaign they did, not in addition to.  The latter would be hyperbole. 

[Admiral Yi]

What natural resources are you talking about Squeelus?

[Norgy]

They have large amounts of natural resources and a pent-up demand for education and consumer products in the non-Talibanized (read non-Pashtun) areas.  If we'd just payed some more attention to the country and helped develop Pakistani infrastructure and ports (if the Pakistanis were not behaving like angry retarded children Gwadar would be a port on par with anything in India or China), Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia would be the world's non-African source of raw materials.

I think the "infrastructure" part is important. Geography and geology aren't very kind to the Afghan infrastructure opportunities. Maintenance alone would cost a fortune, which in turn would probably be at the expense of edumacation and public spending in general.

There's simply no easy way to provide Afghanistan with roads, railroads, broadband etc at low-low prices. Afghanistan really needs a central government, but topography and history dictates a much more decentralised approach, I would think.

Of course, the lack of infrastructure and a polity that at the best of times is inefficient make extracting the riches of Afghanistan economically unviable for the moment, unless those tasked with such endeavors also equipped a private army of 5-600.000 men.

[Berkut]

40 years ago Afghanistan was not nearly as poor as it is today.  Nowhere even close.  You'd be surprised what being ravaged by Communists and the Taliban could do to a place; the USSR might as well have dropped neutron bombs on all the major urban centers. 

It wasn't wealthy though.

The problem is that they are not just a little behind - they are decades behind. Even the most optomistic of projection do not have them capable of defending themselves in any kind of time frame shorter than a decade or more.

And what are all these natural resources you are talking about, this wealth waiting to be exploited?

[Norgy]

And what are all these natural resources you are talking about, this wealth waiting to be exploited?

Trophy wives. Like Ukraine's biggest export. 

[Queequeg]

Taken shamelessly from Wiki

Afghanistan is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, including extensive deposits of natural gas, petroleum, coal, marble, gold, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulfur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, precious and semi-precious stones. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that Afghanistan has as much as 36 trillion cubic feet (1.0×10^12 m3) of natural gas, 3.6 billion barrels (570×10^6 m3) of oil and condensate reserves.[11] According to a recent 2007 U.S. Geological Survey's assessment, it was again revealed that Afghanistan has significant amounts of undiscovered non-fuel mineral resources. Scientists also found indications of abundant deposits of colored stones and gemstones, including emerald, ruby, sapphire, garnet, lapis, kunzite, spinel, tourmaline and peridot.[12]

This area has produced a huge amount of the world's minerals since the time of the Indo-European invasion.  Central Asia has a lot of things going for it.  Its just that the soil can be harsh, and the land either so flat or so mountainous as to make raiding an extremely profitable, relatively easy way of life.

[Berkut]

They have large amounts of natural resources and a pent-up demand for education and consumer products in the non-Talibanized (read non-Pashtun) areas.

Yeah, going to be hard to spend the bulk of their national revenue on the military when that is the case. We will continue to subsidize their security for decades.

If we'd just payed some more attention to the country and helped develop Pakistani infrastructure and ports (if the Pakistanis were not behaving like angry retarded children Gwadar would be a port on par with anything in India or China), Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia would be the world's non-African source of raw materials.   

Gosh, if only we had not screwed everything up! Central Asia could be a paradise, like it was before we screwed it up!

[Queequeg]

I think the "infrastructure" part is important. Geography and geology aren't very kind to the Afghan infrastructure opportunities. Maintenance alone would cost a fortune, which in turn would probably be at the expense of edumacation and public spending in general.

There's simply no easy way to provide Afghanistan with roads, railroads, broadband etc at low-low prices. Afghanistan really needs a central government, but topography and history dictates a much more decentralised approach, I would think.

Of course, the lack of infrastructure and a polity that at the best of times is inefficient make extracting the riches of Afghanistan economically unviable for the moment, unless those tasked with such endeavors also equipped a private army of 5-600.000 men.

Agreed on all counts.  But I think there was a window in 2002 where we could have made an honest effort to do this, and would have seen significant progress on all fronts, enough for it to eventually become self sustaining I think.

[Queequeg]

Gosh, if only we had not screwed everything up! Central Asia could be a paradise, like it was before we screwed it up!

I think it is reasonably fair to say that Afghanistan's plight is not its own fault; the Soviets invaded, Pakistani-supported Ghazis poured in, took over a destroyed country and eventually we came in and forgot all about it on the blind road to Baghdad. 

Can't say the same for Pakistan.  That country has made some stupid, stupid, stupid decisions. 

[Ed Anger]

Afghanistan is hopeless in that regard.

If we hadn't gone into Iraq in the first place and had helped Afghanistan get out of the 7th Century BC it wouldn't be so hopeless.  They are not animals.

Yes they are. Just because Bactria wasn't a total basket case back in the day is not an indicator of future success.

Cut our losses, cluster bomb everybody brown.