How can Afghanistan and Iraq maintain their own security?

[Sheilbh]

Obviously Afghanistan is going to need money, training, and lots of economic help for some years, decades maybe.  Just as other nations have needed in similar circumstances. I kind of think it's worth the investment to give the Afghans a good chance at a better life, and to keep the nation out of the mess it's been in, with the kinds of extremists who would likely come to power.

It'll be for nothing if we don't somehow sort out Pakistan.  I think Afghanistan can succeed but it'll take a long, long time.  I think it's worth doing.  But if Pakistan's decline continues then I don't think anything we could do could work in Afghanistan.

And I've few ideas on stabilising Pakistan, I've not read any that sound plausible.  But hopefully some brights spark in some Chancellery somewhere has worked out some sort of plan

[Habbaku]

Afghans are the toughest motherfuckers in the world; they fucking charged Soviet tank columns on donkeyback; and they liked us!

You lust after the Croats first, now the Afghans?  You do realize that, while charging a tank on a donkey may sound heroic, it is not very intelligent, right?

You're the Lettow of the third-world hellholes.

[Queequeg]

Afghans are the toughest motherfuckers in the world; they fucking charged Soviet tank columns on donkeyback; and they liked us!

You lust after the Croats first, now the Afghans?  You do realize that, while charging a tank on a donkey may sound heroic, it is not very intelligent, right?

You're the Lettow of the third-world hellholes.

Croats?

They beat the Soviets, didn't they?  Our weapons and some of our training, but they did it.  Not even the Chechens did that. 

You don't find that impressive? 

And I don't think *all* Third World peoples are tough.  Look at the Georgians, or the Arabs, or the Azeris. 

[FunkMonk]

What role does Iran play in either country? It borders both hotspots, has considerable influence, and aspires to be a regional superpower. I imagine they see both countries as stepping stones to this aspiration, and with nuclear arms possibly a few years away they probably see time as on their side.

Edit: 

[Queequeg]

What role does Iran play in either country? It borders both hotspots, has considerable influence, and aspires to be a regional superpower. I imagine they see both countries as stepping stones to this aspiration, and with nuclear arms possibly a few years away they probably see time as on their side.

Regional superpower?

Iran's role is generally speaking a lot more constructive here than in Iraq; Iran nearly went to war with  the Taliban after they slaughtered some Iranian diplomats, and supported the (Sufi, Tajik/Iranian) Northern Alliance against the batshit Pashto Taliban. 

[Valmy]

Regional superpower?

Yeah that is kind of a contradiction in terms isn't it?

[FunkMonk]

What role does Iran play in either country? It borders both hotspots, has considerable influence, and aspires to be a regional superpower. I imagine they see both countries as stepping stones to this aspiration, and with nuclear arms possibly a few years away they probably see time as on their side.

Regional superpower?

Iran's role is generally speaking a lot more constructive here than in Iraq; Iran nearly went to war with  the Taliban after they slaughtered some Iranian diplomats, and supported the (Sufi, Tajik/Iranian) Northern Alliance against the batshit Pashto Taliban.

They opposed the Taliban in 2001. Do they still oppose them? If so, do they do it with the same fervor as before? Could they see the Taliban acting as a meatshield against the Americans? American victory in Afghan could mean increased American influence = bad for Iran. Taliban victory in Afghan is also probably bad for Iran. Is it in their best interests to let both sides go at it for years on end? How nuanced is Iranian foreign policy?

Or are they just batshit insane?

[Sheilbh]

They opposed the Taliban in 2001. Do they still oppose them? If so, do they do it with the same fervor as before? Could they see the Taliban acting as a meatshield against the Americans? American victory in Afghan could mean increased American influence = bad for Iran. Taliban victory in Afghan is also probably bad for Iran. Is it in their best interests to let both sides go at it for years on end? How nuanced is Iranian foreign policy?

The Iranians are still very anti-Taliban.  It's not often reported but chaos in Afghanistan directly affects Iran.  The border with Iraq is okay, there's little instability caused by what's happening in Iraq.  From what I understand there are bits of Eastern Iran that have pretty serious problems because of drug traffickers based in Afghanistan.

[Queequeg]

The Iranians are still very anti-Taliban.  It's not often reported but chaos in Afghanistan directly affects Iran.  The border with Iraq is okay, there's little instability caused by what's happening in Iraq.  From what I understand there are bits of Eastern Iran that have pretty serious problems because of drug traffickers based in Afghanistan.

Drugs are a huge problem in Iran.  All true. 

[Neil]

I find it amusing that the NYT asserts that a 'lack of military focus' in Afghanistan caused by the Iraq war is what allowed the Taliban to regroup.  As if the coalition troops in Afghanistan were distracted by the fact that there was another war, thousands of kilometres away.

I think the fact that they were able to find refuge, recruits, supplies and cash in Pakistan was a little more telling.

[FunkMonk]

They opposed the Taliban in 2001. Do they still oppose them? If so, do they do it with the same fervor as before? Could they see the Taliban acting as a meatshield against the Americans? American victory in Afghan could mean increased American influence = bad for Iran. Taliban victory in Afghan is also probably bad for Iran. Is it in their best interests to let both sides go at it for years on end? How nuanced is Iranian foreign policy?

The Iranians are still very anti-Taliban.  It's not often reported but chaos in Afghanistan directly affects Iran.  The border with Iraq is okay, there's little instability caused by what's happening in Iraq.  From what I understand there are bits of Eastern Iran that have pretty serious problems because of drug traffickers based in Afghanistan.

Interesting bit about the drugs. From what I read Iran serves as a major transport hub for Afghan opiates and the UN estimates that Iran has as many as 1.7 million opiate addicts.

[Berkut]

You just restated everything I said in the post you quoted as a refutation of me. 

You just lost all right to complain about arguing with me.

Yes but you DID post once there was no Taliban in 2002.  For that you shall suffer.

One moment of hyperbole doesn't excuse that kind of sloppiness.

Me: Its raining.
Berut: No, its not.
Me: Well, its drizzling.  There's water coming down from the sky.
Berkut: I GOT YOU YOU MOTHERFUCKER!  ITS DRIZZLING!  DRIZZLING ISN'T RAINING!  YOU FUCKING RETARD!

Nice try.

Why did you engage in this entire argument only to just say "Yeah, I actually agree with you about your original point..." then proceed to throw these little tantrums because I called you out on your "OMG, I know SO MUCH about this area! I am such an expert! And there was not Taliban in 2002!". Really, you start crowing about your "expertise", expect to get called on it when you saw something stunningly stupid like the Taliban was gone, and then follow it up by saying "Well, I didn't mean they were GONE, I meant they were in Pakistan, and by Pakistan, I actually mean they are in parts of Afghanistan, just not the parts that aren't near Pakistan, so by gone, what I really meant is that they were hiding out --- which of course is what you said to begin with..."

[Berkut]

They opposed the Taliban in 2001. Do they still oppose them? If so, do they do it with the same fervor as before? Could they see the Taliban acting as a meatshield against the Americans? American victory in Afghan could mean increased American influence = bad for Iran. Taliban victory in Afghan is also probably bad for Iran. Is it in their best interests to let both sides go at it for years on end? How nuanced is Iranian foreign policy?

The Iranians are still very anti-Taliban.  It's not often reported but chaos in Afghanistan directly affects Iran.  The border with Iraq is okay, there's little instability caused by what's happening in Iraq.  From what I understand there are bits of Eastern Iran that have pretty serious problems because of drug traffickers based in Afghanistan.

Interesting bit about the drugs. From what I read Iran serves as a major transport hub for Afghan opiates and the UN estimates that Iran has as many as 1.7 million opiate addicts.

Pfft, they are going to have a drug problem regardless. ANy kind of chaos that involves the US is gravy to them.

[Sheilbh]

Pfft, they are going to have a drug problem regardless. ANy kind of chaos that involves the US is gravy to them.

This isn't necessarily true.  They were hugely helpful in 2001 and offered help in Iraq.

[Queequeg]

Why did you engage in this entire argument only to just say "Yeah, I actually agree with you about your original point..." then proceed to throw these little tantrums because I called you out on your "OMG, I know SO MUCH about this area! I am such an expert! And there was not Taliban in 2002!"

Berkut, every poster here knows that I tend towards hyperbole.  But I think in absolute terms, the Taliban was closer to non-existence in 2002 than it was to its heights in 2001 or its current revival in 2009, especially within Afghanistan where it was largely contained to the border regions, and often the Pakistani side of the border regions. 

By your logic, if I were to say "there isn't a radical left insurgency in the United States when compared to the 1960s", that could be refuted by showing that a few Freshmen at Reed College watched a documentary about the Weathermen and wear Che Guevara T-Shirts.