Is the video game industry dying? Like Languish?

[CountDeMoney]

Is the Video Game Industry Dying?
By Chris Morris, CNBC

E3 is usually the videogame industry's big party of the year — a chance to celebrate its strengths and showcase the titles it expects to drive sales forward for the rest of the year.

But as the game makers gather for this year's event, a cloud hangs over the soiree. Retail sales are down 27 percent compared to this time in 2011. Mobile devices are stealing the spotlight from traditional consoles. And naysayers are openly questioning the long-term viability of the console industry.

Given the hard numbers, that's understandable, but there are a few other factors to consider before making such a declaration.

The first is the age of today's game machines. Microsoft's Xbox 360 made its debut in 2005 — and Sony's PlayStation 3 bowed the next year. In an industry that has traditionally swapped in new hardware every five years, that's a big gap — and it's one that is starting to affect sales.

"We've had an abnormally long console cycle and I think people are ready for something new," says Eric Handler, senior equity analyst at MKM Partners.

Investors are also comparing current sales numbers to the cycle's peak, back when the Wii was a must-have device that retailers couldn't keep on store shelves. Now that demand for Nintendo's system has effectively dried up, the numbers can't compete.

If not for the recession, those Wii owners might have kept the industry on a fairly even keel. But the longevity of the economic downturn, coupled with the rise of the smart phone and the app market with its cheap games, stole much of Nintendo's audience away.

"Gaming received a massive boom at the start of the cycle because of the Wii," says Handler. "Schools were buying Wiis. Nursing homes were buying Wiis. Everyone under the age of 95 was playing 'Wii Play.' It created this massive groundswell. I would say the hard-core gamer has been pretty constant [in his or her gaming habits], but the big shift has been among the casual players who have come into this space."

He also touched upon the impact the expanding mobile space has had on the industry.

"When the recession hit, you had this massive downdraft [and everyone] stopped buying Wii games," he said. "Then, you had the rise of the iPad and smartphones and suddenly the casual business changed from a $35 business to a $1, $3, $5 business."

At this year's E3, the videogame industry begins the march to what it hopes will be its new peak, with the introduction of the first next-generation system — the Wii U, which will be out before the end of the year.

At its pre-show press conference, Nintendo is expected to showcase the final version of the hardware and discuss launch details, such as big titles consumers can look forward to. (Don't expect to hear a launch date or price, though — the company will save that information to control the news cycle on another day.)

Sony and Microsoft have both said they have no plans to talk about their next-generation systems, which are expected in 2013. That's largely because both are hoping to get a final push from the current generation with a strong software lineup.

Microsoft will showcase "Halo 4" at this year's show — the beginning of a new trilogy for its most popular franchise — while Sony will showcase "PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale," a "Super Smash Bros"-like game featuring some of the best-known characters exclusive to the platform.

Third-party publishers are also hoping to take advantage of the large installed base of systems to showcase some of their biggest franchises. Ubisoft will center its focus on action games "Assassin's Creed III" and "Far Cry 3." Electronic Arts will showcase a new "Medal of Honor" game and graphical wunderkind "Crysis 3."

Most investors will be focused on Activision Blizzard, though. The company will give its first in-depth look at "Call of Duty: Black Ops II" at the show (likely at the start of Microsoft's press conference), which has already exceeded the early pre-order levels of its predecessors, thanks in part to its near-future setting.

Activision will also show off the next installment in its "Skylanders" series, which combines real-world toys with a videogame and was one of the 2011 holiday period's biggest surprise hits. (Collectors are paying up to $1,200 for rare figurines from the game on eBay.)

The biggest title on tap for next year, however, won't be at this year's E3 — and its publisher likely won't discuss it. "Grand Theft Auto V" is the game that could end "Call of Duty's" reign as the industry's top seller, but developer Rockstar Games traditionally shuns E3.

Take-Two Interactive Software has not announced a release date for the game, but in its most recent quarterly earnings, the company strongly hinted in its guidance that it expected the game to come out before the end of its fiscal year. Most analysts expect it in the first calendar quarter of next year.

Take-Two generally prefers to create its own news cycle for its most important franchise, as making any announcement at E3 risks dulling the impact (due to the cacophony of other gaming announcements).

Still, if you're looking for a grand finale to the current generation of consoles, there's really no safer choice than GTA.

[Ideologue]

Probably started happening around the time I stopped caring about video games, except for Halo and Street Fighter, because they had become these giant sprawling stupid things revolving principally around aimless wandering, which I get enough of in my real life.  Or they were post-2008 shooters, usually boring ugly cover-based abominations that don't understand what picking up a science fiction gun and shooting aliens in the face with it is supposed to be about.

while Sony will showcase "PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale," a "Super Smash Bros"-like game featuring some of the best-known characters exclusive to the platform.

LOL.  Name five.  Snake doesn't count.  I will accept Dante or Nero, but not both.

[Jaron]

I used to play Halo with Ide. The two of us made a team unstoppable.

[katmai]

I think the word you are looking for is unwinnable

[Jaron]

I think the word you are looking for is unwinnable

No, that's teaming with you in World of Tanks.

[sbr]

OH SNAP!

[katmai]

I think the word you are looking for is unwinnable

No, that's teaming with you in World of Tanks.

yeah because i'm having to carry you, and that ain't no easy feat.

[Ideologue]

I was pretty good at Halo 3.  Still am, actually.  But I never got my colonel, stuck as a strike commander for all time.  I blame Bungie's filthy metrics.

[sbr]

I loved the first Halo.  Enjoyed the second until about 3/4 of the way through the SP campaign, then I lost interest and never played it again.  Never played Halo 3.

I never played anything but single player in any of the game.

[Syt]

Related article:

http://www.brainygamer.com/the_brainy_gamer/2012/06/high-noon-for-shooters.html

For over a decade - beginning in 1949 and ending in the mid-1960s - Westerns ruled the small screen. In 1959, 26 Westerns aired each weak during prime-time. In March of that year, eight of the top ten shows were Westerns.

The same period was also the golden age of Hollywood Westerns (The Searchers, Shane, High Noon, Rio Bravo) with many of America's greatest filmmakers producing their best work in the genre: John Ford, Howard Hawks, Anthony Mann, William Wyler, among others.

But it didn't last. History rarely offers a precise road map, but it can sometimes point us in a useful direction. The decline of the Western - the causes of its near-demise, and its reemergence in other guises - are worth noting because I believe shooter games are on a similar trajectory. It will be 1959 at E3 next week, and we will find ourselves awash in barely distinguishable shooters. But it won't last. It can't last, and that's a good and necessary thing.

Westerns began to disappear in the late 1960s for reasons relevant to modern game developers: 1) Genre fatigue and homologous products; 2) High cost of production; 3) Public outcry over violence; 4) Narrow target audience.

Each of these factors apply to contemporary shooter games, but the most threatening is the mind-numbing sameness of these games. We've reached a saturation point where the dismissive cliché has become a valid claim: they all look the same. When a genre sustains itself by promoting minor tweaks as revolutionary features - and its hardcore fans claim ownership that typically resists change - death looms.

It's worth noting, however, that death doesn't necessarily mean disappearance. Gunsmoke, TV's longest-running prime-time drama, died somewhere around 1965...and ran for another decade. It's also worth noting that CBS received many letters from fans who opposed the series' transition to color in 1966, claiming it would ruin the show's rustic nature. Fanboys defending the realm are nothing new.

   

"We ask ourselves: if there wasn't anyone to shoot in the game, could it still be fun?" --Jason Vandenberghe, Narrative Director, Far Cry 3

Want more evidence shooter games are mired in similitude? Here are publisher-penned descriptions of key features contained in their games, all released or forthcoming this year. See if you can identify the games. (Names and titles are xx'd out)

   

• "QUAD-WIELDING CHAOS - Slash, grab, and throw objects and enemies...while simultaneously firing two weapons, adding a new dimension to the FPS category."


• "From automatics to handguns to rifles and explosives, XX wields (and dual-wields) a wide range of high-powered weaponry in both single player and multiplayer. XX provides devastating firepower for any and all situations that call for decisive and punishing action."


• "Alternate Aiming Perspectives — Players can choose the shooting style that suits them with the ability to alternate between first and third person views to best pinpoint enemies"


• "Pervasive Environmental Destruction - XX has been specifically designed to allow for maximum destructibility using the "Havok Destruction" module. Blast through the environments, target your enemies' cover blasting it to bits or even knock down overhead objects to crush the enemy below."


• "Blast your way in and utilize your military grade DART6 chip to breach enemies and the environment as you battle for market dominance and your life. Some takeovers are more hostile than others."


• "50 WEAPONS, ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES - Get unlimited access to the most advanced arsenal in the world, with over 50 weapons including highly customizable assault rifles, pistols, shotguns and submachine guns. Choose from a wide variety of grenades to suit your mission objectives and context."

 

"When I remember Half-Life 2 I don't remember just shooting things, I remember moments, like the escape from the boat, or crossing the bridge, or investigating the farm or invading the prison." --4A Games' Huw Beynon on the forthcoming Metro 2033: Last Light.1

So what happens when 1959 ends? Again, history could prove prophetic. The second wave of Western filmmakers (Sergio Leone, Sam Peckinpah, Clint Eastwood) turned our deep familiarity with the genre in on itself, addressing existential questions and examining the nature of violence. These films were radical departures from the Hollywood formula, not because they rejected the familiar settings or the guns or the hero/villain dichotomy, but because they made these the very subjects of their scrutiny.

This is precisely where Rockstar has tried, but mostly failed, to go with its recent genre-inspired games. Red Dead Redemption and L.A. Noire contain the stylistic trappings of their filmic influences, but little of the complexity. To be fair, the interactive dimension goes a long way toward bridging this gap, and RDR, especially, makes inhabiting John Marston feel more personal than any film could hope to do.

But it's Rockstar's Max Payne 3 that most painfully illustrates the shooter ball and chain. I've played many games I wish had skippable cutscenes. Max Payne 3 is the first to make me long for skippable action. Buried under hours of conventional designer-charted gunfights is a story with genuine noir sensibility, not merely cosmetic style. Rockstar jettisoned the campy (and easier to manage) noir-esque style of the previous Max Payne games in favor of something far more Robert Mitchum. Max takes weary self-loathing to new depths.

Consequently, it's heartbreaking to see a character as potentially compelling as Max dropped off at a "shithole" hotel in the 3rd Act and instructed to "clear the place out" as if it was essential to the narrative. It isn't, and I know it, Rockstar knows it...we all know it. The Imperial Palace Hotel is just another gunplay funhouse with waves of baddies for me to defeat. What a shame and what a waste.

Max Payne 3 is a game devastatingly at war with itself. All its smart, gutsy, genre-savvy ideas are wiped out in a bulletstorm of shooter game orthodoxy.

It's High Noon for shooters, or as a certain Minnesota cowboy would say, "It's not dark yet, but it's gettin' there."

[Tonitrus]

I blame the transition to mindless iCrap, walk-into-fountain games.

[Razgovory]

You know, for the first time in years I'm optimistic about the the PC market.  I have to admit, the kickstarter thing really impressed me.  I've never seen anything like that.  Don't really care about Console games.

[Razgovory]

Related article:

http://www.brainygamer.com/the_brainy_gamer/2012/06/high-noon-for-shooters.html

I read that, (and even commented on it).  It's not a good comparison.  Western is really a setting of several genre, not really a genre on it's own.  You can have Western action films, Western dramas, Western Musicals, Western mysteries etc.  A better comparison would be "Action films".  Since most violent action in the last several hundred years relies on guns, it's no surprise that violent action video games often involve firearms.  The Western may have declined in popularity but the action film has not.  Due to the peculiarity of video games compared to other forms of media it is difficult to make a game that doesn't involve action.  After all ,video games are primarily interactive.  For a video game to work it requires the player to constantly be doing stuff, and that means actions have to happen.  You would be hard pressed to sell a video game version of "Waiting for Godot", or something similar.  The need for constant action which is often violent action means that the most common tools of violent action (guns) are going to be well represented.

A better comparison to the "Westerns" in television might be the "WWII" setting in video games.

[Syt]

I do agree with the article, though, that generic shooters are reaching the point of oversaturation, similar to RTS in the style of C&C, WC, AoE before them.

[Josquius]

Sony and Microsoft have both said they have no plans to talk about their next-generation systems, which are expected in 2013. That's largely because both are hoping to get a final push from the current generation with a strong software lineup.

They're finally doing it eh?
And here I've been hearing they weren't going to since games aren't even fully using the PS3 and 360.

I've totally missed this games generation it being one that took place over my years of poverty.