Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[KRonn]

I'm not advocating for intervention but the US and Europe seem to have mainly bad options now having  waited so long, way too late perhaps. Russia and others like Iran supplying weapons and equipment for a long time to Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have a lot of fighters on the ground and have been very active and successful in pushing back the Rebels, making strong gains. Just seems that only arming the rebels may not be nearly enough now, given that the Govt. forces seem to have been heavily reinforced and reequipped.

Given that so many radical type groups are part of the rebels, I'm not so sure I want to see Assad go now anyway.

[jimmy olsen]

This UN report announcing that at least 92,000 have been killed in Syria has some interesting detail. It's built on a database of reports from a variety of sources, one of which the pro-rebel Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has perhaps the most detailed certainly the most oft quoted source in UK news outlets.
They report an interesting pattern, the largest group of dead are government/regime forces, next come rebels and third civilian deaths.

My concern, as I mentioned a while back, is this seems atypical for a modern civil war, my concern is as violence increases, civilian deaths will proportionally rise, especially if the ethnic/confessional elements of the conflict increases.

Well isn't it likely that these preliminary results are skewed this way because armies keep track of their soldiers? There are likely a large number of civilians who have been killed that have not yet been counted.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm not advocating for intervention but the US and Europe seem to have mainly bad options now having  waited so long, way too late perhaps. Russia and others like Iran supplying weapons and equipment for a long time to Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have a lot of fighters on the ground and have been very active and successful in pushing back the Rebels, making strong gains. Just seems that only arming the rebels may not be nearly enough now, given that the Govt. forces seem to have been heavily reinforced and reequipped.

Now see, this is what'll be refreshing about it;  getting back to a good, old fashioned proxy war backed by the full faith and credit of US ordnance.  And a proxy war with Russia AND Iran, to boot?  How can we say no now?

Given that so many radical type groups are part of the rebels, I'm not so sure I want to see Assad go now anyway.

That's because, regardless of what we do, you already know how this is going to turn out.

[mongers]

This UN report announcing that at least 92,000 have been killed in Syria has some interesting detail. It's built on a database of reports from a variety of sources, one of which the pro-rebel Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has perhaps the most detailed certainly the most oft quoted source in UK news outlets.
They report an interesting pattern, the largest group of dead are government/regime forces, next come rebels and third civilian deaths.

My concern, as I mentioned a while back, is this seems atypical for a modern civil war, my concern is as violence increases, civilian deaths will proportionally rise, especially if the ethnic/confessional elements of the conflict increases.

Well isn't it likely that these preliminary results are skewed this way because armies keep track of their soldiers? There are likely a large number of civilians who have been killed that have not yet been counted.

Here's a for instance of how the SOHR reports the daily violence, it's the latest one on their website here:

http://syriahr.com/en/

http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&nid=694&Itemid=2&task=displaynews

The dead: 44 civilians (including 4 children), 76 rebels, 32 unidentified rebels, 108 regular forces, 1 defected officer.

By province:
Der'a (12 rebels, 10 civilians). 6 civilians from the same family, including a woman, were killed by bombardment on the village of Ma'riya, which lies by the Jordanian border and by the Occupied parts of the Syrian Golan. 1 child was killed by the bombardment on the town of Tafas.

Latakia (17 rebels). All, including a commander, were killed by clashes with regime forces in the villages of Jabal al-Turkman.

Homs (8 rebels, 6 civilians). The bodies of 3 unidentified men were found in the al-Assi river, by the towns of al-Dar al-Kabira and Teir Ma'ala.

Hama (5 rebels, 7 civilians).

Aleppo (6 rebels, 4 civilians). A child was killed by the bombardment on the city of Manbaj. 1 man from the town of al-Sfeira was tortured to death after being detained by regime forces.

Reef Dimashq (2 rebels, 10 civilians). 8 civilians including a woman and a child were killed bombardment on the cities and towns of Douma, Erbin, Zabadani and Sayyeda Zeinab. a man from Zabadani was tortured to death after being detained by regime forces.

Deir Ezzour (12 rebels, 1 man). 4 were killed by clashes by the 113th regiment. 8 were killed by rockets falling on the Salhiyya area, on the edges of Deir Ezzour city.

Damascus (8 rebels, 5 civilians). A child was killed by the bombardment on the Jobar neighbourhood. A media activist and 4 rebels were killed by the clashes and bombardment on the Hajar al-Aswad neighbourhood.

Idlib province (5 rebels, 1 man). the body of an unidentified man was found near the town of Jarjanaz.

Raqqah (1 rebel). Killed by clashes in Raqqah city.

----

A defected captain, who became a rebel commander, was killed by clashes in Reef Der'a.

108 members of the regular forces, including 6 officers, and the national defence forces were killed by clashes, bombardment, summary executions, and explosive attacks: 38 in Aleppo, 20 in Homs, 17 in Der'a, 14 in Latakia, 7 in Hama, 8 in Raqqah, 2 in Deir Ezzour, 2 in Damascus and Reef Dimashq.

32 still unidentified rebels were killed by clashes and bombardment in the Hasakah, Aleppo, Der'a, Created On  2013-03-04
Hama, Homs and Latakia provinces.

Make of that what you will, but to me it doesn't indicated the large number of civilians that will get slaughter once a fully fledged ethnic/confessional war gets under-way. 

[mongers]

Interesting tv news report about a 'battalion' of western Jihadist fighters in Syria, concentrating on a British, Swedish and Canadian.
Worth viewing:

http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-war-rebels-jihadi-ibrahim-al-mazwagi

[Tonitrus]

It'd be nice for both sides to lose.

[Razgovory]

It'd be nice for both sides to lose.

Yeah, totally.  Fuck'em.  We come bringing democracy and cable TV and are greeted with bombs.

[Phillip V]

Almost scathing article by New York Times' standards.

Heavy Pressure Led to Decision by Obama on Syrian Arms

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/15/us/politics/pressure-led-to-obamas-decision-on-syrian-arms.html

For two years, President Obama has resisted being drawn deeper into the civil war in Syria. It was a miserable problem, he told aides, and not one he thought he could solve. At most, it could be managed. And besides, he wanted to be remembered for getting out of Middle East wars, not embarking on new ones.

So when Mr. Obama agreed this week for the first time to send small arms and ammunition to Syrian rebel forces, he had to be almost dragged into the decision under pressure from advisers, critics and even Bill Clinton. Coming so late into the conflict, Mr. Obama expressed no confidence it would change the outcome, but privately expressed hope it might buy time to bring about a negotiated settlement.

His ambivalence about the decision seemed evident even in the way it was announced. Mr. Obama left it to a deputy national security adviser, Benjamin J. Rhodes, to declare Thursday evening that the president's "red line" on chemical weapons had been crossed and that support to the opposition would be increased. At the time, Mr. Obama was addressing a gay pride event in the East Room. On Friday, as Mr. Rhodes was again dispatched to defend the move at a briefing, the president was hosting a Father's Day luncheon in the State Dining Room.

[Tamas]

Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

won't take 10 years for that to happen.

[Viking]

Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

Small arms are not the problem. Guided munitions are. Giving the rebels 100,000 AK-47s will not be a serious issue. There are already more than enough of those lying about. Giving them 5,000,000 rounds of 7.62 mm short ammo will be of use. Provided all that gets use this shouldn't be an issue.

I worry about giving them anti tank and anti aircraft missiles as well as guidance equipment for mortars. Remember that keeping this stuff in working order takes quite a bit of money and trained manpower.

The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.

[CountDeMoney]

The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.

Actually, the most useful thing we can do is park the Nimitz or the Eisenhower off the coast and enforce a no-flight zone, degrade Syrian government armor and interdict Iranian military supplies landing in Syria and coming through Iraq.  That would even things out on the ground.

[Viking]

The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.

Actually, the most useful thing we can do is park the Nimitz or the Eisenhower off the coast and enforce a no-flight zone, degrade Syrian government armor and interdict Iranian military supplies landing in Syria and coming through Iraq.  That would even things out on the ground.

give /= do

I was expecting a drone campaign.

[CountDeMoney]

give /= do

I'd rather not give them anything.

I was expecting a drone campaign.

Not enough ordnance involved to be effective.

[derspiess]

But if we give them guns we can control them & they won't radicalize.