Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[DGuller]

not sure what you mean, it is pretty easy in their case: they cannot really have the Sec. Council declare that it is okay and support-worthy for muslim tribes to rebel against their overlords. Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

Not to mention that they don't want to set a precedent that a government mass-murdering its own people is not OK.

[CountDeMoney]

Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

Lost weapons sales is a very poor excuse.

[derspiess]

LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.

not sure what you mean, it is pretty easy in their case: they cannot really have the Sec. Council declare that it is okay and support-worthy for muslim tribes to rebel against their overlords. Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

We may debate the relevance of precedence in this case, but I think this is the main reason for them being an ass over this.
And it's old reflexes as well. Just think 1849, when the Hungarians officially threw the Habsburgs out - we were 34 years after Napoleon yet the Russkies couldn't allow this because they had millions of Polacks to oppress. So they moved in and crushed the Magyars.

I'm not quite sure I buy that as their motivation in this instance, but anyway I guess I'm thinking more big picture.  Specifically in Russia's case, they tend to alienate themselves from the West and go after some pretty low-tier allies/trading partners/client states.  I know some of that is inertia from the Cold War, but it would serve them well to step back and take a rational look at what is in their actual long-term national interest. 

Being friends with Cuba, Syria, Venezuela, North Korea, etc. might result in some small-scale short-term economic benefits and it's always fun for them to piss off the US in doing so, but it's not going to help much in the long run.

[derspiess]

Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

[Viking]

We'd be better off with a Bosnia style resolution. Give weapons, training and intel to anti-assad forces on the grounds that assad is anti-west. Then bomb the shit out of any assad heavy equipment or large activity.

If only to give the message that this is what happens to tyrants that fuck with the west.

[CountDeMoney]

Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

It'd be a piece of cake.

Let somebody else clean up the post-party mess.  The Euros would be all into it, especially the French.

[Syt]

LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

It's win-win. Russia/China get to pose as viable friends for dictators everywhere who won't let the West interfere when they need to kill their populace, maybe getting some clout in those areas. The West gets to take the moral high ground without having to do much.

[frunk]

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

If it was as relatively cheap an intervention as Libya I think it would be a no brainer.  I don't see it being even close to that, particularly if Russia gets more actively involved.

Libya was easy because Qaddafi didn't have any friends to back him up.

[Syt]

Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

You don't want to get into . . . .



Syria's trouble?

[CountDeMoney]

 

[derspiess]

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

If it was as relatively cheap an intervention as Libya I think it would be a no brainer.  I don't see it being even close to that, particularly if Russia gets more actively involved.

Libya was easy because Qaddafi didn't have any friends to back him up.

Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.

[derspiess]

It'd be a piece of cake.

I didn't say it would be that hard, at least not the toppling Assad part. 

Let somebody else clean up the post-party mess.  The Euros would be all into it, especially the French.

We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.

[garbon]

We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.

We're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so who cares about that?

[frunk]

Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.

Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

[Barrister]

Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.

Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too).