Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Darth Wagtaros]

Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?

The Saudis are already openly arming his opposition he couldn't crush even when they weren't openly armed. He is done, lost, the question is time it will take.
Unless he ignites a regional fire, drags the Turks or whoever willing in, then probably shell Israel or something.

War with Turkey might get him support from the Kurds. 

[CountDeMoney]

Stop warfapping over Syria.  Ain't shit going to happen.

[jimmy olsen]

Rats are abandoning ship

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/25/12395466-report-syrian-general-dozens-of-other-soldiers-defect-to-turkey?lite

Report: Syrian general, dozens of other soldiers defect to Turkey
By msnbc.com news services

ANKARA, Turkey -- Dozens of members of Syria's military defected to Turkey overnight with their families, a Turkish official said Monday, at a time of heightened tensions between the two countries over Syria's downing of a Turkish military plane.

The state-run Anadolu news agency said 33 soldiers crossed into Turkey overnight and the group — 224 people in all — included a general and two colonels.

A government official, however, said the group included three colonels and there was no general among them. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government rules, did not know the overall number of defectors and the two accounts could not immediately be reconciled.

The defections come three days after Syria shot down a Turkish aircraft it said had violated its airspace, further fraying relations between the two countries that were once allies.

Turkey has summoned a NATO meeting for Tuesday to agree a response to the downing of its military reconnaissance jet in what it says was an attack without warning. NATO's founding treaty allows an ally to request consultations whenever it feels its security is threatened.

Turkey said the plane had unintentionally strayed into Syria's airspace, but was inside international airspace when it was brought down. It has insisted the jet was on a training flight to test Turkey's radar capabilities and was not spying on Syria.

Turkey seeks NATO action over Syria military jet downing

Turkey's cabinet was due to meet on Monday to discuss Friday's attack, which lent a more menacing international dimension to the 16-month-old uprising against President Bashar Assad. Britain said it could press for more serious action at the United Nations Security Council.

Defectors affiliated with the Free Syrian Army and based in Turkey are known to collect food and other supplies to deliver to comrades on smuggling routes.

The government official said another group of some 60 army defectors had also crossed into Turkey recently. 
...

[Darth Wagtaros]

Clearly.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile, Russia gives an other try to their Syrian arms shipment, reinsuring it under a Russian flag.

[Tonitrus]

Looks like Turkey might invoke Article 5...and NATO will probably ignore it. 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jPElkCt0Wqa93FHd0ztpv1TukPGw?docId=555a88e64d474dd58a10d9ce29ed3a38

Might be a good excuse for them to ditch NATO and start reestablishing the Ottoman Empire. 

[Neil]

Article 5 doesn't apply.  The plane was downed in Asia.

[Tonitrus]

Article 5 doesn't apply.  The plane was downed in Asia.

Nice try, but Article 6(1) clarifies 5 to include the relevant area of contention. 

Article 6 (1)

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

- on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

- on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

[Neil]

Shit.  The Med fucks everything up.

Oh well.  They still have leeway in terms of their response.

[citizen k]

BEIRUT (Reuters) - State forces and rebels were locked in heavy fighting in several areas outside Damascus on Tuesday, activists said, in the worst violence to hit the suburbs of the Syrian capital since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began 16 months ago.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy fighting near the Republican Guard headquarters in Qudsiya, and in the suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou' Dumar, just 9 km (6 miles) outside Damascus.

Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armoured vehicles were also out on the streets of the suburbs and some activists reported that one tank had been blown up.

The British-based Observatory, which has a network of activists across Syria, said security forces and armoured vehicles stormed the neighborhood of Barzeh, an opposition toehold inside Damascus, and there were sounds of heavy gunfire.

The revolt against Assad's rule has become increasingly violent in response to an army crackdown. Fighting is now reported regularly in Damascus, once considered a bastion of Assad support.

This citizen journalism image provided by Shaam News Network SNN and taken on Thursday, June 21, 2012, purports to show a general view of a damaged street in the Khaldiyeh neighborhood of Homs province, central Syria. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network, SNN)

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the Syrians have opened fire on another Turkish plane

I thought the NATO meeting was under Article 4 and was largely to, publicly, remind the Syrians that Turkey's part of NATO.  It didn't seem to work.

[Tamas]

Erdogan said that they had 5 incursions from Syrian helicopters recently which they didn't react to, but from now on will consider any approach of their border by syrian forces as a threat

[Sheilbh]

Erdogan said that they had 5 incursions from Syrian helicopters recently which they didn't react to, but from now on will consider any approach of their border by syrian forces as a threat

Rasmussen, international politics most elegant man, was asked about the downing of Turkish planes and said 'it won't happen again'.  Also said he doesn't expect any more escalation along the border.

[DGuller]

Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?

[Admiral Yi]

Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?

It's utterly incomprehensible to me.

What would make more sense is if Turkey were trying to manufacter an international incident.