Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[CountDeMoney]

So the Turks acknowledged that the Syrians were right to shoot down their plane?

Dude, it was a Turk pilot.  He was probably trying to run up the meter taking the long way back to the airport.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

this isn't an ethnic or even sectarian civil war. 

it'll be one soon enough.

[Tonitrus]

this isn't an ethnic or even sectarian civil war. 

it'll be one soon enough.

I thought it there was a huge Alawi/Sunni divide factor in this conflict?  That is most definitely sectarian.

[Sheilbh]

I thought it there was a huge Alawi/Sunni divide factor in this conflict?  That is most definitely sectarian.

There's a divide.  It's not clear how much.  Both sides have an interest in minimising it.  Even so I don't think there's equivalence to the collapse of Yugoslavia because ethnicity was the dominant factor there, as Yi said 'get artillery, kill Serbs'.  I think this would need to move to a Lebanese style collapse where sectarianism is the motivation for violence to be at a similar point, right now it's still 'get artillery, kill other Syrians'.

It could happen of course.

it'll be one soon enough.

You could be right.  But that would also be true at any point in the past year.

[mongers]

It's worth noting that a lot of the opposition is still peaceful, they want to avoid conflict because there's more of a moral parity in a civil war.  Even so, oh dear

Saudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army
Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition
Martin Chulov in Beirut, Ewen MacAskill in Washington, John Densky in Idlib province
guardian.co.uk, Friday 22 June 2012 18.03 BST

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.
.....

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."

It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ? 

[Tonitrus]

I thought Saudi Arabia has been nervous over Iran and their nuclear ambitions, so it could be as simple as trying to help topple an Iranian ally in order to further isolate them.  Which is probably what we're doing, too. 

[Admiral Yi]

It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ? 

You're right.  Much better to do nothing. 

[Sheilbh]

It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ? 

You're right.  Much better to do nothing. 

Basically.  Or, more impressively, try and isolate the conflict.

[derspiess]

So the Turks acknowledged that the Syrians were right to shoot down their plane?

Dude, it was a Turk pilot.  He was probably trying to run up the meter taking the long way back to the airport.

Times like this I wish Languish had a "like" button.

[Tamas]

hm, looks like there will be a NATO session over this on Tuesday.

Turkesy is saying that while their plane did violate Syrian airspace briefly, it already left and was over international waters when it was shot down without warning, and the Syrians refuse to apologize.

Is this: the shooting of Franz Ferdinand?

[jimmy olsen]

hm, looks like there will be a NATO session over this on Tuesday.

Turkesy is saying that while their plane did violate Syrian airspace briefly, it already left and was over international waters when it was shot down without warning, and the Syrians refuse to apologize.

Is this: the shooting of Franz Ferdinand?

How could it be? Even if the Turks invaded Syria, it's not like the Russians would launch an air war against Turkey or anything like that. Turkey is not Georgia, the Turks could probably hold their own by themselves, let alone with NATO help.

[jimmy olsen]

Wow, talk about a doubling down on a losing hand.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-rescue-plane-also-attacked-by-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=23957&NewsCatID=338

Monday,June 25 2012, Your time is 오후 1:57:30
Turkish rescue plane also attacked by Syria

ANKARA - Hürriyet Daily News
Al-Assad forces fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane which rushed into Syrian airspace to locate the downed Turkish jet and its two missing pilots, Western diplomats reveal to Hürriyet Daily News

Syrian security forces fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane which rushed into Syrian airspace to locate the downed Turkish F4 jet and its two missing pilots June 22, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned from Western diplomatic sources.

"[In addition to] what we have seen in the media, we have been informed that Syrian forces opened fire on another Turkish plane [which had come to the region] as part of the search and rescue operation," sources told the Daily News on the condition of anonymity.

This information was shared with the ambassadors and defense attachés of the Arab League, European Union and NATO countries during a briefing at the Foreign Ministry yesterday. The Turkish search and rescue plane immediately left Syrian airspace after the shots. Local eyewitnesses reported a second plane leaving the same region over the Mediterranean Sea the afternoon of June 22, which could possibly be this Turkish search and rescue plane. Amid sound and fury over the shooting down of the Turkish jet, there was also another row between Turkey and Syria on the coordination of the search and rescue operation. The Syrian side offered to conduct a joint operation but attached certain conditions.

One of the conditions was that Syria wanted to seize the Turkish jet and take the Turkish pilots for the completion of necessary procedures as they had been in Syrian territorial waters. The Turkish side strongly rejected the idea and informed Syrian forces that Turkey would carry out its own search and rescue operations and would not leave its pilots and jet in the hands of Syria.

For this reason Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu denied that there was a joint search and rescue operation with Syria in his remarks yesterday. "This cannot be described as a joint operation. We are in coordination with the Syrians as this operation is being carried out in their territorial waters," Davutoğlu said. The search and rescue operation is expected to end tomorrow.

In the same briefing, Turkey told foreign ambassadors that Syrian air forces had violated the Turkish border five times in recent months but had not been intercepted as these had not been considered "hostile" moves. The Turkish side implemented rules of engagement in these cases but did not respond to them in the way Syria did to the Turkish jet.

[Tamas]

Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

[DontSayBanana]

Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?

[Tamas]

Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?

The Saudis are already openly arming his opposition he couldn't crush even when they weren't openly armed. He is done, lost, the question is time it will take.
Unless he ignites a regional fire, drags the Turks or whoever willing in, then probably shell Israel or something.