ALBERTA: Provincial Elections!

[Neil]

so what do you think happened Beeb? People who said they were going to vote Wildrose changed their minds? Or were formerly Liberal voters scared of Wildrose and voted for the safe "enemy we know"?

Well, both.  Wildrose was polling higher than they got, so people did reconsider.  But the Liberal vote also dropped substantially - and you have to think that was strategic voting in favour of the PCs.

Don't forget the huge undecided vote.

As for Liberal voters, why wouldn't they vote PC?  Redford is a Liberal.  Still, the complete corruption of the PCs seems preferable to the dangerous ideas of the Wildrose.  I just hope that this win doesn't embolden them to become even more corrupt.  Fortunately, Alberta is a strong province and easy to govern.  The oil money means that we can probably afford a term or two of Redford's centre-left policies.

The only thing that makes me sad about this whole thing is the victory for the teachers union.  Even so, in real life the bad guys sometimes win through sneakiness.

Bah - undecided voters are non-voters.

Are you sure?  I'm not so sure.

[Oexmelin]

Barely 50% turnout.

[Barrister]

Barely 50% turnout.

That's disappointing (though at least an increase from last time).

[Oexmelin]

I'd say it is much more than disappointing: it is cause for concern if it barely pushes past 50% in an actually contested election (as opposed to the routine of reelection of the PC).

[Barrister]

I think this reminds me of John Major's election win in 1990(?) - new leader of a long-governing and somewhat tired party, goes into election night with pollsters predicting an opposition victory, only for voters to pull back from an opposition seen as just a bit too radical and reward another mandate.

[Sheilbh]

I think this reminds me of John Major's election win in 1990(?) - new leader of a long-governing and somewhat tired party, goes into election night with pollsters predicting an opposition victory, only for voters to pull back from an opposition seen as just a bit too radical and reward another mandate.

That's what I thought reading it.  Worth saying that I think Labour are generally glad they lost that elections and the Tories regret winning it.

[Barrister]

I think this reminds me of John Major's election win in 1990(?) - new leader of a long-governing and somewhat tired party, goes into election night with pollsters predicting an opposition victory, only for voters to pull back from an opposition seen as just a bit too radical and reward another mandate.

That's what I thought reading it.  Worth saying that I think Labour are generally glad they lost that elections and the Tories regret winning it.

Well yes, that's the point of that comparison.

It's worth noting that Wildrose was only formed in 2007, and took only 7% of the vote (and zero seats) in the 2008 election.  They have gained in support, with one by-election victory and had three PC MLAs cross the floor to join them, but this really is an untested political party.

Mind you there is also the counter-example of the New Brunswick Confederation of Regions Party.  Based on dissatisfaction with the established parties it came out of nowhere to become the official opposition in 1991 - but once in legislature showed it did not have any real maturity or stability and quickly collapsed.

[Neil]

Or the ADQ in Quebec.

[Barrister]

Or the ADQ in Quebec.

Also good example.

You could definitely see echoes of the former Reform / PC split - I even recognized a few names of Wildrose candidates as fellow travellers from my time in Reform.  There's no shortage of experienced political help for a right-wing party in Alberta - if they choose to take it.

[Jacob]

So while the BC Liberals are really Conservative, the Alberta Conservative are really Liberals? I mean, the teachers' union?

[Barrister]

So while the BC Liberals are really Conservative, the Alberta Conservative are really Liberals? I mean, the teachers' union?

The Alberta PCs seem to be morphing (in terms of both membership and policy) into the Liberals.  In 4-5 years the transformation may be complete.

But yeah, provincial politics can be a wild ride.

[Neil]

Either way, the province was doomed.  Women make terrible leaders.

[Barrister]

Either way, the province was doomed.  Women make terrible leaders.

Margaret Thatcher.

[Neil]

Either way, the province was doomed.  Women make terrible leaders.

Margaret Thatcher.

Exception that proves the rule.

Besides, Thatcher was a chemist.  Redford was a human rights lawyer and Smith a journalist/pundit.  Thatcher had a brain in her head.  Lawyers and pundits have no place in government.

[Barrister]

Either way, the province was doomed.  Women make terrible leaders.

Margaret Thatcher.

Exception that proves the rule.

Besides, Thatcher was a chemist.  Redford was a human rights lawyer and Smith a journalist/pundit.  Thatcher had a brain in her head.  Lawyers and pundits have no place in government.