Chinese insider: China playing, and winning, zero-sum game with US

[derspiess]

Yuck.  Taiwan's rather a different situation than HK.  I'd imagine your best play would be disastrous for the Taiwanese.

Yeah?  And why is that?

As Seedy mentioned, they've matured into their own state and have shown that they are better off living independently of the mainland (not to mention that we are also better off for them being independent).  What you speak of is frankly a surrender. 

And the thought of the PLA getting their hands on all that Western equipment makes me want to vomit.

[Valmy]

As Seedy mentioned, they've matured into their own state and have shown that they are better off living independently of the mainland (not to mention that we are also better off for them being independent).  What you speak of is frankly a surrender.

I was thinking more on the lines of a compromise of some sort that would leave Taiwan able to govern itself as it has.  A negotiated solution.  Is there any alternative besides complete independence not a surrender in your mind?

[LaCroix]

The Chinese Empire only ruled Taiwan since 1700 or so.  Hundreds of years here being literally two hundred years.  The only Chinese Government who has controlled Taiwan since then still control it today.

roughly 1680ish iirc until.. 1895. i knew the time frame when i said hundreds of years. the united states has owned hawaii for less than that, yet i think many would consider it to be an integral part of the country. that another nation occupied taiwan for.. what, fifty years? doesn't really mean anything at all

I guess I fail to see the deep historical claim as some sort of integral part of China.

because both governments are china; there is only one china, and the winners of the civil war, the group in charge of around 98% of its population, has more legitimacy than the other. that losers from a civil war still remain in control over a territory should not somehow make it not chinese

Since we're doing Martiesque analogies, a better one would be if the US claimed rulership of Britain because they were now the true government of the English-speaking world.

that's not what i'm saying at all. i have not brought language into this discussion. that both use the same language means nothing, for obvious reasons

It's not ludicrous to consider Taiwan part of China. Taiwan is part of China. It is ludicrous to assume that means the PRC has a claim to it. The RoC at least has a historical claim to the mainland for whatever a historical claim is worth. The PRC doesn't even have that on Taiwan.

PRC is china, and if it collapses and another government forms in its wake--one that controls the mainland--then that government will also be china

[CountDeMoney]

Hey Money, I'm curious about the cyber attacks and thefts and so on... obviously it's going on on a big scale.

What could be done by companies to protect themselves? What could the US do to protect their companies?

Funding would help.  Not every company has the money to do it themselves.   And education, because some companies are their own worst enemies about it.  Spending money on national security doesn't increase shareholder value.

That's where regulatory enforcement comes in.  That's what NERC has been doing with the energy sector for the last several years.  Don't want to spend the money protecting your assets, which happen to be important to the rest of the country?  Fine; you'll pay through the regulatory nose.

DHS has begun reaching out to certain sectors involving the supply chain regarding technology, because so much firmware is coming from overseas.

Universities are the worst, though.  No real protection for intellectual property at all.  Academia simply doesn't believe in it.  Out to lunch.

[Valmy]

roughly 1680ish iirc until.. 1895. i knew the time frame when i said hundreds of years. the united states has owned hawaii for less than that, yet i think many would consider it to be an integral part of the country. that another nation occupied taiwan for.. what, fifty years? doesn't really mean anything at all

The United States has controlled lots of territories for less than that.  If Hawaii was governed by a popularly supported government for 50 years I would think that would mean something very significant and I would think any attempt to recover our integral territory or whatever to be act of aggression.  But maybe you disagree.  Spain controlled Cuba for twice as long as China controlled Taiwan perhaps they would be justified in invading?

because both governments are china; there is only one china, and the winners of the civil war, the group in charge of around 98% of its population, has more legitimacy than the other. that losers from a civil war still remain in control over a territory should not somehow make it not chinese

But that is not a historical claim that is based on present circumstances.  And I guess I fail to see how sharing an ethnicity with another political entity gives that entity a historical right to seize control over you.

[derspiess]

I was thinking more on the lines of a compromise of some sort that would leave Taiwan able to govern itself as it has.  A negotiated solution.

I really can't see the PRC going for that.

[CountDeMoney]

Here's the truth about Chinese industrial espionage - it is rampant.  And it turns out that the biggest method for gathering information is not cyber penetration from the outside but infiltrating moles into US companies who walk at the doors with USB drives and file folders.  The old fashioned way.  It further turns out that while this is indeed a problem, it is not as significant as one might think, because most Chinese companies don't have the capability to take blueprints and raw data and convert to advanced proprietary production techniques without extensive training and highly skilled personnel.  Thus, the principal way Chinese companies have succeeded in making actual use of advanced Western technology and methods is by dangling the prospect (mirage?) of the vast Chinese market in front of growth-hungry Western companies and convincing them voluntarily not only to transfer over technology, but to spend years training Chinese personnel on how to make use of it.  The exploitation of Japanese bullet train technology being a classic example.

We fire people over possession of USB drives.  But I think we're the exception.

The Chinese ability to acquire information is also tremendously low tech, but it works.  And speaking from my own personal experience at <insert major international science and medical institution here>, they're doing it the old-fashioned way: with people.  If it's not nailed down, it's uploaded.

I'd see dozens of PRC passports a month at <insert major international science and medical institution here>, and guess what?  The simple fact is that none of them were going there to become better trauma surgeons, or pediatricians or anesthesiologists.  The PRC students are all going there for the techie stuff in the three realms:  pharmacology, biomedical engineering and genetic research.  Anything that has a technological base that can impact commerce and competitiveness.  Anything that had compartmental knowledge, that could conceivably be used in other industries back home. 

And when we'd catch them uploading gigabytes in the middle of the night from computers in the Billing Department, something's not kosher.

Of the several incidents of unauthorized computer use on campus we'd receive a month--the ones departments even bothered reporting--they weren't involving Dutch students, or Brazilian students, or Pakistani, or even Indian and Russian students.  The individuals involved all had PRC passports.

Anecdotal yes, but also based in statistical reality.

[Jacob]

I really can't see the PRC going for that.

It has so far

[Razgovory]

I really can't see the PRC going for that.

It has so far

Taiwan on the other hand, has not.

[Jacob]

It has so far

Taiwan on the other hand, has not.

Uhm... yes they have. They haven't declared themselves an independent nation, distinct from China.

[CountDeMoney]

They haven't declared themselves an independent nation, distinct from China.

Not yet. 

[MadImmortalMan]

Uhm... yes they have. They haven't declared themselves an independent nation, distinct from China.

Of course. They are China. 

[MadImmortalMan]

I ain't on the dole.  I make like $40,000 a year.

That's a very impressive salary 

No it isn't. Your parking space costs more than that.

[Jacob]

They haven't declared themselves an independent nation, distinct from China.

Not yet. 

Yeah... if they do do that, then that's their choice to make. Likely not a smart move, and one that'll cause a lot of pain to all sorts of people, but it's their call. If the people of Quebec or Scotland or Texas or where ever want self-determination, then I generally think it's their right even if it may not be in their best interest.

That said, I don't think the PRC's claim is spurious at all, though I don't think it supersedes the will of the people of Taiwan if push comes to shove.

Realistically, I think the PRC are going to keep playing a long and mostly soft game - get Taiwan as integrated economically with the mainland that the economic and political elites of the country stand to lose too much from pissing off the PRC; so, reunification by inches and persuasion, basically. Of course, lots of things can happen before that comes to fruition, but I think it's probably the least harmful outcome beyond maintaining the status quo. As for Taiwan declaring full on formal indepence... they'll have to pick their moment right for it to work out, that's about the most I can say.

[Razgovory]

It has so far

Taiwan on the other hand, has not.

Uhm... yes they have. They haven't declared themselves an independent nation, distinct from China.

They seem to be happy where they are.  PRC overtures to reunite haven't had much traction in RoC.