Countdown to the Iran War Megathread

[Tamas]

As speculations mount, one is worse than the other. Apart from mandatory optimism, nobody appears to be convinced at all that a Jewish (or even an American) air campaign could put an end to the Iranian nucular program. Most estimates count with a 3-4 years delay imposed at the price of a highly destabilized region and unpredictable consequences.

Not good.

[jimmy olsen]

As speculations mount, one is worse than the other. Apart from mandatory optimism, nobody appears to be convinced at all that a Jewish (or even an American) air campaign could put an end to the Iranian nucular program. Most estimates count with a 3-4 years delay imposed at the price of a highly destabilized region and unpredictable consequences.

Not good.

If the Iranians retaliate in a big way and the US responds by destroying Iranian infrastructure wouldn't that tank the entire Iranian economy for years to come? They'd hardly be in a position to pursue their nuclear ambitions then.

[Tamas]

As speculations mount, one is worse than the other. Apart from mandatory optimism, nobody appears to be convinced at all that a Jewish (or even an American) air campaign could put an end to the Iranian nucular program. Most estimates count with a 3-4 years delay imposed at the price of a highly destabilized region and unpredictable consequences.

Not good.

If the Iranians retaliate in a big way and the US responds by destroying Iranian infrastructure wouldn't that tank the entire Iranian economy for years to come? They'd hardly be in a position to pursue their nuclear ambitions then.

I am not sure that cementing in the religious leadership for 75 more years is such a grand idea.

[CountDeMoney]

As speculations mount, one is worse than the other. Apart from mandatory optimism, nobody appears to be convinced at all that a Jewish (or even an American) air campaign could put an end to the Iranian nucular program. Most estimates count with a 3-4 years delay imposed at the price of a highly destabilized region and unpredictable consequences.

Not good.

Nobody is operating under the assumption that air strikes can end their program, and it doesn't have to.

A 3 or 4 year delay is exactly that.  And guess what?  You hit them again in 2 years, and delay them again.  And again.  And you keep hitting them until they come to the conclusion that having a nuclear programs is more costly than achieving one.  Nuclear programs are interlocked in such a way that you destroy one aspect of it, it retards the rest of the larger program.

Personally, in the meantime I like the asymmetrical approach of targeted assassination of specific Iranian talent along with continued cyber-assaults on their Industrial Control Systems and supply chain.

[Hansmeister]

Blow up their singular oil refinery and take out some of their oil fields and then watch as the regime falls apart as it can't bribe their domestic and foreign supporters any more.

[mongers]

Blow up their singular oil refinery and take out some of their oil fields and then watch as the regime falls apart as it can't bribe their domestic and foreign supporters any more.

So why didn't the US use these tactics against Saddam ? 

[Eddie Teach]

So why didn't the US use these tactics against Saddam ? 

Not flashy enough.

[grumbler]

Blow up their singular oil refinery and take out some of their oil fields and then watch as the regime falls apart as it can't bribe their domestic and foreign supporters any more.

So why didn't the US use these tactics against Saddam ? 

Maybe Saddam wasn't an Iranian?

[The Brain]

As speculations mount, one is worse than the other. Apart from mandatory optimism, nobody appears to be convinced at all that a Jewish (or even an American) air campaign could put an end to the Iranian nucular program. Most estimates count with a 3-4 years delay imposed at the price of a highly destabilized region and unpredictable consequences.

Not good.

Nobody is operating under the assumption that air strikes can end their program, and it doesn't have to.

A 3 or 4 year delay is exactly that.  And guess what?  You hit them again in 2 years, and delay them again.  And again.  And you keep hitting them until they come to the conclusion that having a nuclear programs is more costly than achieving one.  Nuclear programs are interlocked in such a way that you destroy one aspect of it, it retards the rest of the larger program.

Personally, in the meantime I like the asymmetrical approach of targeted assassination of specific Iranian talent along with continued cyber-assaults on their Industrial Control Systems and supply chain.

I am shocked that an American thinks that murdering civilians is great.

[Eddie Teach]

A guy building weapons can't really hide behind being a "civilian".

[The Brain]

A guy building weapons can't really hide behind being a "civilian".

I don't get it.

[Pedrito]

saved.

L.

[CountDeMoney]

I am shocked that an American thinks that murdering civilians is great.

It's more than great;  it's

[Eddie Teach]

saved.

L.

I don't get it. 

[Razgovory]

I am not sure that cementing in the religious leadership for 75 more years is such a grand idea.

We saw how effective the opposition was back in 2009.