Statisticians, to me!

[Berkut]

OK, according to rpiforeceast.com, these are the odds that Arizona wins their next 5 games:

rpiforecast.com

60% chance of a win @Wazzu
47% chance of a win @UW
92% chance of a win USC
67% chance of a win UCLA
83% chance of a win @ASU

I want to know what the over all odds are of Arizona winning:

5 games
4 games
3 games
2 games
1 game

Please show your work. Pay for the first correct answer is one million fake internet dollars.

[DGuller]

Yeah, I'm so not doing that.  There are no shortcuts that I can see, you're going to have to evaluate each possible combination of the 5 games.  If the odds were the same for each game, then it would be a relatively simple probability problem.

[katmai]

They aren't going to tourney, so don't even worry about it

[Admiral Yi]

All 5 is easy.

.6*.47*.92*.67*.83= 14%

[DGuller]

To give an outline of how you would get an answer, it's not hard, just tedious.  There are 32 possible results, and for each of those 32 results you multiply the probabilities of the 5 events.  Use given probabilities if game X is a win in one of those 32 combinations, or 1 - probability if it's a loss.  Then sum the products up by the number of wins.  I could probably do it in 5-10 minutes in Excel, but frankly it's too boring.

[Berkut]

To give an outline of how you would get an answer, it's not hard, just tedious.  There are 32 possible results, and for each of those 32 results you multiply the probabilities of the 5 events.  Use given probabilities if game X is a win in one of those 32 combinations, or 1 - probability if it's a loss.  Then sum the products up by the number of wins.

I could probably do it in 5-10 minutes in Excel, but frankly it's too boring.

[Berkut]

Two million fake internet dollars?

[crazy canuck]

Two million fake internet dollars?

[grumbler]

5 games = c. 19%
4 games = c. 25%
3 games =  c. 31%
2 games = c. 20%
1 game = c. 5%

That's be 2 million internet dollars, please.

[DGuller]

Fuck you, Berkut.

Wins        Probability
0   0.000951
1   0.019790
2   0.128147
3   0.334805
4   0.372032
5   0.144275

[DGuller]

5 games = c. 19%
4 games = c. 25%
3 games =  c. 31%
2 games = c. 20%
1 game = c. 5%

That's be 2 million internet dollars, please.

And fuck you grumbler.  Hopefully Berkut requires the answers to be correct in order to claim the price, or I got screwed out of 2 mil. 

[Berkut]

Thanks DG!

[crazy canuck]

Berkut always pays his debts.

[frunk]

DGuller's numbers are right, but only if I get a share of the internet money.

[DGuller]

Are you trying to arbitrage the bookies, Berkut?