Statisticians, to me!

[HVC]

grumbler tricked Dguller. He knew that Dguller would have to prove him wrong and thus give the answer berk was looking for. Crafty

[Gbeagle]

5 games = c. 19%
4 games = c. 25%
3 games =  c. 31%
2 games = c. 20%
1 game = c. 5%

That's be 2 million internet dollars, please.

This seems quite wrong to me.  I'm just running this with a random number generator and about a million trials (since its trivial this way), so not an analytical solution. What I get matches DGuller's numbers within the statistical uncertainty.

Games Won  | Prob
0   |   0.00092
1   |   0.01985
2   |   0.12834
3   |   0.33430
4   |   0.37231
5   |   0.14429

[DGuller]

Since I am an actuary, I have to give one word of caution about the above calculations.  We assumed that each game result is independent from the other.  Realistically speaking, if Arizona loses the first 4 games, then odds are that they may not be 83% favorites to win the last one.  I'd be careful before wagering my kneecaps on these calculations.

[Berkut]

True, and I am sure the rpi forecast would change after each game.

And those numbers are mostly bullshit anyway. But thanks for crunching them for me.

[Berkut]

Statistically, how much do the odds of winning all five games drop if we lose the first one against Wazzu?

[Admiral Yi]

Noticeably.

[crazy canuck]

Even I can figure that one out.

[frunk]

Since I am an actuary, I have to give one word of caution about the above calculations.  We assumed that each game result is independent from the other.  Realistically speaking, if Arizona loses the first 4 games, then odds are that they may not be 83% favorites to win the last one.  I'd be careful before wagering my kneecaps on these calculations.

What you can say with some confidence is that 3-4 wins is pretty likely, and 2-5 wins is very likely (for statistically normal chances of likely).  I don't think you have to worry about 0 wins.

[grumbler]

This seems quite wrong to me.  I'm just running this with a random number generator and about a million trials (since its trivial this way), so not an analytical solution. What I get matches DGuller's numbers within the statistical uncertainty.

Games Won  | Prob
0   |   0.00092
1   |   0.01985
2   |   0.12834
3   |   0.33430
4   |   0.37231
5   |   0.14429

Since my numbers were made up, of course they are wrong.  But people like to prove me wrong, so they had to do the calculations Berkut asked for (and the stats guys refused to do because it was too hard) to do so.  Berkut wins, and I don't are about being wrong, so this seems like a win to me as well. 

[DGuller]

This seems quite wrong to me.  I'm just running this with a random number generator and about a million trials (since its trivial this way), so not an analytical solution. What I get matches DGuller's numbers within the statistical uncertainty.

Games Won  | Prob
0   |   0.00092
1   |   0.01985
2   |   0.12834
3   |   0.33430
4   |   0.37231
5   |   0.14429

Since my numbers were made up, of course they are wrong.  But people like to prove me wrong, so they had to do the calculations Berkut asked for (and the stats guys refused to do because it was too hard) to do so.  Berkut wins, and I don't are about being wrong, so this seems like a win to me as well. 

I'm quick, but not that quick.  I didn't do those calculations in the 1 minute gap between our posts.

[crazy canuck]

Dont take that away from Grumbler.

[HVC]

Dont take that away from Grumbler.

I didn't even get am honorable mention for coming up with it first

[Ed Anger]

1 Arizona Sucks
2 Lute Olsen sucks dicks
3 Arizona sucks
4 Arizona football sucks. RICH ROD? BWHAHAHAHA
5 Arizona sucks

Your welcome.

[frunk]

Statistically, how much do the odds of winning all five games drop if we lose the first one against Wazzu?

Did you mean to ask "how much do the odds change if we lose the first one against Wazzu?".  If so:

4 Wins: 0.24045764
3 Wins: 0.45974844
2 Wins: 0.25150884
1 Win: 0.04590644
0 Wins: 0.00237864

If you win the first game just shift the win count up by one.  Of course DGuller's warning about non-independent events is well taken, so take these with even more salt then the first set.

[fhdz]

Statistically, how much do the odds of winning all five games drop if we lose the first one against Wazzu?