Fighting reaches the gates of Damscus!

[Razgovory]

After seeing how the Libyan "no-fly zone" turned into flying bombing missions in support of armed "democratic activists", don't expect the Russian to support any UN resolution with any tangible demands towards Assad. A simple question "of fool me once, fool me twice"...

I think the Russians and Chinese fully understood what a "No-fly zone" would turn into.  Thing is, Libya had no friends.  Big Mo had been trying to cultivate relations with Europe and the US, but those were the first people to toss him out on his ass.  Syria has friends in Iran and Russia.  I don't know how they they do with Chinese, but I Imagine the Chinese will side against the Syrians only if everyone else is against them as well.  Chinese policy tends to be to agree with consensus and make as few enemies as possible.

Still, sending strongly worded letters isn't likely to do much in any case.  I suspect that everyone played their part and is content if not happy about the outcome.  Everyone looks like they are doing something but don't risk actually having to do something.

[Razgovory]

I agree with this article generally.  I especially think the description of Syria's collapse as Lebanon on steroids is probably accurate.  From what I've read of journalists in Syria apparently the majority of the army aren't trusted by the regime, only a couple of Alawite regiments commanded by Assad family members are seen as loyal enough.  I think when the regime collapses (and it does seem a when to me) we'll  probably see the Alawites retreat to the heartland where they'll be backed by Hezbullah and Iran.  The Saudis are already allegedly funding some of the armed opposition.

It remains difficult to see a path to actually help Syria beyond cries for 'intervention'.  It's been remarkable seeing the Arab League as an active and positive force in the region the past year or so (again the book on Qatar's role in these revolutions will be fascinating) so it's sad that that'll probably dissipate.  Sadly I think one good policy that could be immediately taken is to start a process to help the Turks and Jordanians who will almost certainly be facing a humanitarian disaster

This is possible.  The problem I see is the major unknown lurking in the background.  That's Iran.  US and Israeli's conflict with Iran seems to be coming to an end.  I expect overt violence this year.  As Syria and Iran are good buddies and what effect that will have on the Syrian civil war is completely unknown.  If Israel starts hitting targets in Iran, Syria may launch attacks against Israel throwing a monkey wrench in the Arab League unity.  The deaths of Qaddafi and Saddam and the treatment of Mubarak will certainly be on the mind of Assad. I fear 2012 will be a bloody year.

[Tamas]

Raz, excellent quote from Lettow, cracks me up every time, classic. 

[Monoriu]

Raz, excellent quote from Lettow, cracks me up every time, classic. 

I've read that quote many times and I must admit that I still don't quite understand what it means

[Darth Wagtaros]

Turkey might well invade sooner or later, as they nearly did in the 90s.  The Kurds will have a free for all up there, without even the fiction of belonging to a state as they do in Iraq. 

[Razgovory]

Raz, excellent quote from Lettow, cracks me up every time, classic. 

I've read that quote many times and I must admit that I still don't quite understand what it means

Nobody knows.

[Ed Anger]

Raz, excellent quote from Lettow, cracks me up every time, classic. 

I've read that quote many times and I must admit that I still don't quite understand what it means

Nobody knows.

I do.

[Ed Anger]

Also, I hope Assad kills 'em all.

[Razgovory]

Also, I hope Assad kills 'em all.

Assad's boys kept kicking my ass in Combat Mission: Squish the Arab.  So Fuck him.

[Monoriu]

Raz, excellent quote from Lettow, cracks me up every time, classic. 

I've read that quote many times and I must admit that I still don't quite understand what it means

Nobody knows.

Glad to know I'm not the only one. 

[Ed Anger]

Also, I hope Assad kills 'em all.

Assad's boys kept kicking my ass in Combat Mission: Squish the Arab.  So Fuck him.

Ah, Combat Mission: Shit Force. The game the convinced me to never, EVER buy another Battlefront game again.

[Razgovory]

It was fun, but the only way to make it challenging was to have you attack a force 3 or 4 times larger then your own.  Maybe if they had thrown in Russian or Chinese units the game would have been better.   Having a thousand Arab militia attack a platoon of entrenched Marines is kinda fun in a sadistic way.  Sort of like Zulu with less singing.

[Sheilbh]

As Syria and Iran are good buddies and what effect that will have on the Syrian civil war is completely unknown.  If Israel starts hitting targets in Iran, Syria may launch attacks against Israel throwing a monkey wrench in the Arab League unity.

Well the Iranians are allies of the Syrian regime.  The regime are, reportedly, barely if at all in control of around 50% of the country.  It's possible that the Syrians would attack Israel in the case of an attack on Iran.  I think that's unlikely though.  I just don't see Syria being able to mount that sort of assault.  When Assad has two regiments that he can actually use it's difficult to be too adventurous.

Of greater concern are Hezbullah - Nasrallah gave what was, apparently even by Lebanese terms, a blood-curdlingly, startlingly sectarian speech this Ahura - and Islamic Jihad (who are replacing Hamas as Iran's chosen Palestinian force).  There'd also probably be popular reaction in Egypt, action by Hamas and more unforseeable consequences in Palestine and the region.  That's why it's such a difficult decision.

The deaths of Qaddafi and Saddam and the treatment of Mubarak will certainly be on the mind of Assad. I fear 2012 will be a bloody year.

It's a shame he doesn't have Ben Ali's retirement on his mind or Saleh's recuperation.  If Assad wanted it I'm sure someone could find a nice villa.

Relatedly the former rebel forces in Misrata today announced the death of three Libyans who'd gone to join the Syrian revolution.  I think we can expect to see a lot more of that.