GOP Primary Megathread!

[Viking]

My prediction, Christie and Palin duke it out in a brokered convention

[Eddie Teach]

I think Rubio's got the best shot in a brokered convention. Assuming he wants it of course.

[Berkut]

I don't know if anyone should be alarmed, but I do find the Santorum religious nutjobs alarming in that they appear to be a significant power in their party. Kind of like the rights version of the Michael Moore/MoveOn crazies. Not alarming in and of themselves, but alarming that they have as much power over their party as they do...

How much power does Michael Moore and the MoveOn crowd have in the Democratic party? Are there any purity tests originating from that potential Democratic candidates have to pass that originate from that crowd?

They don't appear to have much power anymore, although an argument can be made that the power they had resulted in the Dems totally over-playing their hand when Obama got elected.

Maybe that is the deal...

[Jacob]

They don't appear to have much power anymore, although an argument can be made that the power they had resulted in the Dems totally over-playing their hand when Obama got elected.

Maybe that is the deal...

I guess I don't follow US politics that closely so this may be a silly question... how did the Democrats overplay their hand after Obama's election?

[Berkut]

They don't appear to have much power anymore, although an argument can be made that the power they had resulted in the Dems totally over-playing their hand when Obama got elected.

Maybe that is the deal...

I guess I don't follow US politics that closely so this may be a silly question... how did the Democrats overplay their hand after Obama's election?

IMO they used his election and the TARP crisis to try to shove as much crap and spend bullshit through under the guise of "stimulus" they could get away with, which caused the Blue Dogs to balk, and let the Republicans scupper anything and everything they tried under the guise of anti-crazyPelosi efforts. And since the Dems pretty much fucked Obama over (meaning the Congressional Dems) and all but told him "Nice job, now be a good boy and smile and wave while we get things done...", Obama ended up looking like a tool as well, which further let the nutbar Republicans play up the out of control spending, no leadership angle.

These days those Moveon nuts are pretty much irrelevant - maybe that kind of crazy bullshit only works when the other party is in power. Maybe if the Republicans got back into power, they would also marginalize their nutbars?

[Sheilbh]

These days those Moveon nuts are pretty much irrelevant - maybe that kind of crazy bullshit only works when the other party is in power. Maybe if the Republicans got back into power, they would also marginalize their nutbars?

Has that worked in the House?  Or during 2002-06?

[Kleves]

I do think that if McCain had won in '08, the Democratic primary this year would have been filled with nutjobs just like the Republican primary has been. Would they have gained any traction (as the Republican nutjobs ahved seemed to)? Maybe not, but I think we would have all seen a disconcerting amount of crazy.

[alfred russel]

By any sane measure, the political world today is MORE religiously dominated by the Christian right than it was in the previous generations, yet their faux persecution complex is still going strong.

I don't understand this. In our grandparents generation, they would actually teach bible lessons in schools--prayers weren't even controversial. They got an amendment through to ban alcohol sales, largely on religious grounds. Corporal punishment in school was the norm. Birth control--and of course abortion--was illegal. Pornography was illegal. Adultery was illegal.

[alfred russel]

I think it will be closer than 2008 but Romney keeps stepping in shit. Really, it's okay that you don't watch NASCAR, but don't tell us that you have good friends who own NASCAR teams in an effort to relate to the common guy. When asked what kind of car you drive, don't mention that your wife drives multiple Cadillacs. Keep that stuff on the down low. Who the hell is advising this guy?

He should just give a speech were he talks about how incredibly wealthy he is and his lifestyle, etc and conclude by saying, "if you think this means I shouldn't be president vote for the other multimillionaire."

Maybe it could get out of the way the crazes he starts on a weekly basis by some comment that reflects he has a lot of money.

[Barrister]

By any sane measure, the political world today is MORE religiously dominated by the Christian right than it was in the previous generations, yet their faux persecution complex is still going strong.

I don't understand this. In our grandparents generation, they would actually teach bible lessons in schools--prayers weren't even controversial. They got an amendment through to ban alcohol sales, largely on religious grounds. Corporal punishment in school was the norm. Birth control--and of course abortion--was illegal. Pornography was illegal. Adultery was illegal.

You don't have to go that far back.

When I was going to school we started with the Lord's prayer.  Stores were closed on Sundays.  Christmas plays at school had a telling of the birth of Christ.

Berkut might be right that the religious right has more overt political power than they ever have, however in terms of the wider culture it has become more and mroe secular.  That is what explains their feeling of defensiveness.

[Sheilbh]

I agree.

It's interesting, in that abortion has been restricted more in more states over the past decade than any time since Roe v Wade and, of course, there a now many states with constitutional amendments prohibiting gay marriage (though other states have legalised it).  But the cultural, symbolic stuff seems to matter more.

It's the reverse of the situation here.  We have laws requiring religious groups that deal with adoption to treat gay couples equally.  There's been no new restrictions on abortion (though we've got stricter laws than the US already) and we'll get gay marriage from a Conservative-led government.  Despite all that, perhaps because of a state church, we still have prayers in school, lots of state funded faith schools, nativity plays at public schools that are about the Nativity and restricted Sunday opening hours (though there's been some liberalisation on that).  But they've all been sort-of denuded of religious content and importance.  The Churches are trying to push back on some of the politics but it's not really succeeding.

[Jacob]

IMO they used his election and the TARP crisis to try to shove as much crap and spend bullshit through under the guise of "stimulus" they could get away with, which caused the Blue Dogs to balk, and let the Republicans scupper anything and everything they tried under the guise of anti-crazyPelosi efforts. And since the Dems pretty much fucked Obama over (meaning the Congressional Dems) and all but told him "Nice job, now be a good boy and smile and wave while we get things done...", Obama ended up looking like a tool as well, which further let the nutbar Republicans play up the out of control spending, no leadership angle.

Ah okay. That may very well be true; I didn't follow that close enough to have much to say on that.

[Razgovory]

I don't know if anyone should be alarmed, but I do find the Santorum religious nutjobs alarming in that they appear to be a significant power in their party. Kind of like the rights version of the Michael Moore/MoveOn crazies. Not alarming in and of themselves, but alarming that they have as much power over their party as they do...

How much power does Michael Moore and the MoveOn crowd have in the Democratic party? Are there any purity tests originating from that potential Democratic candidates have to pass that originate from that crowd?

They don't appear to have much power anymore, although an argument can be made that the power they had resulted in the Dems totally over-playing their hand when Obama got elected.

Maybe that is the deal...

Here's an idea:  Maybe they never had much power to begin with.  Michael Moore is a guy who makes films.  Moveon.org is a bunch of people on the internet.  What exactly have they accomplished?  Not much as far as I can tell.  Why have they not accomplished much?  Cause they didn't have any real power to begin with.  The evol Michael Moore and the insidious moveon.org is invoked when Conservatives want to say "they do it too!".

[Razgovory]

IMO they used his election and the TARP crisis to try to shove as much crap and spend bullshit through under the guise of "stimulus" they could get away with, which caused the Blue Dogs to balk, and let the Republicans scupper anything and everything they tried under the guise of anti-crazyPelosi efforts. And since the Dems pretty much fucked Obama over (meaning the Congressional Dems) and all but told him "Nice job, now be a good boy and smile and wave while we get things done...", Obama ended up looking like a tool as well, which further let the nutbar Republicans play up the out of control spending, no leadership angle.

These days those Moveon nuts are pretty much irrelevant - maybe that kind of crazy bullshit only works when the other party is in power. Maybe if the Republicans got back into power, they would also marginalize their nutbars?

OMG the government spent money!  That's not exactly extraordinary.

[The Minsky Moment]

By any sane measure, the political world today is MORE religiously dominated by the Christian right than it was in the previous generations, yet their faux persecution complex is still going strong.

I don't understand this. In our grandparents generation, they would actually teach bible lessons in schools--prayers weren't even controversial. They got an amendment through to ban alcohol sales, largely on religious grounds. Corporal punishment in school was the norm. Birth control--and of course abortion--was illegal. Pornography was illegal. Adultery was illegal.

not quite so simple:

The public school is supported by the taxes which each citizen, regardless of his religion or his lack of it, is compelled to pay. The school, like the government, is simply a civil institution. It is secular, and not religious, in its purposes. The truths of the Bible are the truths of religion, which do not come within the province of the public school. . . . No one denies that they should be taught to the youth of the State. The constitution and the law do not interfere with such teaching, but they do banish theological polemics from the schools and the school districts. This is done not from any hostility to religion, but because it is no part of the duty of the State to teach religion . . ."

People ex rel. Ring v. Board of Education, 245 Ill. 334, 349, 92 N.E. 251, 256 (1910).

What happened after our grandparents generation is that the Warren Court was willing to use the 14th Amendment as a tool to impose these kinds of rulings on a nationwide basis on state-run school systems.