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The Great War

Started by The Brain, December 01, 2011, 11:35:12 AM

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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Tonitrus on December 01, 2011, 07:29:11 PM
Which mass army did Sweden lead to victory after 1901? :hmm:

You're missing the point.

Without mass conscription, Sweden might have had the extra civilian labor to ship up a few more thousand tons of iron to their Nazi overlords in WW2.  So in that sense, their military recruitment system had a decisive impact in WW2.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 06:30:28 PM
Are you saying that Britain had strong reason to believe that France and Russia would quickly defeat Germany in case of war? I haven't encountered this before.

yes of course.  The plan was that the French would tie up the Germans in the West, and the Russians would plow through a virtually undefended East.  And it wasnt that far off - the Allies just underestimated the staggering degree of Russian command incompetence.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Camerus

Britain's policy of keeping a small standing army - and relying on continental allies to do a lot of the heavy lifting when war broke out - had been successful for centuries.  I'm not sure how much blame Britain deserves for not keeping a larger army by 1914 considering:

(A)  They already had what appeared to be formidable continental allies encircling Germany
(B)  The policy of a small standing army (partly fueled by a geographical isolation that was still equally true in 1914) had been successful for centuries
(C)  As far as I'm aware, the naval race with Germany was already putting a strain on the British military budget
(D)  Compared to other nations' pre-war plans, e.g.  Plan XVII, the Schlieffen Plan, and Russian lack of effective planning, the British mistake of not keeping a larger army was less spectacularly costly

That being said, in hindsight it would have made sense for Britain to have had a larger army when the war broke out.  But was it a particularly egregious error?  I say no.

Neil

Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 07:03:36 PM
If Germany quickly defeats France (and Russia) then a big British 1914 army would have been sorely needed
No it wouldn't have.  If France and Russia are defeated, then the British army is a waste of resources, because only the RN matters at that point.
QuoteMost other European countries had grasped that mass armies were the present. Britain believed that they magically could do without one. This nearly cost them the war and certainly made the road to victory a lot harder than it could have been. Classic blunder, and like many blunders it made sense from a peacetime convenience perspective.
But really it didn't.  The French endured, and once that happened the Allies had won.
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Josquius

#34
Big armies just go totally against the British way of doing things. It's really not as simple as making Britain realise it needs a big army for the next war, it would require a huge overhaul in the very way Britain thinks of its army.
The army was a secondary force, auxiliary to the navy and generally not respected. Armies just 'aren't British'.
The Brits were very much into quality over quantity, the thin red line of well drilled soldiers armed with the height of technology holding out against the great unwashed beyond. The fewer soldiers they had to bother with the better.

And hell, given the massed Russian and French numbers surely a few top of the line Brits placed in the right place would be enough?
Knock out the German navy in one big Trafalgar mark 2 and keep the Russians and French funded and minimally supported and all will be good for Britain.
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jimmy olsen

#35
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 01, 2011, 07:29:11 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 07:21:09 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 01, 2011, 07:07:26 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 07:03:36 PM
Most other European countries had grasped that mass armies were the present. Britain believed that they magically could do without one. This nearly cost them the war and certainly made the road to victory a lot harder than it could have been. Classic blunder, and like many blunders it made sense from a peacetime convenience perspective.

Aint hindsight swell?

Except it wasn't hindsight for mighty military geniuses like for instance Sweden, which got rid of its 17th century recruiting system and switched to universal conscription in 1901.

Which mass army did Sweden lead to victory after 1901? :hmm:
A rouge Russian admiral nearly carried out a preemptive strike on the Swedish navy before getting called back.

It's an interesting POD (point of departure), a Russian collapse occurring just a few months earlier could have changed a lot of things.

Moreover, such a blatant attack on a neutral would cast the Entente and the Central Powers as morally equivalent. It could have swayed the diplomatic and military evaluations of other neutral powers in their decisions on whether to intervene.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

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Ideologue

Why did the Russians want to attack Sweden?
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jimmy olsen

Quote from: Ideologue on December 02, 2011, 01:00:25 AM
Why did the Russians want to attack Sweden?
I'm a bit drunk so I'll have to look it up in the morning, but the admiral in charge of the Baltic fleet thought that Sweden would definitely come in on the side of the Central Powers and wanted to strike first.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
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fhdz

and the horse you rode in on

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: Kleves on December 01, 2011, 05:29:10 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 03:46:29 PM
The Brits tend to get away with this in the history books while less serious errors like alleged Haigian incompetence or Gallipoli get attention. Seems to me that the decision to not bring an army to an army fight was a much bigger blunder and had much bigger consequences.
How were the Brits to know that the French would get so soundly crushed in the opening months by the Germans? Even more importantly, how were they to know that the Russian Steamroller would get Hindenburged? How were the Brits to know that  the millions that France + Russia could put into the field would not be enough? They didn't need a huge army, because their allies had huge armies - bigger armies, in fact, then their adversaries.
they should have let the germans win.

Sheilbh

Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

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jimmy olsen

Quote from: fahdiz on December 02, 2011, 01:10:00 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 02, 2011, 12:53:02 AM
A rouge Russian admiral

fancy
That's one of those words I literally could not spell correctly to save my life.  :(
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

The Brain

Quote from: Neil on December 01, 2011, 11:01:34 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 01, 2011, 07:03:36 PM
If Germany quickly defeats France (and Russia) then a big British 1914 army would have been sorely needed
No it wouldn't have.  If France and Russia are defeated, then the British army is a waste of resources, because only the RN matters at that point.

Deliberately obtuse much? It would have been needed to prevent the quick German defeat of France and Russia.
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