Flavor of the Month: Newt!

[alfred russel]

Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up.  Romney it is."

I think we have discussed this before, but we probably end up in a situation where if Romney can't get over 50% of the vote, he won't win. If 50+% of the electorate is shifting between similar candidates that are not Romney, maybe 50+% just want someone other than him. Whoever ends up as the last man (or woman) standing of those candidates, may be the one to go over 50%.

[DGuller]

Depends on how early the anti-Romney votes consolidate.  Republican primary races tend to be decided very quickly.

[alfred russel]

So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.

Has Cain truly cratered?  I thought he was going to ride it out because of the squishiness of sexual harrassment charges.

I haven't been following so closely. I heard on the radio that there was a tracking poll that had shown him up at 40%, but late last week the same poll showed he fell to 18%. 18% would still be a good showing, but to lose so much support is a train wreck. I'm guessing the radio station picked a poll that showed the most change. Someone following this more closely may have better numbers.

[DGuller]

Ugh, God, I did not need to read the part about Santorum. I could literally feel the contents of my stomach inch up.  That makes the santorum stuff he's known for look palatable by comparison.

[stjaba]

So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.

Before that, Perry cratered, but Romney didn't rise and Cain surged.

This gives some credence to the theory that Romney has a ceiling of support that is going to keep him from being the nominee.

I think Romney has fared well in one on one polls with other candidates. This will probably bear out in the primaries  when other candidates inevitably drop out after the first couple primaries/caucuses.

Also, there are two other national polls that have just been released. Out of the three national polls, Romney, Gingrich, and Cain each lead in one of the polls. And Cain is still leading in many of the recent Iowa polls. http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

But generally I agree. The people who are saying that Romney has this election locked up yet are being a little premature IMO. Iowa is still up for grabs. Romney is going to win New Hampshire. South Carolina is completely up for grabs. Florida is up for grabs. Romney is obviously the best candidate as far as the media and establishment is concerned, but the voters don't always go along with that, particularly in light of how far right the current Republican electorate is.

Just look at all the Tea Party candidates that won Republican primaries in 2010. For example, in 2010, in Florida,  Rick Scott, a businessmen with a shady past and absolutely no political experience beat Bill McCollum, a widely respected career politician in Florida for the Republican governor nomination and ended up winning the general election.  If Romney doesn't lock it up early, I could see a long drawn out battle.

[Jacob]

I'd say that Cain doesn't come across as particularly strong on foreign policy in this question on Libya: http://www.jsonline.com/multimedia/video/?bcpid=13960334001&bctid=1275195602001

Apparently he would've done a better job than Obama on Libya, primarily through hearing all the different views and assessing the available information and making a decision as the commander in chief.

[alfred russel]

Depends on how early the anti-Romney votes consolidate.  Republican primary races tend to be decided very quickly.

Candidates also tend to drop out very quickly. If Romney takes a plurality in early states, I doubt everyone is going to drop out and give him the win. The people finishing in 4th and 5th or worse will lose their media coverage, their money, and their appeal to undecided voters. By SC we will probably no more than 3 candidates with meaningful support. Only a negligible number of delegates will have been awarded by then.

[Sheilbh]

I bet Pawlentey wished he hadn't dropped out now.  This could have been his moment

[Admiral Yi]

I bet Pawlentey wished he hadn't dropped out now.  This could have been his moment

He would just be fighting with Huntsman for his seven votes.

[Sheilbh]

He would just be fighting with Huntsman for his seven votes.

But they're going for very different markets.  Pawlentey was meant to be the reliably conservative (and Evangelical) alternative to Romney who wouldn't frighten the horses.

Huntsman's doing his own thing.  It is to Republican politics what Shatner is to singing.

[Admiral Yi]

But they're going for very different markets.  Pawlentey was meant to be the reliably conservative (and Evangelical) alternative to Romney who wouldn't frighten the horses.

??? I thought Pawlenty was supposed to be the grown-up managerial candidate.  I.e the non-Mormon, non-Obamacare Romney.

[alfred russel]

Pawlenty was the candidate for people who thought that straw polls in the middle of the summer provided any kind of definitive answer. Even in a field full of very bad ideas, that one was unique.

[Sheilbh]

??? I thought Pawlenty was supposed to be the grown-up managerial candidate.  I.e the non-Mormon, non-Obamacare Romney.

He was a grown up, dull governor with a Christian conservative flavour.  He described himself as reliably socially conservative and I believe his campaign drew quiet attention to his Christianity, position on abortion, support for reinstating DADT and all the rest in contrast with Romney.  He was trying to be the guy who could get conservative, Tea Party and moderate votes.  Then Michelle Bachmann entered the race and everything went mad.

[DGuller]

It also didn't help that he bent over when under fire, which he could do with great agility due to absence of spine.

[Ed Anger]

Ugh, God, I did not need to read the part about Santorum. I could literally feel the contents of my stomach inch up.  That makes the santorum stuff he's known for look palatable by comparison.

For some reason, Languish attracts people who get the queasies. Zoups, Spellus the hipster and now you.

I am... disappointed.