Flavor of the Month: Newt!

[Razgovory]

I don't want to go all Timmay here, but I do have a few things to say about this article.  When did CNN start working with Orcs?  And why hasn't Santorum gotten any traction?

Washington (CNN) – A new national survey of Republicans indicates that it's basically all tied up between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Gingrich on the rise and businessman Herman Cain falling due to the sexual harassment allegations he's been facing the past two weeks.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 24% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say Romney is their most likely choice for their party's presidential nominee with Gingrich at 22%. Romney's two-point advantage is well within the survey's sampling error.

While the level of support has pretty much stayed the same for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who's making his second bid for the White House, Gingrich has seen his support jump 14 points since October.

The poll also indicates that 14 percent back Cain, down 11 points from last month. Four women have alleged that Cain sexually harassed them during the late 1990s when he headed the National Restaurant Association. Cain denies the allegations.

"Cain is struggling with the charges of sexual harassment, and while most Republicans tend to dismiss those charges, roughly four in 10 Republicans think this is a serious matter and tend to believe the women who made those charges," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

The survey indicates that only a bare majority of Republicans tend to believe Cain, and more than a third say he should end his presidential campaign. Among the general public, Cain has a bigger credibility problem - 50% of all Americans say they tend to believe the women and only a third say they believe Cain.

"Not surprisingly, there is a big gender gap on this matter - women say this is a serious matter and believe the women, but men say the story has been overblown and are split on which side they believe," Holland added.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 12% in the survey, basically all even with Cain for third place in the hunt for the nomination. Perry was at 13% in CNN's October poll. The new survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, entirely after last Wednesday's presidential debate where Perry suffered an embarrassing "oops" moment when the one-time front-runner struggled for nearly a minute to name the third of three federal agencies he would cut if elected president.

While Perry's overall horse race number has not suffered, dig deeper into the poll and it appears the "oops" moment is hurting his standing with Republican voters. In September, 72% of Republicans said Perry had the right personal qualities to be president. A majority of Republicans still feel that way, but that number has dropped 14 points since September.

According to the poll, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who's making his third run for the presidency, is at 8%, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 6%, former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania each at 3%, and 8% are unsure.

The poll's Monday release comes seven weeks and one day before the Iowa caucuses, the first contest on the primary and caucus calendar. The survey indicates that just over six in 10 Republicans say they may change their minds, with 31% say they will definitely support the candidate they are currently backing.

With Cain dropping and Perry flat-lining, it looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the "anybody but Romney" candidate. If the GOP race becomes a two-man battle between Romney and Gingrich, the poll indicates they are well-matched. Romney and Gingrich are the two most popular Republican candidates among the GOP rank and file, and the only two with favorable ratings above 50% among the Republicans surveyed.

More than three-quarters of Republicans think both men have the right personal qualities to be president and more than seven in 10 Republicans say they agree with Gingrich and Romney on important issues.

The key difference between Romney and Gingrich is electability. For the first time in CNN's polling, Romney now tops Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. But Gingrich faces an 8-point deficit when paired with Obama in a general election matchup.

"Among all Americans, 58% say that Romney has the personal qualities a president should have, compared to just 45% for Gingrich. Most Americans don't agree with either man on important issues," Holland said.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,036 adults Americans, including 480 Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, as well as 552 men and 514 women, questioned by telephone. The overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for questions only of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP.

Well, I was wondering about the Santorum question: so I looked at Wiki and found this:

Santorum and his wife, Karen Garver Santorum, have seven children: Elizabeth Anne (born 1991); Richard John ("Johnny"), Jr. (born 1993); Daniel James (born 1995); Sarah Maria (born 1998); Peter Kenneth (born 1999); Patrick Francis (born 2001); and Isabella "Bella" Maria (born 2008). Bella was subsequently diagnosed with Trisomy 18, a serious genetic disorder which is fatal before birth in 90 per cent of cases.[104] In 1996, their son Gabriel Michael was born prematurely and lived for only two hours (a sonogram taken before Gabriel was born revealed that his posterior urethral valve was closed and that the prognosis for his survival was therefore poor). While pregnant, Karen Santorum developed a life-threatening intrauterine infection and a fever that reached nearly 105 degrees. She went into labor when she was 20 weeks pregnant and allowed doctors to give her Oxytocin to speed the birth.[105]

Karen Santorum wrote a book about the experience: Letters to Gabriel: The True Story of Gabriel Michael Santorum.[106] In it, she writes that the couple brought the deceased infant home from the hospital and introduced the dead child to their living children as "your brother Gabriel" and slept with the body overnight before returning it to the hospital. The anecdote was also written about by Michael Sokolove in a 2005 New York Times Magazine story on Santorum.[1] Karen is also the author of a book on etiquette for children.[107]

Oh, so maybe that's why.

[jimmy olsen]

 

[DGuller]

So, how long does this game last?  Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one?  Santorum is still waiting for his turn.

[Sheilbh]

I'm looking forward to the McCotter surge.

[crazy canuck]

Is it too late for someone else to enter the race

[Admiral Yi]

This poll surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.  That's going to give you a different result than the typical primary survey.

[Razgovory]

So, how long does this game last?  Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one?  Santorum is still waiting for his turn.

I can't look at Santorum with out thinking of Norman Bates now.  Sleeping with a dead baby is really creepy.

[Sheilbh]

This poll surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.  That's going to give you a different result than the typical primary survey.

In what way?

Incidentally I think Nate Silver said that the nascent Newt-surge seems to be happening in early state polls too not just nationally.

[Admiral Yi]

In what way?

More...independent. 

[Sheilbh]

More...independent. 

Possibly.  I think I've read (and mentioned) that Republican (and Democrat) leaning 'independents' actually tend to vote for that party as much and overwhelmingly share the views of that party.  They've far more in common with the party they 'lean' towards than they do independents or swing voters.

Having said that shouldn't that help Romney? 

[HVC]

So, how long does this game last?  Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one?  Santorum is still waiting for his turn.

I can't look at Santorum with out thinking of Norman Bates now.  Sleeping with a dead baby is really creepy.

Noy only a dead baby. a dead premature baby. they look weird at the best of times.

[Admiral Yi]

Having said that shouldn't that help Romney?

One would expect that, yes.  My point is it's not surprising that Newt replaces the conservative flavor of the month in this particular poll.

[alfred russel]

So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.

Before that, Perry cratered, but Romney didn't rise and Cain surged.

This gives some credence to the theory that Romney has a ceiling of support that is going to keep him from being the nominee.

[DGuller]

Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up.  Romney it is."

[Admiral Yi]

So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.

Has Cain truly cratered?  I thought he was going to ride it out because of the squishiness of sexual harrassment charges.