Iranian plot thwarted

[Sheilbh]

Soo, I can't see why the Iranian state would organize this. What's the edge? Or they can be so amateur that they thought their sponsorship was untracable? Or simply they want hostile action from the US to prop up their failing regime?

Yeah, I'd like some more details on this first.  I'm suspicious of plots that read like Hollywood thrillers and especially ones that sound like a Tom Clancey novel in which the Iranian government and Mexican drug cartels start working together.

I'm sure the details'll be released but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bit of a lunatic trying to appear more important than he is, with some minor backup to that story.

[Razgovory]

Soo, I can't see why the Iranian state would organize this. What's the edge? Or they can be so amateur that they thought their sponsorship was untracable? Or simply they want hostile action from the US to prop up their failing regime?

That said, I don't think this was a fabricated CB by the Amerikkans, they would have let the bomb explode in that case.

I suspect it answer lies in the nature of the Iranian government.  A combination of Byzantine bureaucracy and competing factions can create bizarre plots and contradictory policies.  Nazi Germany was like that.  They always had agencies at odds with one another coming up with stupid ideas.  It may also relate to the recent covert attacks on Iran's nuclear program.  You and I don't know who's behind it, but the Iranians are probably better informed.  They may suspect it's a joint US-Saudi operation see this ambassador as an important player.  Or at least some of them do.

[Neil]

If Iran kills a hundred civilians in D.C. in a terrorist attack there would be war. How can you possibly dispute it?

The Libyans killed more than that in the Lockerbie bombing, and there was no war.

[The Minsky Moment]

Soo, I can't see why the Iranian state would organize this. What's the edge? Or they can be so amateur that they thought their sponsorship was untracable? Or simply they want hostile action from the US to prop up their failing regime?

"Rogue" operation.
Like Raz alluded to, you can't really view the Iranian government organs as part of a clear, hierachical organization controlled by established rules.  Especially when one is dealing, as here, with people operating out the rambling, parastatal complex that is the Revolutionary Guards organization.

[HisMajestyBOB]

That's my guess as well. There's probably a lot of independent initiative on that guy and likely several others' parts. Probably some guy or guys high enough or connected enough to have access to that sort of money, but not endorsed from on high.

I'm skeptical that Ahmadinejad is connected. OTOH, he could have ordered it, or made some vague "orders" that others ran with, in order to boost his domestic popularity and attempt to increase his authority compared to the Supreme Council. He's not very popular at home.

The US has invaded two countries in the last ten years, and bombed three. That's an unwise calculation.

2003 - US bombs the shit out of Iraq and invades with 150 thousand men destroying the 4th largest army in the world making the fastest advance in military history.
2011 - US lends 80 tomahawks to the UK to shoot at Libya.

I can see a trend there.. can you. Just ask yourself, will the US invade Iran to depose the government?

Libya barely had a military, invasion was completely unnecessary. 80 tomahawks got the job down.

I doubt we'd invade Iran, there'd be a massive air campaign though.

Meanwhile Iran; directly and through Iraqi minions; tries to screw up Iraq and Afghanistan as much as possible while Hisbullah creates serious problems with Israel trying to make the conflict USA and Israel vs Iran and Hisbullah in the arab mind. What makes you think that the USA would be willing to pay that cost just for the benefit of one murdered Saudi diplomat?

Who the hell cares about the diplomat? It's the hundred dead civilians (high class restaurant frequented by congressmen) that would cause a conflict.

Maybe they were trying to improve American public opinion of Iran by killing Congressmen 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Soo, I can't see why the Iranian state would organize this. What's the edge? Or they can be so amateur that they thought their sponsorship was untracable? Or simply they want hostile action from the US to prop up their failing regime?

That said, I don't think this was a fabricated CB by the Amerikkans, they would have let the bomb explode in that case.

I suspect it answer lies in the nature of the Iranian government.  A combination of Byzantine bureaucracy and competing factions can create bizarre plots and contradictory policies.  Nazi Germany was like that.  They always had agencies at odds with one another coming up with stupid ideas.  It may also relate to the recent covert attacks on Iran's nuclear program.  You and I don't know who's behind it, but the Iranians are probably better informed.  They may suspect it's a joint US-Saudi operation see this ambassador as an important player.  Or at least some of them do.

We all know this stuxnet thing will end up being a 4chan prank 

[citizen k]

That's my guess as well. There's probably a lot of independent initiative on that guy and likely several others' parts. Probably some guy or guys high enough or connected enough to have access to that sort of money, but not endorsed from on high.

Iran's supreme leader believed to be behind plot

Ken Dilanian, Paul Richter,Brian Bennett, Tribune Co.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Washington --

U.S. government officials, while initially skeptical that top Iranian government figures were behind a plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, became convinced by the operation's money trail and now consider it likely that the plan was approved by Iran's supreme leader.

"This is the kind of operation - the assassination of a diplomat on foreign soil - that would have been vetted at the highest levels of the Iranian government," said a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive analysis. "We can't prove that, but we do not think it was a rogue operation in any way."

Law enforcement and intelligence officials penetrated the alleged plot from the start. But American officials said Wednesday that what convinced them they were tracking something much more than just idle talk between an Iranian American used car salesman and a Drug Enforcement Administration informant was the transfer of $100,000 from Iran in July and August as a down payment to set the assassination in motion.

It became clear, they said, that the plan really was being orchestrated by the Quds Force, a secretive unit of Iran's military.

"It's very difficult to explain that transfer, which also aligned perfectly with what the informant was telling us, any other way," the senior official said Wednesday.

Officials also said the United States picked up other intelligence that indicated the existence of the plot. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said after a Senate Intelligence Committee briefing that human and signals intelligence had played a role in unraveling the plot.

Feinstein also said that "the intelligence indicates there may be problems elsewhere," adding that there could be threats to Saudi, Israeli or American ambassadors in other countries. "There may be a chain of these things," Feinstein told reporters.

Iran has condemned the allegations as false and "politically motivated."

Iran has a complex government system in which different arms of the government are often in bitter conflict with each other. U.S. officials say the Quds Force, a branch of the Revolutionary Guards, supplies arms and training to insurgents who have killed American troops in Iraq and carries out covert operations, which have included assassinations. The Quds Force reports directly to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, U.S. officials believe.

And a counterargument from an Iranian apologist:

Iran's leaders would not have approved alleged plot

Editor's Note: Geneive Abdo is the Director of the Iran Program at The Century Foundation.

By Geneive Abdo - Special to CNN

Even if it turns out that rogue agents within Iran's Quds Force were behind the foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi and Israeli ambassadors in Washington, it is still highly unlikely that Iran's political leaders were behind this amateurish scheme.

Despite U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder's announcement two days ago that the two Iranian suspects behind the plot were "directed and approved by elements of the Iranian government, and specifically, senior members of the Quds Force," the United States government still has not made the link between the plot and either President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Why? Because it is highly unlikely any of Iran's top political leaders would be involved in such a foolish – not to mention completely counterproductive – attempt to commit violence on U.S. soil. Simply put, this is not how Iran conducts its foreign policy.

When it comes to the United States and Israel, Iran's political leaders remain in varying degrees of fear of a military attack. This plot, if successful, would have been a declaration of war – an act Iran would never initiate. The only significant cooperation Iran has shown over the last decade on its nuclear program, for example, was in 2003 when the country's leaders thought the United States planned to bomb Tehran after Baghdad.

One theory being advanced by some in Washington is that Iran's escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia, particularly in the wake of the Arab uprisings, is behind the plot. But this idea also seems implausible. If Iran wished to confront Saudi Arabia, it could do so over the Saudi's intervention in Bahrain, a country where the majority of people are Shiite Muslims. But despite the Saudi's March invasion, in which thousands of troops entered the tiny kingdom to crush an uprising being waged predominately by the Shias, Iran has remained on the sidelines.

The Saudis have made it clear in the diplomatic public sparring with Iran that any move against it would unleash the entire force of the other states in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Thus, Iran would be forced to face the militaries of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. With all of this at risk, does it make sense to assassinate two ambassadors and kill an unknown number of Americans in Washington DC?

In all the alarm sweeping the country, particularly in Washington, it is important for Americans to understand that Iran's political and military apparatus is just as complicated as that of most countries. The Quds is a professional force which is highly specialized. It has a history of having the most sophisticated terrorism experts. Its commanders are directly under the command of Supreme Leader Khamenei, who has emerged more powerful than ever after a protracted power struggle with President Ahmadinejad and the rogue political faction he leads.

The only possible explanation – if indeed the Quds Force were involved in this plot – is that rogue agents decided to take Iranian foreign policy into their own hands. Such renegades should not serve as an excuse for military action against Iran or to punish Iran's political leaders for a plot that they most likely did not concoct.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Geneive Abdo.

[Viking]

It turns out that the Saudi Ambassador targeted was named in the Wikileaks cables about the Saudi attempt to convince the USA to bomb Iran.

Fuck you Assange.