We've always been at war with Eurasia

[garbon]

An interesting analysis, Otto. 

Too bad he had to insert those anecdotes. Kinda brought it down a peg.

[Neil]

I'm a complex human being.

No to both counts.

[Neil]

An interesting analysis, Otto, but I think the emphasis placed on fertility rate doesn't follow from the facts.  According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate), Canada has a lower fertility rate (1.53 births per woman) than Sweden (1.80), which is the lowest in the Scandi countries.  Yet Canada doesn't seem to suffer the problems you note.

I don't think that link really affects Otto's argument in any way, as the stats are by state, not by ethnic group.

At any rate, Canada generally accepts a higher class of immigrant than Sweden.  The expense alone keeps the lower classes away, although we're always happy to allow highly trained, middle class members of the Third World come here to do menial labour for low wages.

[Valmy]

Yeah 1.80 is almost in the ideal zone (1.9-2.1) and something like 90% of Sweden is still Skandi so maybe the Demographic thing is overblown.  At least the baby making part.

[Valmy]

I don't think that link really affects Otto's argument in any way, as the stats are by state, not by ethnic group.

True but there are not yet enough non-Skandi's in Sweden to drive the numbers that far up.

Well ok I guess if they literally are producing 10 kids per woman.

[grumbler]

Too bad he had to insert those that anecdotes. Kinda brought it down a peg.

There was just the one anecdote (the one with the English women, that said women thought Slargos was gay).  What brings it down, IMO, is the loaded language; immigration is "invasion,"  "right Americans" excludes all poor people (and there seem to be just three groups:  "right Americans"/"middle class and wealthy Americans"; "white trash;" and "poverty-stricken urban blacks"), the claim that 1960s rape laws had penalties that were "like a slap on the wrist," etc.

Post-1960s rape laws in the US, for instance, didn't seem to lessen the penalties at all; what they did was change the definition of the term and the requirements for conviction.  The courts generally started disallowing the death penalty for rape in the 60s (the last execution for rape was in 1964, and the USSC outright banned the practice in 1977), but the big change was that the elements of proof changed; rape accusations could be made by males, the victim was no longer required to physically resist ((and prove that they had), the requirement for immediate reporting of a rape was relaxed, the public airing of the victim's previous sexual activities was no longer allowed as a defense strategy, etc.

So, the basic premises of Otto's analysis are probably false, and that is more damaging than the one anecdote.  But it is a fun read.

[Tamas]

Yeah 1.80 is almost in the ideal zone (1.9-2.1) and something like 90% of Sweden is still Skandi so maybe the Demographic thing is overblown.  At least the baby making part.

What if most of the children are non-skandi?

You Americans have a country where every immigrant has gone to in order to work. Well, almost all. Whereas what we have in Europe, is the natives who have a culture accustomed to work and civilizations, and these immigrant cultures, who were used to basically scavenging as the safest mode of survival in their previous home, and the welfare state allows them to survive with these cultural sentiments intact.
That's pretty much what we have with the gypsies here. I don't think they are evil by genetics or anything, simply they have a culture completely at odds with the majority's, and suckling on the welfare tits allow them to stick to these values.

[Valmy]

Yeah 1.80 is almost in the ideal zone (1.9-2.1) and something like 90% of Sweden is still Skandi so maybe the Demographic thing is overblown.  At least the baby making part.

What if most of the children are non-skandi?

You Americans have a country where every immigrant has gone to in order to work. Well, almost all. Whereas what we have in Europe, is the natives who have a culture accustomed to work and civilizations, and these immigrant cultures, who were used to basically scavenging as the safest mode of survival in their previous home, and the welfare state allows them to survive with these cultural sentiments intact.
That's pretty much what we have with the gypsies here. I don't think they are evil by genetics or anything, simply they have a culture completely at odds with the majority's, and suckling on the welfare tits allow them to stick to these values.

Well as I said I do not think there are enough non-ethnic Swedes to do that.

In any case the second paragraph reflects my point about having a country whose entire existance and raison d'etre is to be an ethnic nation state and then trying to destroy that because, I presume, people living there find that basis distasteful.  But destroying your country's reason for existance is going to be a pretty difficult road.

[Slargos]

I don't have time to get detailed, but a quick google search reveals that in 2001 the Swedish population increased by about 32000.

Of this, 31000 was immigration while the rest was the net difference between births and deaths.

Numbers speak for themselves.

[grumbler]

I don't think that link really affects Otto's argument in any way, as the stats are by state, not by ethnic group.

That does that matter?  If you are going to argue that Otto's "facts" supporting the argument that Swedes will be a minotrity in Sweden in "a few generations" trump facts reported by scientists, you need evidence.  Otherwise, facts trump "facts."

Here is the ethnic breakdown of foreign-born in Sweden, according to Wikipedia's translation of http://www.scb.se/

As of 2010, 1.33 million people or 14.3% of the inhabitants in Sweden were foreign-born.[10] The largest groups were:

    Finland Finland (172,218)
    Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Former Yugoslavia (152,268)
    Iraq (117,919)
    Poland (67,518)
    Iran (59,922)
    Germany (47,803)
    Denmark (46,002)
    Norway (43,819)
    Turkey (40,766)
    Somalia (31,734)

That's what:  250,000 out of 9.5 million that are potentially "Muslim immigrants who pop out 10 babies per couple?"  How can 0.26% of the population grow "in a few generations" to the point where "you will essentially see large portions of Scandinavia and Central Europe essentially fall to an invasion that will be more successful than any that Europeans fought off in heroic battles during the 14th and 15th centuries?"  Let's say "a few" is four.  Let's say "large portions of Scandinavia" is just Sweden, for argument's sake.

How many kids do these "baby-popping" people have to have per generation to grow a population from 250,000 to one equal to the current Swedish one of 7.7 million in four generations?  Do the math.

You can vary "a few" to equal any number you choose.  See what number it takes to make his argument plausible.

[Razgovory]

I'm not good at math.

[Slargos]

How long is a generation? Let's say 20 years.

If the current trend holds steady (instead of increasing rapidly as has been the trend since the 90s) http://www.thelocal.se/15772/20081118/ there will be a net immigration of 3.44 million in 4 generations.

[Valmy]

So you think Sweden will never change its immigration policies?

But also world wide birth rates are going down.  Mercifully.

Still have a long way to go though.

[grumbler]

I don't have time to get detailed, but a quick google search reveals that in 2001 the Swedish population increased by about 32000.

Of this, 31000 was immigration while the rest was the net difference between births and deaths.

Numbers speak for themselves.

The 2010 natural population increase in Sweden was 25,154.*  The total population increase was roughly 80,000*.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden, supposedly translated from http://www.scb.se/, which I cannot independently verify.

Total refugee immigrants in 2010 were 9,901.   
http://www.migrationsverket.se/download/18.46b604a812cbcdd7dba80008288/Beviljade+uppeh%C3%A5llstillst%C3%A5nd+och+registrerade+uppeh%C3%A5llsr%C3%A4tter+2010.pdf

Again, how do these 9,901 people outbreed the non-gay Swedes?

[grumbler]

How long is a generation? Let's say 20 years.

If the current trend holds steady (instead of increasing rapidly as has been the trend since the 90s) http://www.thelocal.se/15772/20081118/ there will be a net immigration of 3.44 million in 4 generations.

But at current trends these will be immigrants from other areas of Europe, not ""Muslim immigrants who pop out 10 babies per couple."