The Crisis in Yemen; Will There Be Civil War?

[jimmy olsen]

It's not looking good to put it charitably. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576343580750549362.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_world

Fighting Spurs Fears of War in Yemen
    * MIDDLE EAST NEWS
    * MAY 25, 2011

By HAKIM ALMASMARI in San'a, Yemen, MARGARET COKER in Dubai and ADAM ENTOUS in Washington

Yemen edged closer to civil war on Tuesday as opposition fighters seized government buildings and Washington stepped up pressure on the embattled president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to step aside.

The deteriorating security situation in the capital, San'a, fueled U.S. and European fears about the safety of embassy staff and of a broader conflict that the government might not be able to dial back. Western counterterrorism officials say the instability gives Yemen-based al Qaeda militants greater freedom to plot attacks.

At least two of the country's leading tribal dignitaries were killed when missiles struck the compound of Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar, the leader of Yemen's largest tribe, who is supporting the opposition's calls for Mr. Saleh to leave office. A group of tribal elders had gathered in the compound to try to broker a cease-fire between his Hashid tribesmen and pro-Saleh security forces.

An aide to Sheikh Ahmar said at least five other tribal elders were wounded in the missile strike. The Hashids blamed the strike on the government's Central Security forces, which are under the command of President Saleh's nephew.

Sheikh Ahmar himself wasn't injured.

A senior Ministry of Interior official accused the Hashid tribesman of fomenting civil war and said gunmen loyal to Sheikh Ahmar killed 14 government troops Tuesday.

Hashid tribesmen have seized control of the main Ministry of Interior building as well as the Ministry of Education, located in the center of the capital, residents said. Hundreds of additional men from the Hashid clan were expected to descend on San'a later Tuesday evening, preparing for further battles.

"I fear it's begun," said Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, of widespread violence that could lead to civil war.

The missile attack against Sheikh Ahmar hardened tribal opposition to the president, whom the tribal elders trying to mediate the crisis accused of flaunting the basic rules of their tribal culture.

Most of Yemen's major tribes were involved in the cease-fire negotiations—including the head of the president's own clan—and mediators said they had spoken to the president by phone multiple times ahead of the attack.

"We are assured now that Saleh does not want to stop the chaos and attacks," one of the mediators said.

To the chagrin of the Obama administration, Mr. Saleh has repeatedly balked at signing an Arab-brokered deal that would end his 33 years in power and give him immunity from prosecution.

John Brennan, the White House's top counterterrorism adviser, warned Mr. Saleh in a telephone call over the weekend that "we're going to have to consider possible other steps" if he refuses to sign the pact, an administration official said.

Officials said the White House was considering using the United Nations to press Mr. Saleh to step aside. The effort, under discussion among the U.S. and its Arab and European partners, would likely begin with coordinated statements at the U.N. calling on Mr. Saleh to agree to the Arab-sponsored transition deal.

If Mr. Saleh refuses to step down and the clashes intensify, the U.S. and its allies could consider additional steps, including targeted sanctions against the president, his family or others, if they are deemed to be involved in the crackdowns, officials said.

The moves by the U.S. reflect a dramatic about-face in relations with Mr. Saleh, whom the Obama administration until recently courted as an important ally against al Qaeda.

The Pentagon has sharply increased support for Mr. Saleh's security forces, providing them with arms and counterterrorism training to help combat al Qaeda's most active affiliate, Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Mr. Saleh's son and two nephews command the elite units that have been the primary beneficiaries of U.S. training and funding.

Any possible sanctions against the Yemeni government would likely be aimed at individuals to avoid worsening the country's already dire economic situation.

The U.S. has pushed for similar sanctions against leaders in Libya and Syria, but it isn't clear to what extent Mr. Saleh has been personally ordering the crackdown in his country.

"What we don't want to do is take action that will hurt the Yemeni people," an Obama administration official said. U.S. humanitarian aid and counterterrorism support would continue because "these are meant to help the Yemeni people, not help Saleh personally," the official added.

At the same time, the official said, "We think it's in everyone's interest for Saleh to go."

[Tamas]

What's the terrain there?

I am asking because: why should we care? If some local version of the Taliban takes over, the US could bomb any training camps they discover into oblivion, can't they? Yemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources

[Caliga]

Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position.  For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Another failed state is yet more recruitment potential for the terrorists, also more piracy in that important shipping zone. That's apart from any altruistic interest we might have in the well-being of 25m people.

I'm not optimistic, they are breeding like rabbits and are pretty close to a Malthusian trap.

[Razgovory]

I thought they already were in civil war.

[The Brain]

Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position.  For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.

And stretches of Betty-Boop.

[KRonn]

Another failed state is yet more recruitment potential for the terrorists, also more piracy in that important shipping zone. That's apart from any altruistic interest we might have in the well-being of 25m people.

I'm not optimistic, they are breeding like rabbits and are pretty close to a Malthusian trap.

Agreed. And a radical type govt could come to power, to further mess things up.

[Neil]

Yemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources

It's this sort of strategic insight that assured Hungary a place next to Italy in the annals of modern warfare.

[Tamas]

Yemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources

It's this sort of strategic insight that assured Hungary a place next to Italy in the annals of modern warfare.

I am just growing tired of worrying about all these camelfuckers and their Polack-like inability to maintain a functional state.

[Martim Silva]

I thought they already were in civil war.

Correct, it started in 2004 with the rebellion of the Northern tribes.

What we have now is an expansion.

What's the terrain there?

In the interior, arid/desert tiles. In the West, lush farmland/palm tiles.

It has some oil, but also deposits of metals, from Nickel to Gold.

Much trade with Africa, though of limited volume (Yemen is a sh*thole for us, but a paradise for the Somalis and Sudanese).

[jimmy olsen]

I thought they already were in civil war.

Correct, it started in 2004 with the rebellion of the Northern tribes.

What we have now is an expansion.

What's the terrain there?

In the interior, arid/desert tiles. In the West, lush farmland/palm tiles.

It has some oil, but also deposits of metals, from Nickel to Gold.

Much trade with Africa, though of limited volume (Yemen is a sh*thole for us, but a paradise for the Somalis and Sudanese).

Aren't they running out of water and oil?

New article. All nonessential diplomatic staff ordered out by the US.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43176472/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

[jimmy olsen]

Fighting's really heating up.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43277769/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

Thousands flee Sanaa after attack on Yemen's President Saleh

Leader survives assault on palace; top officials flown to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment

msnbc.com news services
updated 1 hour 10 minutes ago

   
SANAA, Yemen — Thousands fled Sanaa on Saturday a day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh was wounded in an attack on his compound that marked a new stage in fighting which has brought Yemen closer to civil war.

Saleh's forces retaliated by shelling the homes of the leaders of a powerful tribal federation fighting an urban battle to oust Saleh.

The clashes have killed nearly 200 people over the last two weeks and turned areas of Sanaa into ghost towns after residents fled for safety.

Global powers are worried that Yemen, home to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and bordering the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, could become a failed state, raising risks for regional security and Gulf oil shipments.

Several officials were injured and seven killed when shells hit a mosque in the presidential palace, state media said. A senior diplomat said the prime minister, his deputy, the parliament speaker and other aides were hurt in the attack.

On Saturday, five top members of the government were sent to Saudi Arabia for treatment of wounds they suffered in the attack, the official government news agency reported.

Saleh, a tenacious political survivor who has clung to power for nearly 33 years, said in an audio address late on Friday that an "outlaw gang" was behind the attack, which he blamed on the Hashed tribe led by Sadeq al-Ahmar. A tribal spokesman denied responsibility.

"I salute our armed forces and the security forces for standing up firmly to confront this challenge by an outlaw gang that has nothing to do with the so-called youth revolution," Saleh said. "Seven officers were martyred."

The deputy information minister said that Saleh, 69, had suffered minor injuries but was in good health. The president has not been seen in public since the attack.

'Bullets everywhere'
Tribal and medical officials said Saturday that 10 tribesmen were killed and 35 injured in overnight fighting in Sanaa's Hassaba neighborhood, headquarters of opposition Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar. A tribal leader said street fighting lasted until dawn. Many of the compound's buildings and surrounding houses have already been heavily damaged by days of bombardment.

Government and rebel forces exchanged rocket fire, damaging a contested police station. The rockets rained down on streets housing government buildings that had been taken over by tribesmen.

Intermittent blasts and sporadic fire fights with automatic weapons punctuated the predawn hours and roads were clogged when the sun rose by civilians trying to flee the fighting that has engulfed more parts of the city.

"Bullets are everywhere, explosions terrified us. There's no chance to stay anymore," said Sanaa resident Ali Ahmed.

Nearly 400 people have been killed since a popular uprising against Saleh began in January, inspired by the movements in Tunisia and Egypt that toppled their long-standing leaders.

The battles are being fought on several fronts, with popular protests in several cities and military units breaking away from Saleh to protect the protesters.

There has also been a nearly week-long campaign in Zinjibar by locals and Saleh's soldiers to oust Islamist and al-Qaida militants who seized the southern coastal city near a shipping lane where about 3 million barrels of oil pass daily.

Saleh has exasperated his former U.S. and Saudi allies who had once seen him as a key partner in efforts to combat al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Defying world pressure, Saleh has thrice reneged on a deal brokered by Gulf states for him to quit in return for immunity from prosecution, even as he loses support at home.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[Admiral Yi]

Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position.  For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.

And stretches of Betty-Boop.

Within striking distance of both the Baba Ganoush and the Howie Mandel.

[jamesww]

Yemeni President, Saleh, has 'fled' to Saudi Arabia for treatment to the injuries he sustained during the shelling of his residence.

VP has taken over, AJ are reporting he's seeking to scale back the confrontation with the fighters of the most powerful tribes.

[Razgovory]

I dunno, but it seems that posting a topic on possible Civil War in Yemen is like posting on possible corruption in Russia.