Game of Thrones begins....

[Viking]

at which point Ned realizes that Joffrey is literal as well as a figurative bastard. Had he not realized this then. The next day he talks to Cersei about encouraging her to run. And before the ships are ready to sail three days later Robert is dead and Ned in the black cells.

If Sansa doesn't come south, Ned crowns Joffrey and is Regent.

Sounds more like Ned serves as Robert's Hand.

How does Sansa not being in KL keep Robert from getting drunk while hunting?

[Eddie Teach]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-GSOHCVPfA

[grumbler]

How does Sansa not being in KL keep Robert from getting drunk while hunting?

That's just the means, not the cause, of the King's death.  To imagine that Cersei wouldn't have killed Robert even without the impulse of saving her children from the revelation about their sire is illogical.  She hated him for many reasons unrelated to Ned's investigations, as Littlefinger well knew.  Robert was a dead man walking from before the start of the show.  The key event is the death of Ned, not the death of Robert.

[Berkut]

Sansa's comment might have been the catalyst for Ned pulling it all together, but Littefinger very carefully laid out all the crumbs for him. He was going to find out.

[Viking]

OK, sansa doesn't go south and Robert dies from being drunk while hunting (this is what he was doing anyways - as a means of assassination it requires quite a bit of cooperation from the intended target). Ned crowns Joffrey and rules as Regent according to Robert's will. Cersei rips it up because ned warned her. That is the mercy varys talked about. With Joffrey as King, Ned as regent, made king by neds own hand, all before realizing that joffrey is a bastard. Sansa going south means that he finds out before becoming regent rather than after becoming regent. Ned dies because he desperately tries to avoid killing the children.

[Berkut]

If Ned doesn't find out when he did, LF would make sure he found out shortly afterwards.

[grumbler]

OK, sansa doesn't go south and Robert dies from being drunk while hunting (this is what he was doing anyways - as a means of assassination it requires quite a bit of cooperation from the intended target). Ned crowns Joffrey and rules as Regent according to Robert's will. Cersei rips it up because ned warned her. That is the mercy varys talked about. With Joffrey as King, Ned as regent, made king by neds own hand, all before realizing that joffrey is a bastard. Sansa going south means that he finds out before becoming regent rather than after becoming regent. Ned dies because he desperately tries to avoid killing the children.

By the time Robert dies, Ned had already figured out that Robert was not the father of Joffrey and his sibs.  Why?  Because Littlefinger had led him to the truth.  All the clues Ned follows are from Baelish.  Why does Baelish provide the clues?  To force the lannisters to turn on Ned, because Baelish wants Ned dead and Cat a widow.  That Baelish could also make himself a power worthy of Cat's eventual love was just part of the scheme.

Ned's mercy is immaterial. Sansa's indiscretion is immaterial.  In fact, Robert's death was immaterial, except as a means of giving Cersei the power to deal with Ned.  What was material is that Littlefinger made Ned a mortal threat to Cersei, and she was ruthless enough to take him out.  Whether Robert died in the process wasn't key, though it opened the door to a war that allowed Baelish to shortcut his already-rapid rise to power.

[Josquius]

Interesting take on the series, and it makes perfect sense. It's all about a nerd trying to finally score with his high school crush....

[grumbler]

Interesting take on the series, and it makes perfect sense. It's all about a nerd trying to finally score with his high school crush....

Furthermore, he forced Ned to play a game he was bad at (the Game of Thrones) and forced Ned to realize how bad he was at LF's game.  How gratifying it must have been for LF to tell Ned "I did warn you not to trust me!" It's like the nerd traps the star athlete into a game of chess to decide who takes the star cheerleader to the prom.

[garbon]

The bit that I don't get is...Katelyn is going to just run into LF's arms with her husband dead?

[grumbler]

The bit that I don't get is...Katelyn is going to just run into LF's arms with her husband dead?

That doesn't seem likely.  The bit I don't get is... why that would be at all significant.  LF plays a deep and long-range game.  He has time to make himself into the kind of lord that Katelyn would want on her son's side, and then LF has his opening.

Remember that he thinks Katelyn wanted to marry him, but couldn't do so for dynastic reasons.  He thinks he is going to prosper enough in the chaos to make her want HIM for dynastic reasons.

[Josephus]

She will need a man...and they had history togethere, didn't they?

[Berkut]

The bit that I don't get is...Katelyn is going to just run into LF's arms with her husband dead?

That doesn't seem likely.  The bit I don't get is... why that would be at all significant.  LF plays a deep and long-range game.  He has time to make himself into the kind of lord that Katelyn would want on her son's side, and then LF has his opening.

Remember that he thinks Katelyn wanted to marry him, but couldn't do so for dynastic reasons.  He thinks he is going to prosper enough in the chaos to make her want HIM for dynastic reasons.

I think it is also reasonable to note that regardless of how smart LF is when it comes to nearly everything, that doesn't mean he has a clue about his own emotions and how someone like Katelyn might react to changing circumstances.

He strikes me as the classic brilliant genius who doesn't necessarily realize that not everyone can be manipulated in the manner he thinks, and while he might be able to arrange the death of Ned Stark, that doesn't mean that people he thinks will react in a particular manner to that situation WILL react in that manner.

And when it comes to Katelyn, he has been deluding himself for a long, long time. He really thought fighting a duel would win her over. He probaby is not really capable of accepting that Catelyn would never love him, especially the man he has become. Whatever feelings she may have had for the boy who was willing to engage in a hopeless duel for her are not likely to translate into attraction for a man as devious and underhanded as he has become.

[grumbler]

I think it is also reasonable to note that regardless of how smart LF is when it comes to nearly everything, that doesn't mean he has a clue about his own emotions and how someone like Katelyn might react to changing circumstances.

He strikes me as the classic brilliant genius who doesn't necessarily realize that not everyone can be manipulated in the manner he thinks, and while he might be able to arrange the death of Ned Stark, that doesn't mean that people he thinks will react in a particular manner to that situation WILL react in that manner.

And when it comes to Katelyn, he has been deluding himself for a long, long time. He really thought fighting a duel would win her over. He probaby is not really capable of accepting that Catelyn would never love him, especially the man he has become. Whatever feelings she may have had for the boy who was willing to engage in a hopeless duel for her are not likely to translate into attraction for a man as devious and underhanded as he has become.

I quite agree.  Further, he could be deluding himself into thinking he is amassing power for romantic reasons, to avoid really looking at his own real motivations.  he was born a very minor noble, and has always wanted to be seen as a great lord.  Fomenting chaos is the only way he can get what he really wants, but just getting the power he craves for its own sake is a pretty despicable motive for causing the suffering he has caused.

Though, on the other hand, his brutal treatment of Dontos and Lysa may indicate he really doesn't care how he is seen by others or himself.

I guess we will find out.

[Viking]

The bit that I don't get is...Katelyn is going to just run into LF's arms with her husband dead?

LF is being delusional, he still seems to have convinced himself that when he fucked Lysa he was actually fucking Catelyn.