[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Oexmelin]

I get a kick out of hearing some media outlets saying that now Harper is going to be forced to play to his core supporters who are the media tells us are a bunch of hardcore rightwing loonies.

Who is saying that?? Harper doesn't "have" to do anything. If there is one thing he has proven, it is that he know how to govern his party. Plus, from what I can tell, the Ontario conservatives aren't really of the creationist/evangelical persuasion - precisely those "core supporters" that some fear (I recall the minister for science and technology's answer about his religious belief when questioned about evolution...)

As for some of the new conservatives from Ontario, some of them seem *gasp* competent - quite unlike the bunch of morons we had in Quebec.

As for the core supporters, at least from here, they were those who let things out relating to

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it'll be another point of interest how the Conservatives handle Quebec, given it's primarily represented by the NDP at this point.

If he takes the long view, he'll attempt to make inroads into Quebec at all costs. This election gave him a majority under unusual circumstances - a collapse of libs in Ontario - that he can't count on in the future: he will need to expand holdings in Quebec if he expects a majority next time.

I dont think so.  I dont think anyone, looking at the long game, would try to make inroads in Quebec, at all costs.  Reaonable accomodation is one thing but all costs is quite another and any politician who engaged in that would run the risk Layton currently risks of only being electable in Quebec.

As an example the local talk shows are abuzz about all the promises Layton made in Quebec and how he is going to be able to champion those without losing support in the rest of the country.  FYI trade unionists around here are not exactly the model of tolerant discourse toward Quebec.

[Habbaku]

[Oexmelin]

I dont think so.  I dont think anyone, looking at the long game, would try to make inroads in Quebec, at all costs. 

This. Plus, I think, even looking at the long game, the Libs aren't quite a threat. If Harper cuts the funding, he will have even more time to build up his base of support in Ontario.

[crazy canuck]

I get a kick out of hearing some media outlets saying that now Harper is going to be forced to play to his core supporters who are the media tells us are a bunch of hardcore rightwing loonies.

Who is saying that?? Harper doesn't "have" to do anything. If there is one thing he has proven, it is that he know how to govern his party. Plus, from what I can tell, the Ontario conservatives aren't really of the creationist/evangelical persuasion (and some of them seem *gasp* competent - quite unlike the bunch of morons we had in Quebec).

There was an editorial I heard on a local news station called CKNW and I have heard the sentiment a few times on the local CBC station.

[Malthus]

I dont think so.  I dont think anyone, looking at the long game, would try to make inroads in Quebec, at all costs.  Reaonable accomodation is one thing but all costs is quite another and any politician who engaged in that would run the risk Layton currently risks of only being electable in Quebec.

As an example the local talk shows are abuzz about all the promises Layton made in Quebec and how he is going to be able to champion those without losing support in the rest of the country.  FYI trade unionists around here are not exactly the model of tolerant discourse toward Quebec.

Harper has to expand his Quebc holdings, though. He can't rely on having a lock on Ontario. What flipped to him could just as easily flip back to the libs. 

Add to that the fact that the NDP will be more or less forced to take over the Bloc's job of pushing for Quebec, and the threat that if Quebec is not getting anything more out of federalism having "engaged", it may ignite the now-more-quiescent seperatists - and it adds up to a political narrative that will I think require the cons to concede more to Quebec than formerly.

I agree "at all costs" was going too far, but "moreso than formerly" isn't.

[crazy canuck]

I still dont agree Malthus.  Good moderate government got him the majority.  Keeping that status quo seems to be the plan. At least that is the platform on which he was elected.

Sure the Liberals could become recover in Ontario.  But they are going to have a tough time doing that if Harper doesnt give the voters in Ontario a reason to switch back.  That combined with lack of funding and no viable leader on the horizen make the Liberal climb back a tough one indeed.  Not impossible of course. It took a long time for the Conservatives to recover but now look at them.

[Grey Fox]

Are Ontario voters fickle? I see them switching easily. The center-right voter saw the Libs going nowhere & didn't want to vote for the NPD. Next time, it might not be the case.

[Jacob]

I get a kick out of hearing some media outlets saying that now Harper is going to be forced to play to his core supporters who are the media tells us are a bunch of hardcore rightwing loonies.

I am not sure why the media (and others) have the impression that the Conservative majority is build on a core of the right wing fringe.  I think it takes only a moment on thoughtful reflection to understand that Harper is successful because he moderated the Conservatives and that in fact his "core" are people a lot like me.

Yes I am certainly to the right of Zoupa (who isnt) but I am no social conservative (in the evil hidden agenda sense of that word) and I doubt many people who voted conservative in this election are either.

So tell me, who is the evil core of support everyone is worried about?

If you don't know, maybe it's... *drumroll*... you! 

Admit it CC, you and Malthus have weekly skype sessions about your hidden social conservative agenda!

[Malthus]

Are Ontario voters fickle? I see them switching easily. The center-right voter saw the Libs going nowhere & didn't want to vote for the NPD. Next time, it might not be the case.

Exactly my point.

Yes, those voters are fickle. They have no deep love for the cons.

[Barrister]

So tell me, who is the evil core of support everyone is worried about?

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

[katmai]

So tell me, who is the evil core of support everyone is worried about?

duh,

Beeb and Neil for starters.
I know I wouldn't trust my hypothetical children with either of them.

[Malthus]

So tell me, who is the evil core of support everyone is worried about?

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

Hmmm - keep a majority gov't by keeping his gains in Ontario and expanding in Quebec, or piss off some little old ladies?

I think he'll do what he's done before - make some sympathetic noises, and quietly forget these issues. Pushing them can only cost him votes.

[Barrister]

So tell me, who is the evil core of support everyone is worried about?

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

Hmmm - keep a majority gov't by keeping his gains in Ontario and expanding in Quebec, or piss off some little old ladies?

I think he'll do what he's done before - make some sympathetic noises, and quietly forget these issues. Pushing them can only cost him votes.

Probably.  I'm just saying he can't ignore them entirely.

Remember where Harper comes from, both geographically, and historically.  He's an Alberta politician.  In Alberta, the risk is a new party from the right, not the Liberals or NDP.  That is what is facing the Alberta PC Party right now.

And remember he came from the Reform Party - which in part attacked and destroyed the Federal PC Party for not being right-wing enough.

[Gaius Marius]

Yeah, it'll be another point of interest how the Conservatives handle Quebec, given it's primarily represented by the NDP at this point.

If he takes the long view, he'll attempt to make inroads into Quebec at all costs. This election gave him a majority under unusual circumstances - a collapse of libs in Ontario - that he can't count on in the future: he will need to expand holdings in Quebec if he expects a majority next time.

if you can govern in a majority without more seats in Quebec than you have now, not too much reason to look desperate for support there. Agreed on the second count - if the pundits are right that there was a 3% switch of voters from Lib to Con in Ontario and elsewhere to halt a surging NDP, they might go back to a more competently-lead Lib party in a heartbeat if the NDP is receding or in danger of swallowing up the Liberal party via moderating to the center of the political spectrum.