[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

Canadians think Carney will do a better job than Poilievre with Trump.

That is what the next election is going to be all about.  The Conservatives are going to have to figure out how to make their leader less Trumpy or the liberals are going to walk to a majority. Sidenote, it is pretty clear now that Carney will win the leadership contest.  Oh, how quickly politics can change.

From the Globe

A poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News by Nanos Research between Jan. 31 and Feb. 3 found that 39.6 per cent of Canadians surveyed consider Mr. Carney, the front-runner for the Liberal leadership, as the most qualified leader to negotiate with Mr. Trump and his administration. Twenty-six per cent of Canadians consider Mr. Poilievre as best qualified.

The Libs leadership race is rigged in his.favor though.  they have a race to keep the appearance while everything has.been decided.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Looks like Trump to announce tariffs on steel and aluminum tomorrow.

From Everywhere. That's kind of crazy. Aluminium plants take years to get going.

It will make a large variety of US finished goods less competitive 

Though I have noticed that steel plants are particularly iconic in the "we don't make anything any more" narrative.

[crazy canuck]

Looks like Trump to announce tariffs on steel and aluminum tomorrow.

From Everywhere. That's kind of crazy. Aluminium plants take years to get going.

It will make a large variety of US finished goods less competitive 

Though I have noticed that steel plants are particularly iconic in the "we don't make anything any more" narrative.

It is a repeat of the tariff he imposed in his first presidency.

That time it lasted a year, imports into the US dropped by something like 40%, and when US consumers of Canadian aluminum and steel felt the pain, the tariffs were removed.

So this is more like insanity-doing the same thing again and hoping for a different result.

[viper37]

It will make a large variety of US finished goods less competitive 

Hypothetically speaking, if someone had already some plants set up and active in a foreign country ready to take over production for automobile production and spacecraft, he'd be in a good position to buy out such struggling manufacturers, even more so if some of them are cut out from government subsidies and contracts.

[viper37]

PP who frown at being compared to Trump now wants to cut Canada's foreign aid to shore up Arctic defense.
I guess that includes cutting all aid to Ukraine too?

Walk like a duck...

[Neil]

On the one hand, the two specific cuts that I saw mentioned were UNRWA and AIIB, two things which are highly worthy of cutting.  On the other hand, an Arctic military presence is going to cost a lot more annually than what Canada is spending on those particular programs.  I'd like to know what other programs might be put on the chopping block, although I'm not going to jump to conclusions that Ukraine aid would be cut. 

[crazy canuck]

On the one hand, the two specific cuts that I saw mentioned were UNRWA and AIIB, two things which are highly worthy of cutting.  On the other hand, an Arctic military presence is going to cost a lot more annually than what Canada is spending on those particular programs.  I'd like to know what other programs might be put on the chopping block, although I'm not going to jump to conclusions that Ukraine aid would be cut. 

Yeah, our foreign aid budget is 6.9 billion. We are about 20 billion short to meet our 2% target.  And cutting all foreign aid would mean cutting aid to Ukraine, which (I would hope) would be unthinkable.

[Jacob]

Poilievre says that if Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, Canada should impose similar tariffs on steel and aluminium imported from the US.

My question is: does Canada import much in the way of steel and aluminium from the US?

[HVC]

Poilievre says that if Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, Canada should impose similar tariffs on steel and aluminium imported from the US.

My question is: does Canada import much in the way of steel and aluminium from the US?

The Canada-U.S. economy is deeply integrated, with $20 billion worth of steel traded between the two countries every year. Canada imports 39% of its steel from the U.S., while exporting 94% of its production there, and American manufacturers rely heavily on Canadian steel to run their operations.

From USW.ca so not insignificant, but would still hurt us more.

[Jacob]

Looks like 41% of our aluminium imports come from the US.

[Barrister]

Poilievre says that if Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, Canada should impose similar tariffs on steel and aluminium imported from the US.

My question is: does Canada import much in the way of steel and aluminium from the US?

Right from the source:

The Canada-U.S. economy is deeply integrated, with $20 billion worth of steel traded between the two countries every year. Canada imports 39% of its steel from the U.S., while exporting 94% of its production there, and American manufacturers rely heavily on Canadian steel to run their operations. In 2024, Canada exported $15.9 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S., making it by far the largest supplier to U.S. industries, and imported $4.1 billion, supporting thousands of jobs across the border.

https://usw.ca/united-steelworkers-union-condemns-trumps-reckless-tariffs-on-canadian-steel-and-aluminum/#:~:text=The%20Canada%2DU.S.%20economy%20is,steel%20to%20run%20their%20operations.

During Trump 45 we of course retaliated on his steel tariffs with tariffs on other goods.

Now however this is in the context of the 30 day "pause" on global US tariffs on Canadian goods.  The risk would be if we started imposing tariffs on, I dunno, Kentucky bourbon (I think that's one area we tariffed before) in response to steel tariffs we increase the risk of a wider US response.


(Ninja'd by HVC)

[crazy canuck]

I am not sure how the union is doing it's math.  We don't export 94% of our production of steel to the US.

It's more like half of our production.  We use it too...  And the amount we import is due to local market conditions. Most Canadian Steel is produced in the East, so there are more practical sources closer to home in the US for the Western provinces.


Edit: you guys are jumping on the first thing that pops up in your google search, and repeating it as if it was some kind of authoritative truth.  Rather than repeat my condemnation of us dumbing ourselves down, just take it as read.

[viper37]

On the one hand, the two specific cuts that I saw mentioned were UNRWA and AIIB, two things which are highly worthy of cutting.  On the other hand, an Arctic military presence is going to cost a lot more annually than what Canada is spending on those particular programs.  I'd like to know what other programs might be put on the chopping block, although I'm not going to jump to conclusions that Ukraine aid would be cut. 

And how much do Canadians company get back in contracts from these aid programs?

[crazy canuck]

On the one hand, the two specific cuts that I saw mentioned were UNRWA and AIIB, two things which are highly worthy of cutting.  On the other hand, an Arctic military presence is going to cost a lot more annually than what Canada is spending on those particular programs.  I'd like to know what other programs might be put on the chopping block, although I'm not going to jump to conclusions that Ukraine aid would be cut. 

And how much do Canadians company get back in contracts from these aid programs?

I would assume nothing.

[viper37]

On the one hand, the two specific cuts that I saw mentioned were UNRWA and AIIB, two things which are highly worthy of cutting.  On the other hand, an Arctic military presence is going to cost a lot more annually than what Canada is spending on those particular programs.  I'd like to know what other programs might be put on the chopping block, although I'm not going to jump to conclusions that Ukraine aid would be cut. 

And how much do Canadians company get back in contracts from these aid programs?

I would assume nothing.

I would assume a little more.
Here's one example