[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Sheilbh]

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

Yes - although that's increasingly rare. As I mentioned elsewhere, until Cameron entered the Lords to become Foreign Secretary the last PM to go into the Lords was Thatcher. Major, Blair, Brown and Johnson are all out of Parliament - cynically you might suggest that's so they don't have to declare their earnings.

Staying an MP was rarer but we have May and Truss. I very much doubt Sunak will stay as an MP or enter the Lords.

I think there is a question about this for Western democracies (except the US), because our leaders have become younger. Tony Blair was 54 when he left office, Schroeder 61 - Macron will be 50, Sunak's likely to be 45. These are men (generally) who are young enough and healthy enough to have kept working and they probably feel (definitely in the case of Blair) at the peak of their powers as a leader (as in they know better how to get things done the longer they're in office).

I think this is part of the wider lack of trust in politics is that I think these are active, healthy, working-age leaders suddenly with lots of time on their hands which I think leads to those ill-advised post-politics consulting gigs for dodgy clients, or questionable NGOs/"foundations". Obviously there's a hierarchy within that. I think this role of a young former head of government/state is a relatively recent phenomenon. But they are a resource for current Western leaders that we should maybe think about because I think the current model looks (and sometimes, perhaps, is) corrupt in a way that I think is harmful to politics.

Edit: In a way I wonder if it would be worth creating a formal quasi-constitutional role - full financial transparency, but you get paid and are a formal resource for current leaders (informally, especially with big foreign policy decisions, PMs will call previous PMs for advice as the only other people who've done the job).

[Valmy]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

Well if he was an American President I would presume he would work on creating his official library, be the chairman of his charity foundation, and serve on the boards of his former corporate supporters.

[crazy canuck]

Don't even think his replacement would do much better. 

Quite possibly not.  A lot of it is baked in right now.

But there is a model to follow.  New leader is elected.  They bring in a new cabinet, have a budget with some new and different policies to pursue - then call an election to try and run on the new plan, and not just defending the last 10 years.

Yes, and the goal now for the liberals is to have at least enough of a party left so that they can fight the  election after this one.

What the polling results show is that if Trudeau stays, the liberals will be destroyed to the point that it could take a while to rebuild the party.

It won't be PC level destruction, but it will be close.

Are you sure?  Current projection would be 70 seats, which still makes them official opposition.

It not only wouldn't be PC levels of destruction, but the Liberals suffered worse defeats in 1984 (40 seats) and 2011 (34 seats).

Read the article I posted just before we started this discussion.  70 seats would be a very rosy outcome.

[crazy canuck]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

Well if he was an American President I would presume he would work on creating his official library, be the chairman of his charity foundation, and serve on the boards of his former corporate supporters.

His father already set up a charity foundation, and it is one of the problems that the current Trudeau has as it is mired in controversy.

[Grey Fox]

Liberals are still not campaigning.

[Valmy]

His father already set up a charity foundation, and it is one of the problems that the current Trudeau has as it is mired in controversy.

That doesn't surprise me. Those things are just as much tax shelters as charitable organizations.

[Barrister]

Read the article I posted just before we started this discussion.  70 seats would be a very rosy outcome.

Article starts to say it's been gifted, but then won't load.

Care to post an excerpt?

[crazy canuck]

Here you go  - I don't feel guilty about reproducing it since I used one of my gift links on it 

OPINION

Liberals face political oblivion with Trudeau at the helm

John Ibbitson
JOHN IBBITSON
INCLUDES CORRECTION
PUBLISHED 7 HOURS AGO
UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS
568 COMMENTS

More than a decade ago, Justin Trudeau took a dispirited, strife-torn, third-place Liberal Party and recreated it in his own image, winning election after election after election. There are few voices of dissent within the party because the voices who matter all matter because of him.

But the latest polls show the Liberals headed for, not just defeat, but decimation in the next federal election. Even the most die-hard Trudeau loyalist must be starting to wonder whether it's time for a change at the top.

The Conservatives opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals last summer and have held it ever since. That lead may even be growing. A poll released on the weekend by Abacus Data for the Toronto Star shows the Tories ahead of the Grits in the popular vote by 19 percentage points – 43 per cent to 24 per cent – with the NDP at 18 per cent.

Data Dive with Nik Nanos: 2023 was a historically bad year for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals

The Liberals are in third place in the Prairies and in British Columbia. The Tories have more than 50-per-cent support in Atlantic Canada and lead the Liberals by 14 points in Ontario. But here's the truly amazing number: Abacus has the two parties statistically tied in the historically Liberal bastion of Quebec, with the Bloc Québécois at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 26 and the Liberals at 25.

(The online survey of 2,398 adults was conducted Feb. 1-7, with a comparable margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

Provincial sample sizes are small, with a greater margin of error than the overall national count. That's why a Léger poll released last week is so important. An online sampling of 1,032 Quebec voters released earlier this month showed the Bloc Québécois at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent.

That's two polls showing the Conservatives competitive with the Liberals in Quebec. What does that mean?

It means that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would lose most of their 24 seats in Atlantic Canada and at least some of their 34 seats in Quebec.

The Conservatives would eat heavily into Liberal strongholds in suburban Ontario and B.C., while the NDP could steal seats from them in the downtowns. The Prairies would remain a Liberal desert.

There are Liberals who believe Mr. Trudeau is the best leader to save the furniture, as the saying goes – that even in the event of a defeat in the next election, the Prime Minister would preserve the Liberal base for a successor to build upon. Those who think that need to reconsider.

The Liberals under Mr. Trudeau face a historic drubbing, one that could rival the calamities of 1958, 1984 or 2011. And polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like "naive wishful thinking."

"The Conservatives already have their winning coalition of voters," he posted Sunday. Barring anything egregious, that vote is now locked in.

So is it time for Mr. Trudeau to step down? Voters appear to think so.

In his poll for The Globe and Mail, released Monday, Nik Nanos has 46 per cent of Canadians saying Mr. Trudeau has done a poor job as Liberal Leader, compared with 25 per cent who rate his performance as excellent. When asked how the Liberals could best increase their chances of winning the next election, 39 per cent said the answer is to replace Mr. Trudeau. Only 3 per cent thought the party's best option is for him to stay.

(The hybrid phone and online survey of 1,114 adults was conducted between Jan. 29-31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

One of the most important jobs of a political leader is to leave their party in decent shape for their successor. Stephen Harper not only reunited the conservative movement and provided almost 10 years of government, he left the Conservative Party with solid finances and 99 seats in the House after his 2015 election loss.

Mr. Trudeau has a duty to bequeath a healthy Liberal Party to the next leader. He must ask himself honestly whether remaining at the helm of the party best ensures that outcome. Most voters appear to have reached their own conclusions.

Editor's note: A previous version of this article incorrectly referred to the Bloc Québécois as the Parti Québécois. This version has been updated.

[crazy canuck]

Liberals are still not campaigning.

"polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like "naive wishful thinking"

[Barrister]

So I've been using 338Canada, which is a polling aggregator.  That helps increase it's accuracy, but can also make it something of a lagging indicator.

The G&M article is pointed to two new polls - which are included in 338's analysis, but so are other older polls.

I always hesitate to say things are guaranteed.  Poilievre has never been through a national election, so who knows how he'll do under the pressure.  The Big Red Machine is pretty wily at politics.

Butyes - things look pretty bad for the Liberals.

[Grey Fox]

Liberals are still not campaigning.

"polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like "naive wishful thinking"

I do not believe a new Liberal leader will change anything. Either the Liberals start campaigning right now or we will have the same old change to Parliament.

Ontario will decide, once again, where the future of Canada is.  Recent history is really bad for our democracy and our country.

Btw, I don't get their Quebec data. There is no Jack Layton like figure walking in thru anyone's door. The results will look very similar to 2021. The situation is the same.

[crazy canuck]

So I've been using 338Canada, which is a polling aggregator.  That helps increase it's accuracy, but can also make it something of a lagging indicator.

The G&M article is pointed to two new polls - which are included in 338's analysis, but so are other older polls.

I always hesitate to say things are guaranteed.  Poilievre has never been through a national election, so who knows how he'll do under the pressure.  The Big Red Machine is pretty wily at politics.

Butyes - things look pretty bad for the Liberals.

I think that is the Prudent way the Conservatives should view the data.  They don't want to take anything for granted, and if anything they would want to keep the pressure on.  But for the Liberals, alarm bells need to be going off that are loud enough to penetrate the PMO.  If Trudeau is going to stay he needs to do something to turn the titanic now.  And if he is going to leave, he needs to give his successor enough time to also make the turn.

The iceburg is directly in front of their current path.

[Barrister]

Liberals are still not campaigning.

"polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like "naive wishful thinking"

I do not believe a new Liberal leader will change anything. Either the Liberals start campaigning right now or we will have the same old change to Parliament.

Ontario will decide, once again, where the future of Canada is.  Recent history is really bad for our democracy and our country.

Btw, I don't get their Quebec data. There is no Jack Layton like figure walking in thru anyone's door. The results will look very similar to 2021. The situation is the same.

So I feel like Singh has been fairly unimpressive, so yes he's not going anywhere.

I don't think anyone is expecting a 1984-like breakthrough in Quebec for the Conservatives.  But you guys have always been a little bit - parochial dare I say it?  You seem to like voting for French candidates.  So despite Poilievre being from Calgary originally, and his first language is English - I do wonder how well a guy with a French name might do in the next election.

[Jacob]

I expect language skills and cultural rapport counts for more than the name, but I guess we'll see.

It is my impression that there's a bit of Alberta - Quebec tension, which might factor in too.

[Barrister]

I expect language skills and cultural rapport counts for more than the name, but I guess we'll see.

It is my impression that there's a bit of Alberta - Quebec tension, which might factor in too.

Alberta has always had a love-hate scenario - that they're both pretty anti-federal government, albeit for totally different reasons.

Remember though POilievre mght originally be from Calgary, but now represents an Ottawa riding.