[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

The Federal Court just came down hard on the Federal government and cited a letter the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada sent to the PMO expressing his deep concern regarding the on going failure of the Feds to fill superior court vacancies in all of the provinces.

The Chief Justice described the situation as critical and described the ongoing failure to fill vacancies as "appalling" and "untenable".

In the case before the Federal Court, the government took the position that they could delay as much as they wanted and that they could wait until suitable candidates for appointment came to the attention of cabinet.

That was flatly rejected by the Federal Court and ordered that all vacancies be filled within a reasonable time.

The Conservatives will be able to make a lot of hay out of this.


https://decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf/decisions/en/item/524977/index.do#_Toc158641771

CC, God Bless you man - but that will not move the needle in the slightest.

I can hope?

[crazy canuck]

The Globe picked it up. Gifted for you

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/PSKX24LOJRB6XECBXGOYD2DXWI/

[Barrister]

12 conservatives in Quebec?

Yeah, no. The model still needs refining.

They're mostly all ridings the Conservatives already hold

Yes. What's PPs position on our milk supply system?

I wish the answer was different, but he has no plans to change it.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/matthew-lau-how-blue-is-pierre-poilievre

[Barrister]

The Globe picked it up. Gifted for you

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/PSKX24LOJRB6XECBXGOYD2DXWI/

But even though the Federal Court can send increasingly ominous decisions - there's nothing the courts can really do.  And I've never seen in my life any sign that the public cares about judicial vacancy.

I mean - it's an issue for you and I, but not 99.9% of Canadians.

[HVC]

A human trafficking case was thrown out in Toronto recently because of this. It was news for like a day.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/human-trafficking-case-collapses-in-latest-casualty-of-failure-to-appoint-enough-toronto-judges/article_35d49b1e-c68f-11ee-9c06-3bd4464d7be0.html#:~:text=A%20human%20trafficking%20case%20has,empty%20spots%20on%20the%20bench.

[Grey Fox]

12 conservatives in Quebec?

Yeah, no. The model still needs refining.

They're mostly all ridings the Conservatives already hold

Yes. What's PPs position on our milk supply system?

I wish the answer was different, but he has no plans to change it.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/matthew-lau-how-blue-is-pierre-poilievre

There's a chance then the Conservatives hold all 12 ridings. Especially the rural ones around Quebec city.

Don't wish for a stabilizing system to end. You might be surprised what instability does to other areas.

[crazy canuck]

Here is an analysis of all the recent polling data, bottom line is if Trudeau stays the liberals will suffer an historic defeat.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/OAQQZNRQEVA3DOMTHWCIX4S3QQ/

[Valmy]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

[Barrister]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

[Josquius]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

Surely he's pretty loaded?
He can do basically anything he wants.

Don't you have the lecture circuit over there?- or hell, he can get on it in the UK if he fancies.

[HVC]

Don't even think his replacement would do much better. 

[Barrister]

I hope he shows more sense that Uncle Joe and step down.

Not quite clear what Trudeau would do once he steps down though.  He's still a fairly young man (unlike Biden) at age 52.  He kind of meandered through life before politics, so it's not like he has a career to fall back to.  There's no real tradition of former PMs remaining in Parliament, unlike in the UK.  Heck he's now separated from his wife so he doesn't even have the "spend more time with family" excuse.

Surely he's pretty loaded?
He can do basically anything he wants.

Don't you have the lecture circuit over there?- or hell, he can get on it in the UK if he fancies.

OK, googling suggests he has more than I thought.  Forbes estimates $98 mil (US).

But that doesn't really answer the question.  OK, he doesn't need to work to put food on the table.  But what is he going to do?  It's one thing to hobnob with world leaders, another to go sit on a beach for the rest of your days.

And yes - he can hit the lecture circuit and make decent coin doing that - but that's still a huge step down in prestige.

Anyways - I'm just speculating on why Trudeau would want to stay, even though it otherwise seems obvious he should go.


Oh and by the way - it's pretty unlikely, but you always have to remember the story of his father, Pierre Trudeau.  After narrowly losing the 1979 election Pierre stepped down.  The PCs though famously miscounted votes on their first budget, leading to another election.  Liberals hadn't selected a new leader yet so Pierre came back, won another mandate and stayed on for 4 years.  (Of course by 1984 Trudeau stepped down again and the Liberals really did suffer the worst election defeat of all time).

[Barrister]

Don't even think his replacement would do much better. 

Quite possibly not.  A lot of it is baked in right now.

But there is a model to follow.  New leader is elected.  They bring in a new cabinet, have a budget with some new and different policies to pursue - then call an election to try and run on the new plan, and not just defending the last 10 years.

[crazy canuck]

Don't even think his replacement would do much better. 

Quite possibly not.  A lot of it is baked in right now.

But there is a model to follow.  New leader is elected.  They bring in a new cabinet, have a budget with some new and different policies to pursue - then call an election to try and run on the new plan, and not just defending the last 10 years.

Yes, and the goal now for the liberals is to have at least enough of a party left so that they can fight the  election after this one.

What the polling results show is that if Trudeau stays, the liberals will be destroyed to the point that it could take a while to rebuild the party.

It won't be PC level destruction, but it will be close.

[Barrister]

Don't even think his replacement would do much better. 

Quite possibly not.  A lot of it is baked in right now.

But there is a model to follow.  New leader is elected.  They bring in a new cabinet, have a budget with some new and different policies to pursue - then call an election to try and run on the new plan, and not just defending the last 10 years.

Yes, and the goal now for the liberals is to have at least enough of a party left so that they can fight the  election after this one.

What the polling results show is that if Trudeau stays, the liberals will be destroyed to the point that it could take a while to rebuild the party.

It won't be PC level destruction, but it will be close.

Are you sure?  Current projection would be 70 seats, which still makes them official opposition.

It not only wouldn't be PC levels of destruction, but the Liberals suffered worse defeats in 1984 (40 seats) and 2011 (34 seats).