[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

Vancouver did a pretty credible job to let our local convoy sympathizers feel less than welcome and effective.

Reports from Ottawa is that the counter protests had less of an impact.

[viper37]

I am not sure what court you are referring to Viper, organizers of unlawful protests are often sent to jail.  Look up the criminal trials for the people protesting the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline on Burnaby Mountain.

Gabriel Nadeau Dubois is now MNA, sole leader of Québec Solidaire.  Never did jail.
His terrorist faction was mostly let alone by courts, a few individuals who got some communal work here & there, nothing serious.

[viper37]

Well, they should be. There are nazis and fellow travelers in there. Cops aren't doing shit. It's been over a week.

The Libs told the province and the city not to intervene to avoid escalating things.

Nothing is going to happen until the Feds tels the city and the Province to move.  That is what GF meant by weak govt.

[Oexmelin]

Indeed. The real enemy are the students of 2012. They are the true terrorists. Not the poor, misunderstood fascists of the convoys. These people need our compassion and understanding. In fact, I am pretty sure that all that honking is done by antifa. Maybe even by American Democrats and illegal immigrants and union members and people who seek to limit driving speed on highways.

[Jacob]

Indeed. The real enemy are the students of 2012. They are the true terrorists. Not the poor, misunderstood fascists of the convoys. These people need our compassion and understanding. In fact, I am pretty sure that all that honking is done by antifa. Maybe even by American Democrats and illegal immigrants and union members and people who seek to limit driving speed on highways.

Yeah we had one guy get in our faces, trying to provoke a confrontation and he went to Antifa pretty quickly with his gishgallop.

[Grey Fox]

I am not sure what court you are referring to Viper, organizers of unlawful protests are often sent to jail.  Look up the criminal trials for the people protesting the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline on Burnaby Mountain.

Gabriel Nadeau Dubois is now MNA, sole leader of Québec Solidaire.  Never did jail.
His terrorist faction was mostly let alone by courts, a few individuals who got some communal work here & there, nothing serious.

Good god, le printemps érable really did a number on you.

[viper37]

Indeed. The real enemy are the students of 2012. They are the true terrorists. Not the poor, misunderstood fascists of the convoys.

Both are, equally.

These people need our compassion and understanding.

No more than other protesters who disturb the peace, commit acts of violence and/or vandalism.

UQAM even gave classes on civil disobience.  It was a virtue to be taught, back then, apparently.

In fact, I am pretty sure that all that honking is done by antifa.

I don't think so, but there is no doubt that there is a fair share of leftist among these people, the type of people who are vegans and pro alternative medicine. La Presse even had a decent column on this.  You should read it more often, it never hurt to diversify one's opinion on political subjects, if only to understand your ennemy's motiviations.

Maybe even by American Democrats and illegal immigrants and union members and people who seek to limit driving speed on highways.

Bernard "Rambo" Gauthier is from the FTQ Construction.  He's the one parading in Quebec city right now.  He's the one organizing this particular protest.  If you want to tell me it has nothing to do with unions, fine.  I just don't understand why he's still a member of this union if his actions are so abhorrent.  It just seems to me that intimidation and violence are very welcome in some cricles.  And not just on the rigth political spectrum.

As for Americans, there were Republican flags, so I guess there are some Americans who came and join the lot.  I don't know the specifics, I don't care about the protest.  Actually, I do care, I want it to stop, in Quebec city, in Ottawa, and everywhere else. 

But I'm more concerned about the one in Quebec city, since it's closer to home, it's my province, it's my government.  What other provinces and cities do, I am not really concerned/bothered by this.  Everyone should govern according to its own democratic vision.  If the Ottawa city government, the Ontario Government and the Liberal Government of Canada believe it is better to let this protesters be, so be it.  I am not enraged, nor incensed.  I am concerned for the part of my family that still lives close to downtown Ottawa, but I do not feel they threatened, nor do I feel they are in range to hear the horns, so I'm not about to join a militia to restore peace in the streets of Ottawa.  Not like in my current state I could do much, all a protester would have to do, was to blow very strongly in my direction to make me fall.  I'm about currently as strong as Joker in the Mass Effect series.

As for people who seek to limit speed on highways, a lot of people should be happy: no accidents on the 417 this week.

Look, you can caricature my position all you want, fine.  All I said was that these people weren't all fascists, it's a melting pot of just about everything.  I don't know who are the organizers of the Ottawa Protests.  I know who supports them, it's enough for me to be disgusted at these politicians as much as the protesters jamming the city and perturbing the peace. 

But again, this ain't my fight. 
Ontario is a sovereign government.  If they do not wish to intervene, it's their decision.
The Liberal Party of Canada is not my party.  If the Libs are too cowardly to send the RCMP and coordinate with OPP and Ottawa Police, it's a Liberal problem, not a Conservative problem.

That some elements in the party I like and support would support these people as a way to use them demonstrate political shortsightedness that I condemn as well as many people.  Our leader is gone, there is no one to quickly re-establish order.  It may look as if the crazies are winning right now, but the fight is just beginning.

It's not like you would vote for the Conservatives if Jesus Christ himself was coming back to lead them, so I really don't get how you are so upset at some of the party members supporting the illegal protesters.  O'Toole didn't even support them, but his mistake was to acknowledge them after condemning the rally.  The flip-flop on many issues is really what killed him, losing the support of many moderates who felt like he could no longer keep the crazies in line.

As for your association of the Conservative Party of Canada with fascism, like all leftwingers like to do, well, ok.  Think what you want.  But don't get offended the next time I call lefties "communists" for supporting the same causes and blinding their eyes to the violence of leftist protesters.  I mean, I could again point out that every leader of the party, since at least Mulroney, has expelled from the party every member who had open racist thoughts, it won't convince you the party is not evil, and it will only reinforce your conviction that this Canadian Party is a branch of the American Trumpist Party.

[viper37]

Good god, le printemps érable really did a number on you.

Seeing thugs attack random people and vandalize property always does a number of me.
Having the leader of these thugs get elected to the National Assembly reinforced my conviction of the moral rot of the left, always so willing to tolerate violence when it suits them.

[Jacob]

Viper - Oex called the convoy fascists, not the Conservative Party of Canada. Given some of the folks in the convoy flew swastika flags, I think it's fair to call at least them fascists?

[Jacob]

On data, this is interesting: https://abacusdata.ca/freedom-convoy-public-reaction-february-2022/

Yes, there's a good number of "green" types who sympathize with the convoy.

[Grey Fox]

@Viper The Ottawa Freedumb occupation is all over the place. Infoman showed a Patriote flag flying next to a Canadian one. They are mostly angry at everything. And the Nazis are exploiting the opportunity to do some recruitment and PR.

I am guessing that Candice Bergen's CPC won't kick her fascist friends out. Will kick us out tho.

[Jacob]

Interesting and pessimistic analysis by someone named Matt Gurney, from a framework that might appeal to grand strategy and strategy game players...

So here's where I think we are, this Saturday evening.

1. Ottawa has lost control of itself. Most of the crowd seems non-violent, even cheerful, but the city isn't in control of its territory, so the general non-violence is really just a lucky break.

2. The tactical situation for Ottawa is grim. Having lost control, it can't get it back without a confrontation, and it isn't confident it would win that confrontation. I think Sloly knows this. I think he's trying to convince his bosses.

3. Ottawa is going to need to be "rescued" by outside help. Again, Sloly knows this. That's why he's already talking about the military. I'd think a police effort with massive reinforcements is more likely than a military response, but I'm not too confident in that prediction.

4. In the main, though, while this isn't Jan. 6, per se, Canada doesn't have effective control over its capital. It can get it back. It will. But for now, it's lost it. Our government doesn't have control of the capital city. Super.

5. As far as I can tell, no one knows what to do about this. I think some of them have clued in to the problem (but not all). But I think a lot of our leaders might still be stuck in the bargaining stage, if they're even that far.

5.1. Before I was a journalist I was planning to be a military historian (before I realized that academia was somehow an even more doomed and futile career path than, uh, print media). I'm still a hobbyist. What we're seeing now is paralyzed command and control.

5.2. Sometimes command-and-control is paralyzed because communications go down. Sometimes the critical officers are killed or incapacitated. Hell, sometimes headquarters or a ship's bridge takes a direct hit. I don't think that's what this is. This is a reality shock.

5.3. I mean that the critical people are so surprised by what is happening that they are unable to fully perceive that it has even happened or imagine a response. This is a classic manifestation of a "outside context problem." (Look that up.)

5.4. Shock and confusion seems most manifest in Ottawa's government, but I'm not sure if anyone at the provincial or federal level really gets this yet either. I have had some indication that they are starting to figure it out. But they are days and days behind.

5.5. I suspect that in the coming days people will start getting on the same page, and then we can actually expect to possibly see some action. But I don't think enough of the politicians even share a common understanding of the problem yet to start on a solution.

6. Even if the crowds remain mostly — and yes, I know not entirely — peaceful, what's happening right now in Ottawa is absolutely catastrophic both for the rule of law and for the long-term security of Canada. Everyone sees this. This is a massive failure of the state.

6.1. This failure is being witness not just by the citizens, who are realizing that they are on their own and the government is helpless, but also by our enemies, foreign and domestic, who see the same thing. They are taking careful notes, be sure of that.

7. If there is any good news to be had, it's that notes were clearly taken by other Canadian jurisdictions, too. Other convoys in other major cities, including my hometown of Toronto, have been handled very differently. I imagine that will be the new rulebook going forward.

8. There is probably still a chance to resolve this non-violently. (Mostly.) But that window is closing. I think the danger of a large violent incident in Ottawa is growing fast.

9. I am interested to see action by citizens who realize the local officials have been defeated. Court action and lawsuits are interesting. Vigilante action is dangerous. I have no analysis or guesses here except that both will happen. And then we'll all see.

10. This or something like it was probably inevitable. And I think we will see more. How the next few days go in Ottawa will set the tone for how those future incidents go.

11. Political and policing careers are ending before our eyes. I don't know if the right careers will be the ones that end.

12. The Canadian political class is weak and naive. The entire purpose of it is dividing up the spoils in a country that is considered to be rich, stable and peaceful as just the natural, unwavering order of things. It's not. Our leaders and whole governments are clueless.

13. We cannot vote our way out of this mess. There isn't a critical mass of serious public safety and national security thinkers in any of our parties, governments or institutions (with very limited, insufficient exceptions). These muscles have simply atrophied from misuse.

14. I think we are in deep, deep shit.

- End -

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1490143947326377988?t=ObG3G7UjfdGMauLq21aVNw&s=19

I'm not sure I'm as pessimistic as he is, but I'm not sure I can articulate why. What's your take?

[Grey Fox]

I am pessimistic. I have already said many times that we have lost. This is one more nails in the coffins of Western democracy vs Autocracy. Canada, like the USA, will fall.

Sadly, it's fascism that will kill our society and not socialism

[Josephus]

When they write about the failure of democracy a few decades from now, one of the chief causes would be capitalism. Capitalism and democracy were always strange bedfellows. Capitalism preaches a "me first" attitude. What's in it for me? What do I gain from this? How can my neighbour make me richer? This is contrary to the inclusiveness and equality that democracy preaches. Maybe in its early years the two co-existed because communities were small and people needed each other; but as we grew far apart, that became less necessary. Social media and other communication techs have exacerbated this problem.

[garbon]

What alternative to capitalism has been successful?