[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Hey BB, is this revolt going to take down the Premier or is this just the extreme right of the party?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-mla-todd-loewen-steps-down-as-ucp-caucus-chair-calls-on-kenney/

You could look up about 10 posts to see my take on it.

Caucus doesn't have a lot of leverage to force Kenney to resign.  There's a leadership review scheduled for their next AGM in 2022. but by that point they'll be less than a year out from the next election so I can't see the party forcing a new leader at that point.

Plus this seems 100% related to covid restrictions - once those ease in the next month or two the anger from the right should die down.

UCP are trailing the NDP in the polls right now, but not by a lot - 43% to 40%.  In 2023 with Covid long gone and a rebound in energy prices it's not hard to see the UCP be re-elected.

[Barrister]

Also curious to see how Kenney responds.  He's put up with a lot of very public disagreements from his caucus, but calling for his resignation is step even further.  Witll this MLA be booted from caucus?

[crazy canuck]

(I asked BB about it a few posts above)

Many thanks

[crazy canuck]

Also curious to see how Kenney responds.  He's put up with a lot of very public disagreements from his caucus, but calling for his resignation is step even further.  Witll this MLA be booted from caucus?

I am not sure how they can be in caucus, but I also found it curious the demands that the Premier step down are being made publicly if the intent was to stay in caucus.   Trying to have their cake and eat it too?

[Barrister]

Also curious to see how Kenney responds.  He's put up with a lot of very public disagreements from his caucus, but calling for his resignation is step even further.  Witll this MLA be booted from caucus?

I am not sure how they can be in caucus, but I also found it curious the demands that the Premier step down are being made publicly if the intent was to stay in caucus.   Trying to have their cake and eat it too?

I re-read the article.  I don't think anyone ever said the intent was to "stay in caucus".  I mean - he posted this letter on Facebook, so obviously it was meant for the public.

[Jacob]

How much is this anti-lockdown anti-vax posturing damaging the UCP in the eyes of supporters who are not anti-lockdown and anti-vax?

I mean, it's damaging the party in my eyes but I'm not a core voter (by several metrics ) - but to what degree is it affecting those who are?

[Barrister]

How much is this anti-lockdown anti-vax posturing damaging the UCP in the eyes of supporters who are not anti-lockdown and anti-vax?

I mean, it's damaging the party in my eyes but I'm not a core voter (by several metrics ) - but to what degree is it affecting those who are?

I don't know.  And checking I can't see any election polling numbers since April - which feels like a long time ago.

I was certainly frustrated at his extreme reluctance to re-introduce more lockdown measures earlier, and I think a lot of more urban UCP supporters felt the same way.

[crazy canuck]

Also curious to see how Kenney responds.  He's put up with a lot of very public disagreements from his caucus, but calling for his resignation is step even further.  Witll this MLA be booted from caucus?

I am not sure how they can be in caucus, but I also found it curious the demands that the Premier step down are being made publicly if the intent was to stay in caucus.   Trying to have their cake and eat it too?

I re-read the article.  I don't think anyone ever said the intent was to "stay in caucus".  I mean - he posted this letter on Facebook, so obviously it was meant for the public.

I was referring to this bit in the article - Maybe there is a way to stay in the party as a sitting MLA but not be in the caucus?

In his letter, Loewen also resigned as caucus chair. He said he needed to do so to speak his mind but has no intention of leaving the party.

[Barrister]

Ah, I misread you.

I think it's more of a challenge or dare almost to Kenney - daring him to kick him out of the party.  After all there have been a bunch of public letters / complaints from UCP MLAs and Kenney has done nothing, saying a diversity of views is fine.

I mean there is a Wildrose Independence Party out there which some polls have at around 8%.  If MLAs start leaving to join that party that could doom the UCP in the next election no matter what.

[Jacob]

BC is going to add six more MLAs, but are passing a bill to leave it up to the non-partisan commission to determine how to do so best. This replaces an explicit instruction that low-density interior areas are not to be reduced. This means that those ridings could change, and result in fewer MLAs for low-density areas.

Currently, the lowest population riding has something like 15,000 people in it. Interior ridings average around 30,000 people, while urban and suburban go as high as 45,000. So the new law will probably shift a bit more power towards urban concerns vs rural ones.

This is, of course, being argued as a unfair by those set to lose influence and as fair by those set to gain it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-redistricting-electoral-commission-2021-1.6021555

[Grey Fox]

It's fair, says people 4500km away.

[Barrister]

Federally, some ridings have populations just about 30,000, while some of the densest ridings have up to 120,000.

[Valmy]

I mean shouldn't they try to draw the Ridings to be of roughly equal population?

[Jacob]

I mean shouldn't they try to draw the Ridings to be of roughly equal population?

There is the argument about protecting the interests of diverse groups and making sure they're represented. If you go purely population number based it means that the interests of people in the lower populated hinterlands will be completely suborned to the high population ares.

Kind of like how each of your States get two senators, no matter how many people live there.

[Barrister]

I mean shouldn't they try to draw the Ridings to be of roughly equal population?

So, you guys have a bicameral system, with the Congress represented by population, and the Senate represented by states.

Canada has a unicameral system (well we have a Senate with some minor powers, but can't meaningfully block legislation).  So we give smaller population areas more seats.  Two biggest examples are PEI is guaranteed 4 MPS even though purely by pop they should probably only get 1.  Each territory gets one MP as well, even if you combined them all together and they still might be a little under-sized.