[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

NDP will consider supporting the Liberals on a program of tariff relief.

Singh just never leans, does he...

If the tariffs are imposed, I would hope that all parties immediately return to Parliament to pass the necessary supports to get Canadians through this chaos. I have not yet heard the Conservatives' position on that.  They just keep going on about how Parliament should not have been prorogued. But I do hope they would not stoop to obtaining their own political advantage on an issue of such importance. Nothing would turn the Canadian public against the Conservatives quicker than doing something like that.

[crazy canuck]

They are inevitable. We should start talks to join the EU.

Freeing ourselves from the American fascists will be hard enough. We should not doing it alone.

Not a bad idea at this point.

We should also seek allies in non Republican States.

Its impractical to say the least.  Our economy is so enmeshed with the Americans, that it is going to be a nightmare trying to figure out point of origination for the purpose of imposing a tariff.  Almost nothing now is entirely produced exclusively in one or the other.

That is the main reason I think (hope) the talk of tariffs is just an overblown bluff.

And the other thing I will say (BB you are really going to want to read this) is I think the Premier of Alberta has it exactly right.  We need to be spending all our efforts on reminding our American neighbours how much we can help them with their strategic goals - read, they actually need us.  Rather than getting all belligerent with them.

[Barrister]

NDP will consider supporting the Liberals on a program of tariff relief.

Singh just never leans, does he...

If the tariffs are imposed, I would hope that all parties immediately return to Parliament to pass the necessary supports to get Canadians through this chaos. I have not yet heard the Conservatives' position on that.  They just keep going on about how Parliament should not have been prorogued. But I do hope they would not stoop to obtaining their own political advantage on an issue of such importance. Nothing would turn the Canadian public against the Conservatives quicker than doing something like that.

So just to be clear - the Liberals are already playing political games here, using the tariffs crisis to their own political advantage.

Ideally there should be some kind of all-party response.  My preference would be a united response, together with an agreed upon fairly quick election date.  No matter who wins it we can't afford a lame-duck government right now.

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-liberal-tariff-relief-1.7443908

NDP will consider supporting the Liberals on a program of tariff relief.

Singh just never leans, does he...


I ask without knowing the answer - providing tariff relief to Canadian industries pretty much just makes Trump's predictions about tariffs true, doesn't it?  That it will in fact be Canadians paying the tariffs, not US consumers?

Might it be that the Trump tariffs are just something we have to take (and retaliate)?

Tariffs on Canadian products means our products are more expensive to the US consumers.

Price elasticity comes into play, not immediately, but over some time.

Also, we will retaliate, so everything we buy from the US will cost us more.  Inflation will hit us hard.

What will happen is, gradually, Americans will turn to cheaper options than Canada since there are tariffs on our products and not others (or less on others).  They will buy Russian or Iran oil.  Currently, US refineries are configured for Canadian crude oil, but as it costs them more to import, they will shift to other, less costly sources.  Like Venezuela, maybe, since it's an ally of Russia.

Other products will come from elsewhere over time.  If our electricity costs too much (or if we cut it), they will resume fracking with Federal State incentives and restarted natural gas power plants.  Or (re)develop nuclear power generation.

If our steel costs too much, maybe there is some steel available elsewhere that is less costly, with less than 25% tariffs.  Maybe the Chinese have already found a way to avoid some of the tariffs, for example.

As it happens, we lose a lot of business volume, our shops reduce employment, and we enter a recession.  Until we can find new markets.  It will take time to bounce back, a lot of time.

Our commerce has always been north-south, it's never been east-west, due to geography.  It's always been much cheaper to put everything on a boat and float it up or down the rivers or the ocean than have it cross the mountains and the huge plains to reach one ocean or another.  It's been like that since the first European colonies and it won't change with a pipeline or two, subsidized or not.  Commerce flows like water, to the path of least resistance.

Just to be clear when I say "something we have to take" - it is as in "take it on the chin".  That maybe there's no way to avoid the punch, so we just have to accept we're going to be punched in the face and it's going to hurt a lot.

Fundamentally there are two ways out of this - either the US relents / Trump is thrown out of office, or we re-organize our economy to sell to other markets.  Unfortunately that's likely in large part China, and it would also take many years.

Worth remembering the US steel tariffs only lasted about one year before being lifted, so there are reasonable odds an agreement could be reached.  I couldn't possibly put a number to it however.

[crazy canuck]

NDP will consider supporting the Liberals on a program of tariff relief.

Singh just never leans, does he...

If the tariffs are imposed, I would hope that all parties immediately return to Parliament to pass the necessary supports to get Canadians through this chaos. I have not yet heard the Conservatives' position on that.  They just keep going on about how Parliament should not have been prorogued. But I do hope they would not stoop to obtaining their own political advantage on an issue of such importance. Nothing would turn the Canadian public against the Conservatives quicker than doing something like that.

So just to be clear - the Liberals are already playing political games here, using the tariffs crisis to their own political advantage.

Ideally there should be some kind of all-party response.  My preference would be a united response, together with an agreed upon fairly quick election date.  No matter who wins it we can't afford a lame-duck government right now.

Yes, then we are in complete agreement - If only we were in charge 

[Grey Fox]

And the other thing I will say (BB you are really going to want to read this) is I think the Premier of Alberta has it exactly right.  We need to be spending all our efforts on reminding our American neighbours how much we can help them with their strategic goals - read, they actually need us.  Rather than getting all belligerent with them.

The risk with this strategy is that Trump is not a reliable interlocutor. If we push too much on how good friends we are, he might decide a military conquest is a better option for his goals. There is no friends in Trump's world. Only sycophants, enemies and the in group he wants to be part of.

[Barrister]

And the other thing I will say (BB you are really going to want to read this) is I think the Premier of Alberta has it exactly right.  We need to be spending all our efforts on reminding our American neighbours how much we can help them with their strategic goals - read, they actually need us.  Rather than getting all belligerent with them.

The risk with this strategy is that Trump is not a reliable interlocutor. If we push too much on how good friends we are, he might decide a military conquest is a better option for his goals. There is no friends in Trump's world. Only sycophants, enemies and the in group he wants to be part of.

I don't know exactly how much you balance it, but we have to pursue a good cop, bad cop approach.  On the one hand responding in kind which will create political pressure from affected US industries, and on the other hand reminding them what good friends and allies we are.

[Grey Fox]

Yeah, I agree. I guess Marlaina Smith has the role of the good cop in our coalition. Scott Moe is of course trying to steal it.

First thing we should stop exporting to the US is potasse.

[viper37]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-liberal-tariff-relief-1.7443908

NDP will consider supporting the Liberals on a program of tariff relief.

Singh just never leans, does he...


I ask without knowing the answer - providing tariff relief to Canadian industries pretty much just makes Trump's predictions about tariffs true, doesn't it?  That it will in fact be Canadians paying the tariffs, not US consumers?

Might it be that the Trump tariffs are just something we have to take (and retaliate)?

Tariffs on Canadian products means our products are more expensive to the US consumers.

Price elasticity comes into play, not immediately, but over some time.

Also, we will retaliate, so everything we buy from the US will cost us more.  Inflation will hit us hard.

What will happen is, gradually, Americans will turn to cheaper options than Canada since there are tariffs on our products and not others (or less on others).  They will buy Russian or Iran oil.  Currently, US refineries are configured for Canadian crude oil, but as it costs them more to import, they will shift to other, less costly sources.  Like Venezuela, maybe, since it's an ally of Russia.

Other products will come from elsewhere over time.  If our electricity costs too much (or if we cut it), they will resume fracking with Federal State incentives and restarted natural gas power plants.  Or (re)develop nuclear power generation.

If our steel costs too much, maybe there is some steel available elsewhere that is less costly, with less than 25% tariffs.  Maybe the Chinese have already found a way to avoid some of the tariffs, for example.

As it happens, we lose a lot of business volume, our shops reduce employment, and we enter a recession.  Until we can find new markets.  It will take time to bounce back, a lot of time.

Our commerce has always been north-south, it's never been east-west, due to geography.  It's always been much cheaper to put everything on a boat and float it up or down the rivers or the ocean than have it cross the mountains and the huge plains to reach one ocean or another.  It's been like that since the first European colonies and it won't change with a pipeline or two, subsidized or not.  Commerce flows like water, to the path of least resistance.

Just to be clear when I say "something we have to take" - it is as in "take it on the chin".  That maybe there's no way to avoid the punch, so we just have to accept we're going to be punched in the face and it's going to hurt a lot.

Fundamentally there are two ways out of this - either the US relents / Trump is thrown out of office, or we re-organize our economy to sell to other markets.  Unfortunately that's likely in large part China, and it would also take many years.

Worth remembering the US steel tariffs only lasted about one year before being lifted, so there are reasonable odds an agreement could be reached.  I couldn't possibly put a number to it however.

Trump #1 was different than Trump #2.

He is there to dismantle the Federal government and finance what's left with tariffs instead of income tax.

He's not going to stop since there's no one to make him stop.  He's surrounded by yes man, and anyone who questions him is threatened so they fall in line.

The prisoners released were as much a threat to Democrats as to his own party.  After all, they wanted to hang Mike Pence and some Republican congress people too, not just the Dems.

They fall in line, or the best thing that can happen is they are on an ejectable seat for the next election cycle.  The next step is constant death threats for them and their family.

The Proud Boys are back and they're not hiding themselves.

We have no allies among the Republicans, no friends.  There is no negotiation with organized crime, you in particular must know this.  What kind of deal do you suppose we can achieve with these people?  Smith already humiliated herself by trying to lick Trump's boots and betray Canada.  What did that give Alberta?  What did she gain?

I think that publicly, nothing should be off the table, as much as it hurt us.

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-tariff-plans-senate-1.7444844

Harold Lutnick, Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, outlines Trump's "plans" for Canada.

Some tariffs to come in Feb 1 to deal with border security.  Canada can avoid those if it convinces Trump personally we're dealing with it.  Apparently this has led Canadian officials to sending videos to the US.

But then April 1 deals with trade more broadly.  They point to dairy and auto manufacturing.