Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

Wouldn't it make more sense for Orban to combine the Presidency with his Chancellor's position?

Give it some time.

[Tamas]

Altough I would hate to see Orban do that, as it would be one of the many steps toward his life-long reign, I am not opposed to switching to a Presidental system (ala USA).

Our elections and power structures are about leadership personalities anyway, and seeing how many Hungarians are perfectly fine with the reign of a Dear and Sacread Leader, I think it would suit our collective psyche better.

[citizen k]

Schmitt resigns.   

[Tamas]

Rumor says, that Orban told the others of the faction behind close doors today, that he needs a President "to the right of him [politically]".

If true, that leaves out a lot of semi-acceptable party functionaries of him, let alone any neutral possibilities.

A major political analyst is suspecting two possible candidates - the interim President Laszlo Kover, and the Transylvania priest and Hungarian politican, Laszlo Tokes.

The latter is quite a wild guess I think, but I could see happen.

Tokes is... well, I would be happy to diss him, as a militant nationalist, who divided the Hungarian minority in Romania almost enough to destroy their political weight (which is considerable, by sheer numbers alone - they often ended up being the balance-deciders in elections there).
But the thing is, he kind of founded the Hungarian political presence there. Or at least were the figurehead of it. During the mad, last days of the Romanian communist pocket-Stalin (won't attempt to spell his name), he was among the ones to start the final hostilities by resisting arrest or something like that. His home became a foothold of resistance as others protected him.

So, I hate his current stance, and general political views and attitude, but I can't help feeling a good deal of respect for him - unlike most of the politicans of the day, he is saying the same things he was saying back when it was very dangerous to say them, and he put his life on the line for the things he believed in.

That said, over the years he has become totally exposed financially and politically to Orban, so I am convinced that he is in the PM's pockets.

Kover, on the other hand, is a lunatic. He has always been the party's face toward the radicals. God damn, he recently visited Slovakia officially, as Chairman of Parlaiment, and managed to publicly express views how (then commie) Hungary should had invaded Slovakia when the Slovaks broke our deal regarding a big-ass hydro power plant, which we wanted (and did) cancel.

That episode was back during the last years of Communism. The hydro plant would had been a massive undertaking on the Hungarian-Slovakian border, it could had produced a lot of electricity, but opposition forces quickly rallied behind the handful of greens opposing it, as they saw the cracks on the regime's power and resolve. The whole thing became a symbol of resisting Teh Government, and as such was cancelled.

[Tamas]

In other news, the hipster urban leftie party, LMP, tried to pull a stunt - in 2009 FIDESZ focused anti-government feelings in a retarded "social referendum", destroying any hints of progress the socialists managed to wheelcart together in 8 years.
LMP wanted to copy this - since FIDESZ made a lot of changes to the labor laws (sucky ones, but considering how underskilled our workforce is, probably necessary - you can't have the plans of running a country on china-style slave labor, and having laws which forbid you that), they came up with a bunch of referendum questions to do these, and some other (like education) stuff back. Which would have ruined the budget, but that didn't stop FIDESZ back in the day, so I guess they thought, why should it stop them, right?

But they needed 200k signatures on their petition for national referendum, and only got 160k in time.

There are 3 alternatives why they failed (beside the people liking FIDESZ so much), I think it's a combination of all:
-people just don't care anymore
-they were afraid of basically registering with name and andress as active opposition. Who knows where that list can end up once submitted to the office handling it
-they know the economy and the budget is in shambles and do not want the few cuts done back so the shit gets even higher

[Tamas]

The aformentioned Mr. Kover was interviewed by Le Monde shortly before this incident, it was published yesterday.

He told that the IMF has to give us a loan because they gave to Nigeria and Chad as well, and they didn't ask questions there.

It's funny because otherwise they loudly proclaim again and again how the EU and the IMF seek to make us into a colony, how our economy roars with succcess, and how much they do NOT need the IMF loan.

Then they go around DEMANDING that the IMF gives them money, and give it without any questions or prerequisites.

Like a bunch of gypsies.

[Tamas]

heh, this is a very minor thing and I only saw the TV coverage of it via a blog, but to illustrate the state of things here, a Jobbik (nazi party) MP found it important to remember, in Parlaiment, the 130th anniversary of the disappearance of a 14 years old peasant girl in some godforsaken village.

Why? Because back in the days, the popular version was that the local jews kidnapped and sacrificed her for some religious ritual. It became a nation-wide scandal. Even exiled Kossuth wrote about the issue, calling it a medieval prejustice and the shame of our nation.
But hey, trust the nazis to campaign with something which was backward even here, 130 years ago.

Amazing.

More info here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiszaeszl%C3%A1r_Affair

[Razgovory]

heh, this is a very minor thing and I only saw the TV coverage of it via a blog, but to illustrate the state of things here, a Jobbik (nazi party) MP found it important to remember, in Parlaiment, the 130th anniversary of the disappearance of a 14 years old peasant girl in some godforsaken village.

Why? Because back in the days, the popular version was that the local jews kidnapped and sacrificed her for some religious ritual. It became a nation-wide scandal. Even exiled Kossuth wrote about the issue, calling it a medieval prejustice and the shame of our nation.
But hey, trust the nazis to campaign with something which was backward even here, 130 years ago.

Amazing.

More info here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiszaeszl%C3%A1r_Affair

Perhaps they can commemorate the day when a brave mob armed with torches and pitchforks stormed a castle of a Jewish doctor-scientist because he was  suspected of creating monsters using stolen body parts.

[Tamas]

Unleash Marty! The police again banned Budapest Pride. Last year the court had them allow it.

They say it is because of their planned path blocking traffic. Of course, at least allegedly, that route is the exact same as the huge government-supporting march had, and the police had no problems with that.

[Tamas]

It appears, in an attempt to milk the EU talk on a financial transaction tax, the government plans to introduce something called that, but much wider: they are planning to tax, well, everything: wire transfers, bill paying via checks, and the like, with a 0.5-1% tax.

Great.

[Tamas]

Also, since the mass transit company (city-owned) of Budapest is so out of money, their underground trains are starting to fall apart, more and more malfunctions are happening.
The drivers have been issued gasmask, so they can flee the cockpit in case of a fire 

[Tamas]

Ok, it has happened: I agree with an Orban rhetoric.

They have been getting a lot of flack regarding their flat income tax. Which is of course isn't really flat, since there is a "solidarity" whatever to be payed after a certain income - they added that after it was obvious the budget would collapse otherwise.

Since while they were quick to introduce the flat income tax, they shied away from actually following it with budget cuts.

ANYWAY, some minor newspaper made an interview with him, and he outlined that "social justice" should not be required at the income tax, in his words "when people earn their money" but at the VAT "when they spend it".
So he would prefer multiple levels of VAT accompanying a flat tax, with subsistence goods having a minimal amount, and luxury goods a very high one.

That kind of makes sense. Altough I am not sure why the fuck it would be needed to raise any kind of VAT abote the 27% we have now, but in general I much prefere VAT over income tax, especially in a country like this where everyone cheats and lies about their taxable income. It is much harder to cheat VAT.

[Tamas]

Speaking of agriculture and linked industries, he had the usual populist shit of eating good local food instead of trashy foreign stuff (good idea, except that only one parameter matters to Hungarians: the price. If the foreign shit looks bad, tastes worse, and comes from dubious sources, but have a few percent lower price than the good quality one, the foreign shit will be bought).
He vowed to support the "reamining Hungarian-owned businesses" (yeah, they were big on handing out land to their pals during their last government as well).
He also said:
"I am sure we can turn this area upside down as well" 

[The Brain]

Boy, you turn me.

[Sheilbh]

I think the Daily Mail's the first Western publication to come out in support of Orban.  I'm just surprised they kept the EUSSR theme as subtext
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2127652/The-new-imperialism-How-Brussels-bullies-Budapest-conforming-European-values.html

The new imperialism. How Brussels bullies Budapest for not conforming to 'European values'
By ANDREA HOSSÓ
PUBLISHED: 11:23, 10 April 2012 | UPDATED: 11:24, 10 April 2012
 
Andrea Hossó is an economist. She was born in Hungary, gained her MSc in finance in London and has worked in the City for over ten years.

Something grave is happening around Hungary.

The Council of the EU is threatening the suspension of one third of the country's cohesion funds while the European Commission starts intrusive infringement procedures for a variety of questionable reasons.

The European Parliament, meanwhile, is conducting session after session of frenzied attacks on the legitimately-elected Hungarian prime minister, calling his country undemocratic and dictatorial.

The Venice Commission is issuing scathing criticism on a raft of new laws and the new constitution passed by a democratically-elected parliament replacing the one concocted by the communist dictatorship propped up by occupying Soviet forces.

Analysts are grimly advising the market to play against the Hungarian currency  to put pressure on the Hungarian government to conclude negotiations with the IMF about a new credit package that many hope will tie its hands with economic conditions deemed proper by foreign investors.

The world press is loud with criticism from all walks of life bordering on the absurd from a US professor complaining of Hungarians' bad manners to a Dutch radio host heaping unimaginable insults on the whole country.

The European Handball  Federation wants to fine a Hungarian team because its fans sing the Hungarian national anthem before a game.

There is no end to the bewildering mantra from all corners deploring Hungary's 'descent into the abyss' and its lack of 'European values'.

Who could blame the unsuspecting reader for believing that some horror is shaping up in the bosom of the European Union? The picture is indeed frightening even for someone familiar with Hungary, but for quite different reasons.

The first doubt in the objective observer's mind is the legitimacy of the accusations. What democratic ideals can unelected Brussels bureaucrats who fear nothing more than referenda hold up for others? What kind of disinterested moral judgment can we expect from a bureaucracy that condemns Hungary for failing to conform to 'European' values but remains silent in the face of serious discrimination against ethnic Hungarians in other EU countries?

The EU finds nothing objectionable in Slovakia's stripping ethnic Hungarian citizens of their Slovak citizenship if they apply for Hungarian citizenship, although Slovakia generally recognizes double citizenship for all other citizens.

It has nothing to say about Slovakia's language laws that punish ethnic Hungarians for using their native tongue, or Romania's erasing centuries-old Hungarian tombs in cemeteries.

Amazingly, the EU found no reason to worry about European values in 2006 when the then Socialist government in Hungary ordered police to attack peaceful civil demonstrators who were beaten up, tortured and imprisoned with a brutality redolent of the vilest dictatorships.

Hungarians cannot help noticing the double standard applied to their country in every aspect. The EU wants to suspend cohesion funds for Hungary, one of the very few EU countries that actually kept its deficit to GDP ratio at 3% in 2011 and is likely to keep it so in 2012. 

Recently Spain got approval from the very same EU to increase its 2012 deficit to 5.3% from the targeted 4.4%.

The punishment seems cynical in the midst of a protracted economic crisis where for years now EU governments and the US have been applying countercyclical measures keeping interest rates very low and pumping ample liquidity into their economies. Yet, the EU insists that Hungary keep its deficit under 3% by way of imposing further austerity on a population whose living standards have fallen to levels last seen in the 1970s.

The besieged government would like a standby credit agreement with the IMF to calm the markets agitated by the constant stream of bad news and be able to access the markets on less than punitive terms. After all, the ECB has injected  over a trillion euros of liquidity into eurozone banks to reassure markets and prop up ailing eurozone sovereign bonds.

However, the IMF whose mandate is purely financial and economic refuses to negotiate with the Hungarian government until it has complied with the EU's political demands regarding laws and constitution. Even then, it is unwilling to provide Hungary with a mere credit line as requested but insists on the country accepting a credit package, of course, with strings attached. One of the most important economic policy conditions is the lifting of the special levies imposed on some sectors.

We are now getting closer to the real reasons of the furore surrounding Hungary.

In order to better understand the picture it is necessary to look back into the economic history of the past twenty years. The economic transition of Central Europe from planned to market economy has been hailed a great success. Uncontrolled privatization went nowhere farther than in Hungary. Successive governments heeded the advice of foreign advisers and international organizations  deeming the speedy and often very cheap sale of assets to foreign companies the best way to 'catch up' with Western economic development.

Looking around twenty years later Hungarians find a bizarre economic landscape dominated by a handful of big foreign companies and huge shopping malls with barely a single local name or product. Whole sectors have been wiped out and quite a few remaining ones are almost wholly foreign-dominated. Unemployment is high, the huge external debt inherited and inexplicably taken over from the Soviet era is ballooning fed by intercompany loans from Western companies to their Hungarian subsidiaries. Economic growth is languishing, foreign companies' profits are repatriated and little is recirculated into the local economy.

When the current government came into power in 2010, it found a country in tatters with a dramatically increased external debt burden and huge swathes of the population sinking into inexorable poverty where families – educated, working people – have difficulties paying their utility or dental bills.

In its efforts to reduce debt and thus vulnerability, the government decided to introduce some measures designed to return the economy to growth. Amongst these measures is the temporary windfall tax  on the financial, retail, energy and telecoms sectors, which had been exceptionally profitable.  Such taxes are not without precedent, and banking sector taxes have since been introduced in various European countries.

However, nowhere have they fallen mostly on foreign shoulders because nowhere else is foreign ownership as dominant as in Hungary. Both the IMF and the EU mention  Hungary's 'unorthodox' move taxing mostly 'foreign' companies but fail to mention that these foreign companies have literally taken over almost whole economic sectors. It seems that it is not so much the imposition of windfall taxes but the fact that foreigners have to pay these that they find objectionable.

The rarely mentioned fact is that foreign companies in Hungary have got used to generous tax holidays and financial incentives, and a generally lax operating environment. The special taxes have raised the spectre of a new situation where these privileges and the usual level of excess profits might be reduced.

Thirteen foreign companies in Hungary wrote to the EC in 2010 demanding sanctions against Hungary of the special taxes. Their countries support them and use the EU's institutions to put pressure on Hungary to lift these burdensome taxes and return to the status quo.

Hungary is vulnerable through its heavy indebtedness. It has never been granted debt forgiveness as Poland in 1991 or Greece now. Some financial analysts have recently commented that improving market conditions would be unwelcome as Hungary could then commercially finance itself and would not have to agree to the IMF's conditions. This, in turn, would also lift the urgent need to comply with the EU's political demands which often verge on open interference with Hungarian sovereignty.
This particular configuration is a unique opportunity for the EU to show that small member states have no right to pursue any measure of political or economic independence. 

A sweeping offensive of pejorative news and punitive measures is creating an atmosphere where financial markets become inaccessible and the country can be forced to return to the status quo: economic conditions favouring foreign capital and a political environment preparing the abolition of nations states.

This is colonization in the 21st century. Hungary, and indeed Central Europe, expected better in 1990.